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Rings to Roofs, Part I: One Million Homes Through Marriage

August 2026 | by Arthur Gailes, Brad Wilcox, Ed Pinto

August 2026

by Arthur Gailes, Brad Wilcox, Ed Pinto

New AEI/IFS report: If marriage recovered to its 2000 level among working-age adults, it would be the equivalent of building one million homes in metros experiencing a housing shortage.

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Executive Summary

The American Enterprise Institute's Housing Center has spent the past five years proposing solutions for the housing supply shortage in cities and states around the country. In large part, these solutions revolve around ending the ban on starter homes—making it legal to build naturally affordable homes that young and working families can afford to buy and rent. Legalizing starter homes is the single most important action local governments can take to improve housing affordability for young and working families.

However, there's another path to affordability for individual Americans: getting married. In Rings to Roofs, the AEI Housing Center and the Institute for Family Studies examine how increasing marriage rates would make housing more affordable, both for people getting married and for everybody else. 

Marriage has three benefits for the housing market. First, increasing marriages would decrease the number of homes required in the housing market, by consolidating two households into one. This acts like a supply-side solution, reducing our national shortage. Second, when two working people get married, their household income rises, meaning they can afford to live in larger and higher-quality homes. Finally, the homes that would be freed up by a marriage recovery are among the most affordable in the country, making marriage both an affordability and supply solution. 

In Part I of Rings to Roofs, we focus on the supply-side benefits of marriage. If marriage recovered to its 2000 level among working-age adults, it would be the equivalent of building one million homes in metros experiencing a housing shortage. Beyond the benefits of getting married itself, a marriage recovery should begin with Americans themselves, and entire markets would reap the rewards.

Key Takeaways

  • 1 million homes would be freed up by returning marriage to its 2000 level among working-age adults, about 18% of the national housing shortage.
    • The partnered-share gap opened over 24 years, from 2000 to 2024. Closing it over the same span annualizes to 44,800 homes a year and lifts the refined marriage rate from 31.2 to 33.9 per 1,000 unmarried women (age 15+).
    • Returning to 1980 levels of marriage would reduce the shortage by 2 million homes.
       
  • Reaching the 2000 benchmark takes about 4.9 million additional marriages and frees about 1.08 million homes, roughly one home per 4.6 marriages.
     
  • Homes freed up by marriage tend to be smaller, less expensive, and rented: about 82% are rentals at a median rent near $1,070 (the 28th percentile of local rents), and over half sit in multifamily buildings.
     
  • The annual Rings to Roofs estimate equates to roughly 80% of new Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) construction. In subsidy-equivalent terms, Rings to Roofs produces a value of roughly $2,700 per marriage annually (vouchers), or a one-time federal $30,000 cost (LIHTC).
     
  • Marriage differs from other demand-side solutions. It raises a household's buying power while simultaneously reducing the number of households, creating affordability and easing a shortage instead of bidding up prices.
     
  • The Rings to Roofs data dashboard shows the benefits of a marriage recovery on the housing shortage and the new couples in states and metros throughout the country.

 

 

Introduction

The married share of working-age Americans has been falling for over 50 years. At the same time, the American family has been shrinking. Average household size has fallen by 21%, from 3.11 persons in 1970 to 2.46 today. The number of single adults (25-64) has risen from 18 million (20 percent) in 1970 to 68 million (39 percent) in 2024. We are not only bowling alone, as Robert Putnam famously put it. We are increasingly living alone.

The United States has a housing shortage of roughly 6 million homes (estimates range from 2 million to 8 million). Shrinking household size sits behind part of that demand, along with a growing overall population. Much of the housing debate responds to the shortage as a problem of construction, how to build more, and more affordably. The AEI Housing Center has spent years on that side of the ledger, documenting how restrictive zoning and land-use rules suppress the starter homes young families can afford, and showing how starter homes and by-right development could unlock naturally affordable supply without subsidy. The legalization of by-right starter-home construction remains the single most important (and popular) policy change available to close the housing shortage.

But supply is only half the story, and many advocates also propose demand-side solutions to housing affordability, mainly subsidies, vouchers, and lower interest rates. These efforts would give households more buying power. When supply is constrained, however, that buying power capitalizes into price: the family that receives the benefit may be helped, but overall affordability holds flat or erodes, because more money is now chasing the same fixed stock of homes. We saw this in the late 2010’s, when home prices climbed as the market responded to falling interest rates. This is the curse of demand-side solutions in a shortage environment.

A marriage recovery avoids that curse. It raises buying power, because two incomes combine. But marriage also reduces the number of households, because two families become one. So, unlike a voucher, marriage lowers the total quantity of homes demanded even as it raises what each remaining household can afford. Increasing marriage reinforces the downward pull new construction exerts on prices, rather than working against it, which suits it to a shortage in a way ordinary demand-side policy is not suited. Marriage shrinks the shortage and strengthens the family at the same time.

Rings to Roofs, Mapped

The housing supply benefit of marriage is simple. For example, James and Elizabeth each rent their own apartment. They marry, move in together, and one of the two apartments goes back on the market for the next household in line. Two homes become one. With a million such marriages, the housing shortage falls by a million homes.


Not every marriage would do this, and in fact most would not. A home is freed up only when both partners give up a home of their own, so that two people who occupied two homes then occupy one. A couple where one person was living with parents, for example, might not free up a home at all if that person’s former room remains vacant. Among single working-age adults, about 57% live in arrangements that would free a unit, so if marriages formed at random, only about a third would free up a home.

Rings to Roofs measures the effect of moving today’s partnered share back to its level in 2000, across states and metros. In 2000, 66% of working-age adults (ages 25 to 64) were married or cohabiting; today 61% are. Closing that 5-point gap implies 4.9 million additional marriages, involving 10 million adults. Counting only homes freed up in markets that actually have a shortage (a home freed up where there is no deficit does not count), the result is over 1 million homes, or 18% of the national shortage. Over the 24 years the gap took to open, that is about 44,800 homes a year.

 


Of the roughly one million homes, about 989,000 are in metropolitan areas, which hold 5.7 million of the six-million-unit national shortage. As single adults cluster in metropolitan areas, Rings to Roofs tends to free up homes largely where the shortage is worst. In over 100 large metros— including Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Antonio, and Detroit—a return to 2000 partnering levels would close the housing shortage entirely. These tend to be metros where the shortage is small relative to population, not necessarily where the marriage decline has been steepest: a metro’s housing shortage-to-size ratio predicts whether Rings to Roofs closes the gap better than the depth of its marriage decline does. 
 

Who Frees a Home, & Which Homes Get Freed Up

Above, we deal exclusively with the supply-side effects of a marriage recovery on housing. Next, we carry Rings to Roofs to its logical next step: how would increasing marriage affect the income—and therefore buying power—of the people who would get married? Table 2 describes the current population of married, cohabiting, and single adults, the latter split by whether those single adults live in unit-freeing arrangements. 
 


To say anything about people’s income and buying power after marriage, we must also model who might marry in a marriage recovery. We match the 4.9 million implied marriages, assortatively, sorting partners by income and education the way real marriages tend to, and report the outcomes for the resulting marriages. That lets us describe both the overall population the marriages are drawn from and the particular people most likely to marry. 

These 39 million unit-freeing adults, as individuals, are not high earners on average. Their median personal income is about $45,000 and their median household income about $61,000, compared to $132,000 for currently married couples, who pool two incomes. About 37% hold a college degree and 53% of the renters are rent-burdened. They already occupy the less expensive end of the housing stock: they are mostly renters who rent at $1,480, against $1,850 for married households.

When two current singles marry, we assume the couple gives up the least valuable of their two homes, the lower-rent unit when both rent and the rental when tenure is mixed, since owned homes turn over less readily. Profiled that way, the freed homes tend to be smaller, less expensive, and rented. About 82% are rentals, at a median rent of $1,070, the 28th percentile of their local rental stock; the owned remainder has a median value of $200,000, the 27th percentile. Furthermore, 58% are in multifamily (2+) buildings, and about 31% are studios or one-bedrooms. The picture barely changes whether we assume that couples pair at random or sort by income and education, so the result does not depend on guessing who marries whom.
 

 

Marriage does more than free up a unit. By combining two incomes, it also moves many of these couples up the housing ladder, turning renters into plausible starter-home buyers. That complementarity, between building starter homes and increasing marriage rates, is the subject of our next report.
 

What a Million Homes Are Worth

Large federal programs already exist to provide subsidies to reduce the rent burden on lower-income households, and they make a natural yardstick for the homes Rings to Roofs would free. The comparison can be drawn two ways: as a share of the housing those programs supply, and in the dollars to provide a unit.

As a share of supply, a million homes is a large amount on any measure. Counted as a stock, it equals about 47% of the entire Housing Choice Voucher program, the nation's largest rental-assistance effort, which serves about 2.3 million households. Counted year by year, the roughly 44,800 homes freed up annually equates to about 80% of new LIHTC construction, the largest federal program for building affordable rental housing, which places some 50,000 to 60,000 newly built units in service a year. 

We can also quantify the value of a unit gained by increasing marriage, in dollars saved in annual subsidies. 

  • A voucher is an operating subsidy, about $12,100 per household each year for as long as the household holds it; the million freed homes through increasing marriage would supply as much housing as roughly $13 billion a year in federal spending on vouchers. 
     
  • LIHTC is a production subsidy, paid once and claimed over 10 years; building the equivalent supply would run about $11 to $13 billion a year in total development cost, roughly $250,000 to $300,000 per unit and far more in coastal markets, about half of it a federal contribution. 
     
  • The two subsidies are not always alternatives, since about 50% of LIHTC tenants need monthly rental assistance, usually in the form of a voucher, on top of the credit to afford the restricted rent.

The same arithmetic can be reversed to price the value the government should place on marriage for housing. Rings to Roofs proposes about 4.9 million marriages to free up about a million homes, so each additional marriage is worth, in housing terms, roughly a fifth of a home. Valued as the voucher subsidy it spares, that is about $2,700 a year in perpetuity per marriage, almost all federal money. Valued as the cost of building the equivalent LIHTC unit, about $55,000 to $65,000 once, of which roughly $25,000 to $35,000 is federal. Those are the housing-supply dividends of a single marriage, before counting anything marriage does for the couple themselves.

One consideration matters for how literally to read these amounts. Housing vouchers and LIHTC are means-tested, aimed squarely at very-low-income households. Rings to Roofs does not target any income group. The homes it frees reach the lower-cost segment through filtering rather than through an eligibility rule, and a later report will show that the couples involved are themselves disproportionately lower-income. The programs and the marriages therefore serve overlapping, rather than identical populations; the dollar figures reflect the value of the supply rather than equating a freed-up home with a subsidized unit household for household.

Why Marriage?

The housing policy discussion has, generally, not paid enough attention to the role that marriage plays in driving demand and supply. But the “white picket fence” trope—the idea that owning your own home is a crucial piece of the American Dream and the Declaration’s Pursuit of Happiness—is based on fact. Homeownership has always stood in for security and success in the American imagination, and it still does: 94% of Americans say owning a home is part of the American Dream, ranking it behind only financial security and personal freedom among what success means to them.

For many Americans, marriage is what turns that dream into a plan. Getting married pushes people to actually go looking for a house, not just admire the idea of one. Part of it is that married couples are far more likely to have children, and parenthood is a well-documented trigger for seeking out a single-family home with a yard and a school district, as Brad Wilcox and Maria Baer have shown. Part of it, too, is the pooling of two incomes and two sets of savings, which puts a down payment within reach in a way it is not for a single earner, as Scott Winship has pointed out. 

But marriage doesn’t just make the math easier when it comes to affording a home—it changes the people doing the math. Married men work more hoursget fired less often, and earn a well-documented “marriage premium” over their single peers, whether from specialization at home, added workplace stability, or some combination of the two. That extra income shows up alongside new habits of saving, budgeting, and delayed gratification—the accumulated sacrifices that make a mortgage, and then years of mortgage payments, sustainable in a way they rarely are for one person alone. In all these ways, “putting a ring on it” makes it easier to put a roof over your head.

Conclusion

Rings to Roofs reframes part of the housing shortage as a question of family formation. Since 2000, working-age Americans have married and partnered less, and a population that lives in smaller groups needs more homes to go around. Restoring the partnered share to where it stood a single generation ago would free up roughly a million existing homes, and they would tend to be the smaller, less expensive rentals where the shortage runs deepest and where neither private builders nor public subsidy reach easily.

All this is possible because marriage makes it easier for men and women to afford a home and increases their motivation to seek a home of their own. But marriage is also a good in its own right, in addition to its benefits for the housing market. Married adults report higher levels of happinessfinancial security, and stability for themselves and their children than their unmarried peers. So a housing agenda that makes marriage easier to choose, rather than harder, does more than just advance housing. It also makes the American Dream and the Pursuit of Happiness more accessible to countless men, women, and children across the nation. 

Marriage should be treated as a first-order concern in solving America’s housing crisis.

Editor’s NoteThis is the first in a series. Later reports will cover how building more starter homes reinforces marriage, and why marriage and starter homes are particularly effective solutions for the lowest-income Americans in the housing market.

*For a footnoted copy of this report, download the PDF below.


Brief

Mapping Marriage in America: Where Young Adults Marry Most

August 2026 | by Ken Burchfiel, Wendy Wang, Brad Wilcox

August 2026

by Ken Burchfiel, Wendy Wang, Brad Wilcox

A new set of maps, available at GoGetMarried.org, to help young adults determine which areas of the country are particularly promising for finding a spouse.

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Introduction

There is no shortage of lists ranking the top U.S. regions for young adults. For instance, US News ranks metropolitan areas based on employment opportunities, affordability, and “desirability.” The top-scoring area within Travel + Leisure’s list is praised for its entertainment and transportation options as well as its residents’ fitness. Yet another list, compiled by Commercial Cafe, includes school enrollment and access to parks within its ranking criteria.

All of these features are indeed relevant when considering where to live. However, they overlook a major factor of interest: Where are young adults actually getting married? Given the many benefits of marriage, a city where more young people are tying the knot might ultimately provide a more fulfilling life than one with just excellent entertainment and tasty food—but few weddings.

To that end, we put together a new set of maps, available at GoGetMarried.org, to help young adults determine which areas of the country are particularly promising for finding a spouse. These maps present marriage rates for both sexes and three different age groups.

In our analyses, we found a connection between marriage rates and both income and employment, at least for certain age groups; therefore, our maps also allow viewers to explore these additional metrics. In addition, given the importance of religion and ideology in many individuals' search for a spouse, we included maps that visualize both religious adherence and recent presidential election results.

Most of our analyses are based on IPUMS American Community Survey (ACS) microdata for the 2020-2024 time period. For reasons described in the methodology section (see Appendix), we generally chose to explore outcomes at the Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA); however, our marriage-rate calculations, along with our analyses of the correlations between various metrics and marriage rates, are based on groups of PUMAs that include at least 500,000 individuals each. Our county-level data on religious adherence and the 2024 presidential election results are derived from separate data sources.

Key Findings

  1. The regions with the highest marriage rates for adults ages 22-29 are mostly located away from major coastal cities like New York or Los Angeles. Instead, they tend to lie within interior states like Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, and Kentucky. 
     
  2. In contrast, some of the highest marriage rates for adults in their thirties are found in or near San Jose, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and other major urban areas.
     
  3. Another strong predictor of marriage rates for young-adult women is the ratio of full-time employed single men to single women.
     
  4. The ratio of higher-earning men to single women has a strong, positive correlation with marriage rates among women in their thirties, but not women ages 22-29.

Where Are Marriage Rates the Highest?

The top 10 regions with the highest marriage rates2 for adults ages 22-39 are shown in the following table. The Provo, Utah, region is the highest-ranking area on this list with a marriage rate of 13.2%. Five other top-10 regions are located in a band between Panama City, Florida, and Fort Wayne, Indiana. The northern Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs are also well represented here.

Ten regions3 with the highest marriage rates among adults ages 22-39

Marriage rates for this age group are also relatively high within the suburbs of Pittsburgh, Nashville, Austin, and Denver. (It is possible that many of these recently-married individuals first met within urban areas, then moved to the suburbs after they got married. Therefore, the cities that these suburbs surround might also be promising locations for finding a spouse.) 

Ten regions with the lowest marriage rates among adults ages 22-39

Marriage rates for this age group also tend to be lower within the Mississippi Delta, New Mexico, and southwestern Georgia.

Different trends emerge when we evaluate younger and older groups separately. For instance, the interior US tends to have higher marriage rates among adults ages 22-29 than do coastal cities.

The top 10 areas for marriage rates among this younger age group are shown below. The Provo, Utah, region remains the highest-ranking area; in addition, four of the regions between Panama City and Fort Wayne in the previous table are present here as well. This list also includes parts of Nebraska, Idaho, and Kansas.

Ten regions with the highest marriage rates among adults ages 22-29

As shown in the table below, eight of the 10 regions with the lowest marriage rates among adults ages 22-29 are located in the Los Angeles and New York metropolitan areas. Although other parts of these metro areas have higher marriage rates for this age group, this finding suggests that those who desire to get married at a younger age might want to think carefully before moving to these regions.

Ten regions with the lowest marriage rates among adults ages 22-29

When we instead examine adults ages 30-39, we see notably different trends. The 10 regions with the highest marriage rates among adults in this age group, unlike those in the top 10 for adults ages 22-29, tend to be located near major cities; examples include San Jose, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago. The fact that portions of the NYC, Chicago, and San Francisco metropolitan areas have lower marriage rates among the 22-29 age group suggests that many individuals in these cities prefer to wait until later to marry, perhaps as a result of cultural factors, or their high cost of living.

Only one region appears within both this top-10 list and the list for adults ages 22-29: the Fort Wayne/Southern Suburbs region of Indiana. While it is not at the very top of either list, its presence within both tables is still notable.

Ten regions with the highest marriage rates among adults ages 30-39

Although Colorado is not represented within this top-10 list, it is also a notable hotspot for marriage among thirty-somethings. The Austin, Nashville, Pittsburgh, and Boston areas also have high marriage rates among adults in this age group.

Many of the 10 regions with the lowest marriage rates for this age group, in contrast, tend to be located away from major cities. They include portions of the Southwestern U.S., the Mississippi Delta, western South Carolina, and western Pennsylvania. Parts of the DC, Chicago, and Phoenix metropolitan areas are present within this list as well.

Ten regions with the lowest marriage rates among adults ages 30-39

These findings demonstrate that, for young adults, the ‘best place’ to get married may depend largely on when they hope to marry. Those who are committed to marrying in their twenties may want to think carefully about moving to a major coastal city; meanwhile, those same cities could be an excellent option—though not the only choice—for marriage-minded adults in their thirties.

Which Metrics Correlate With Getting Married?

Marriage rates are the key focus of our Get Married Maps. However, few people will move to a region based on marriage odds alone. Therefore, we also explored additional variables of interest that are correlated with marriage rates.4

As shown in the following figure, a substantial positive correlation exists between marriage rates for each young-adult-female age group and the percentage of women in that age group who are married. Thus, while one might think that areas where more individuals are single are better places to find a spouse, the opposite is actually true. 

However, areas with more single men relative to single women do indeed show higher female marriage rates. In addition, the ratio of single, full-time-employed men to all single women is an even better predictor of getting married.

Figure 1. Correlations between demographic variables and percentage of never-married women who got married in the past year, by age

Given our findings for women, it is not surprising that we observe a strong positive relationship between the percentage of men who are married and male marriage rates. In addition, there is a notable connection between men’s marriage rates and the ratio of single, full-time-employed men to single women. 

Interestingly, though, regions in which a higher share of single men have a bachelor’s degree or earn at least $60,000 have higher marriage rates for men in their thirties—but not for men ages 22-29. (This does not mean, however, that a college education or higher income is a hindrance to marriage for younger men; this will be discussed in further detail later in this brief.)

Figure 2. Correlations between demographic variables and percentage of never-married men who got married in the past year, by age

Availability of employed single men helps predict marriage rates

Among women ages 22-39, the ratio of single, full-time-employed men to all single women has a strong connection with marriage rates.5 (See the following interactive scatter plot for a visualization of this relationship by grouped PUMA.) This ratio is also predictive, to a lesser extent, of marriage rates for men.

Figure 3. Marriage rates for women by ratio of single, full-time employed men per 100 single women (among adults ages 22-39)

Many of the regions with the highest score for this metric are located in areas with a large military presence, including, Minot, ND; Fayetteville and Jacksonville, NC; Oceanside/Camp Pendleton, CA; El Paso Teller (near Colorado Springs, CO); and the Peninsula Region/JBLM (WA). However, Mountain View and Sunnyvale, CA also have notably high ratios of single, full-time employed men to single women, likely due, in part, to the large presence of major tech companies in that area.

Ten regions with the highest ratio of single, full-time-employed men per 100 single women

Parts of Northern Virginia also have relatively high ratios for this category, as do the Upper Midwest and Mountain West. Portions of Seattle and San Francisco perform strongly on this metric as well.

The 10 areas with the lowest ratios, in contrast, are mostly found within Midwestern cities, the Bronx, and the South. The Fresno and Baltimore metropolitan areas each appear within this bottom-10 list as well.

Ten regions with the lowest ratio of single, full-time-employed men per 100 single women

Outside these top-10 areas, we also see lower ratios in much of Mississippi and Alabama, portions of the NYC area, and southern Virginia.

Women’s marriage rates and the availability of higher-earning single men

In the Good Jobs, Strong Families report by Grant Martsolf and Brad Wilcox, a ‘good wage’ was defined as an income greater than $60,000. Therefore, this salary serves as a good benchmark for our own income analyses. It is, however, a relatively high bar for singles within our age range. Using American Community Survey 5-year microdata from IPUMS, we found that only 32% of single men ages 30-39, and 19% of single men ages 22-29, have personal incomes of $60,000 or more. (The values for single women were slightly lower: 27% of those ages 30-39, and 15% of those ages 22-29, earned at least this much.)

As part of our income analyses, we explored how women's marriage rates are correlated with the ratio of single men earning $60,000 or more to all single women. Interestingly, this relationship varied markedly by age group.

Among young adults in their thirties, the ratio of single men who earn at least $60,000 to all single women (regardless of income) has a strong positive correlation with the percentage of women who got married in the past year. 

Figure 4. Marriage rates for women by ratio of single men earning at least $60,000 per 100 single women (among adults ages 30-39)

Seven of the top 10 regions for this ratio are located in Seattle, San Jose, and San Francisco—all major tech hubs with plenty of highly-paid employees. The remaining three are located in either the New York or Washington, DC, metropolitan areas. 

Ten regions with the highest ratio of single men earning at least $60,000 per 100 single women

On a national scale, we also see particularly high values within the Washington-Boston corridor, as well as Austin, Minneapolis, and much of the state of Colorado. Thus, tech hubs are not the only regions with high ratios of higher-earning single men to single women.

Meanwhile, the 10 regions with the lowest ratios tend to be located in more rural areas of the Southeast and Appalachia. Similarly, outside of major metropolitan areas like Atlanta and Raleigh, the Southeastern U.S. tends to have relatively low ratios for this metric.

Ten regions with the lowest ratio of single men earning at least $60,000 per 100 single women

However, when we instead analyze this relationship for the 22-29 age category, we find essentially no association at all between the two variables. In other words, the relative availability of higher-earning men has a strong connection to marriage rates for women in their thirties, but not for this younger group. 

Figure 5. Marriage rates for women by ratio of single men earning at least $60,000 per 100 single women (among adults ages 22-29)

A similar pattern is found for the percentage of single men who earn $60,000 or more: this variable has a positive correlation with marriage rates for women in their thirties, but not for women ages 22-29.

What could explain this difference? One possibility is that women who marry younger men might see future earning potential in them that has not yet materialized. (For instance, our income calculations did not exclude students; men in law or medical school may earn little or no money in their early twenties but higher salaries later on.) 

Alternatively, it is possible that, for those who marry in their twenties, financial concerns are not as important as they are for those who wait until their thirties to marry. Finally, areas with higher rates of marriage among younger women may have lower costs of living; in this case, lower salaries might be less of an issue.

For men, regional relationship between education and marriage is also age dependent

Similarly, the connection between education and marriage differs significantly among younger and older single men. At a regional level, the percentage of single men in their thirties with a bachelor’s degree has a notable positive correlation with the percentage of men in that same age group who got married in the past year.

Figure 6. Marriage rates for men by percentage of single men who have a bachelor’s degree (among men ages 30-39)

Figure 6. Marriage rates for men by percentage of single men who have a bachelor’s degree (among men ages 30-39)

However, among single men ages 22-29, the percentage of men with BAs has a much smaller, and negative, correlation with marriage rates. This may be because men with a bachelor's degree are more likely to live in large cities than those without one. (As discussed earlier, urban regions have higher marriage rates among adults in their thirties, but lower rates among adults in their twenties).

Figure 7. Marriage rates for men by percentage of single men who have a bachelor’s degree (among men ages 22-29)

It’s worth clarifying, however, that within each age group, marriage rates for men who have a bachelor’s degree are indeed higher than those for men who don’t. (The same is true for women, as the following figure shows.) Even so, for both sexes, the gaps in marriage rates by education level are narrower for those in their twenties.

Figure 8. Percentage of never-married young adults, by age group, sex, and college education, who got married in the past year

Regional relationship between higher incomes and marriage differs by age for men 

We also see diverging patterns for the relationship between young men’s incomes and their marriage rates. As shown below, regions in which higher shares of single men in their thirties earn at least $60,000 also have higher male marriage rates for that age group.

Figure 9. Marriage rates for men by percentage of single men who earn at least $60,000 (among men ages 30-39)

Figure 9. Marriage rates for men by percentage of single men who earn at least $60,000 (among men ages 30-39)

However, the opposite is true for younger men: regions where higher shares of men ages 22-29 earn $60,000 or more have lower marriage rates. The nature of urban areas could help explain this relationship, as cities tend to have both a greater share of higher-paying jobs and lower rates of marriage among adults in their twenties.

Figure 10. Marriage rates for men by percentage of single men who earn at least $60,000 (among men ages 22-29)

This does not mean, however, that higher-earning men in their twenties are less likely to marry. In fact, men ages 22-29 who earn at least $60,000 are around twice as likely to get married in a given year as those who do not. (Higher-earning women are also more likely to marry, as recent IFS research demonstrated.)

Figure 11. Percentage of never-married young adults, by age, sex, and total personal income, who got married in the past year

The implication of these findings for men in their twenties is that while higher incomes and marriage are certainly linked, moving to a region with lots of higher-earning young men will not necessarily result in better odds of marriage.

Religion, Ideology, and Marriage Rates

The relationship between our regional estimates6 of Trump’s performance relative to Harris in 2024 and marriage rates is also age dependent. These two variables have a positive and relatively strong correlation for men and women ages 22-29; however, for thirty-something adults of each sex, this relationship is much weaker and negatively correlated. One possible explanation is that more rural parts of the country, where Trump generally performed better than Harris, often have higher marriage rates for adults in their twenties.

Meanwhile, we initially expected to see a positive regional correlation between religious affiliation and the percentage of young adults who got married in the past year. After all, as General Social Survey7 data shows, religious individuals in their twenties and thirties are significantly more likely than their nominal and secular counterparts to be married.

Figure 12. Percentage of young adults, by age range and religiosity, who are married

Surprisingly, however, we find essentially no regional relationship between religious-adherent shares and the percentage of young adults who got married in the past year. Certain parts of the country (e.g., areas of Utah) do indeed have both high rates of religious affiliation and high marriage rates. However, there are also plenty of regions (such as those in the Southeast) with higher religious affiliation but lower young-adult marriage rates. Similarly, parts of the Northwest and Mountain West have both higher marriage rates and lower religious affiliation. Thus, on a national scale, we find essentially no connection between these two variables. (Similarly, we did not find a relationship between religious adherence and the percentage of young adults who are married.)

Figure 13. Marriage rates among adults ages 22-39 by religious adherence

There are several possible explanations for this finding. First, our religious-adherent data does not differentiate by age; it is possible that, if we looked only at the percentage of young adults who belong to a religious congregation, we might have found more significant results for this metric. Second, our grouped-PUMA religious-adherent percentages are weighted averages of county-level data rather than actual grouped-PUMA-level values. If we had access to actual PUMA-level religious-adherent data, we might find a stronger connection between religiosity and marriage.

Conclusion

Determining where to move after high school or college is no easy task. Many of the most important factors involved—such as proximity to family, where one receives his or her first job offer, and the desire to explore a new part of the country—cannot be displayed within a mapping project like this one. In addition, we acknowledge the important role that employment rates, job opportunities, cost of living, and cultural factors all play in deciding where to relocate.

However, we encourage those who wish to get married in the future to pay attention to our marriage-rate findings. If one appealing area has twice the marriage rate as another, it may indeed be the better option for a marriage-minded young adult. Similarly, young adults hoping to marry in their twenties might want to avoid moving to a coastal metropolitan area where such a decision is less common. While marriage rates are not the only factor to consider, they are certainly just as important, if not more important, than many of the other criteria often used for popular city rankings. We hope that these maps will bring more attention to this underappreciated metric.

It’s very possible that the marriage rates shown within this map will change in coming years. This decade’s top regions for getting married may end up underperforming other areas in the future. For that reason, we plan to continue updating these maps as new demographic data becomes available. That way, the maps can continue to inform relocation decisions for individuals who wish to not only find a job and a friend group in a new city, but a spouse as well.

Editor's Note: For the Appendix, download the full report below.


Endnotes

  1. Citation for IPUMS USA Data: Steven Ruggles, Sarah Flood, Matthew Sobek, Daniel Backman, Grace Cooper, Julia A. Rivera Drew, Stephanie Richards, Renae Rodgers, Jonathan Schroeder, and Kari C.W. Williams. IPUMS USA: Version 16.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2025. 
  2. One limitation of our data is that we do not know exactly where adults were living at the time that they got married. Instead, our analyses are based on (1) where adults are currently living, and (2) whether or not those adults got married in the past year. This means that, if a couple got married in a city but then immediately moved out to a suburban town, that marriage would increase the suburb's marriage rate within our maps rather than the city's. Similarly, many couples—particularly those in longer relationships—may have met each other in one region but gotten married in another.
    Our decision to examine who got married in the previous year, rather than the last 3 years, 5 years, etc., should help reduce the percentage of respondents who moved between getting married and taking the American Community Survey. Nonetheless, due to this factor (along with sampling error), these maps are an approximation, rather than a perfect image, of each region’s actual marriage rates.
    In an attempt to mitigate this issue, we did explore alternative approaches to calculating these marriage rates. One option would have been to exclude respondents whose migration PUMA changed over the past year from our marriage-rate analyses. However, this would not only reduce our sample size (and thus widen our confidence intervals), but also exclude any respondents who changed PUMAs in order to move closer to the individual they were about to marry.
    The San Jose Area grouped PUMA provides one possible example of individuals moving for marriage: 14.2% of never-married women ages 30-39 in San Jose got married in the past year; however, when we exclude women who changed migration PUMAs during that time, this value drops to 10.9%. One plausible explanation for this difference is that the former percentage includes a number of women who moved to San Jose to live with their new husbands who work in the technology sector there. (The corresponding values for men ages 30-39 were much closer: 10.6% and 9.9%, respectively. This suggests that couples aren’t simply choosing to move to San Jose as a post-marriage destination.)
    Therefore, we ultimately chose not to exclude recent movers, as doing so could exclude individuals who moved to get married—and would thus undermine the main purpose of our maps, which is to show the best places to move in order to find a spouse.
    In addition, we could have only included individuals in our calculations who did not move in the past year or whose past migration PUMA mapped only to a single PUMA. We could then have based marriage-rate calculations on the PUMA in which these individuals lived during the previous year. However, since many individuals change their residences at the time they get married, this approach would exclude a significant portion of respondents from our dataset.
    Finally, we could have simply calculated marriage rates by respondents’ migration PUMA during the previous year, as this PUMA can be determined for all ACS respondents. However, this would have resulted in a loss of detail within highly-populated counties (such as Los Angeles County), as migration PUMAs, unlike regular PUMAs, cannot include only a portion of a given county.
    To determine the effect of these alternative approaches on our overall findings, we compared them, via correlation analyses, for each of the nine age/sex groups featured in our maps (women ages 22-29, both sexes ages 22-39, etc.). We found that the grouped-PUMA-level correlations between our standard marriage rates and those based on individuals’ previous locations ranged from 0.862 (for men ages 22-39) to 0.930 (for adults ages 30-39). The correlations between our standard rates and those that filtered out recent movers were even higher, ranging from 0.957 (for men ages 22-39) to 0.969 (for adults ages 30-39). Finally, marriage-rate analyses based on respondents’ migration PUMA during the previous year also correlated strongly with those based on respondents’ current migration PUMAs; the exact coefficients ranged from 0.851 (for men ages 22-29) to 0.930 (for adults ages 30-39).
    Given the high correlations we observed between these various methods, we can conclude that the alternative approaches would not have had a major effect on our overall findings. 
  3. The names of grouped PUMAs within these tables have been condensed in order to make them more intuitive. As a result, they do not match their corresponding grouped-PUMA names within the corresponding tables of the Get Married Maps site.
  4. These analyses were based on linear regressions of grouped-PUMA data, as marriage-rate data at the individual-PUMA level contains a large amount of statistical noise.
  5. Male and female marriage rates for the age groups we evaluated will usually differ within each grouped PUMA. This can occur for several different reasons. First, different grouped PUMAs will have different numbers of never-married single men and women (the denominator for our marriage-rate calculations), which will cause marriage rates to differ for those areas. Second, if an individual outside the age range we used for our analysis, such as a man in his forties, marries someone within our age range, such as a woman in her thirties, this marriage will only contribute towards the listed marriage rates or one sex. The average grouped-PUMA-level marriage rate for women ages 22-39 was 6.6, a decent amount higher than the average for men (5.5).
  6. Because our election-result data, as well as our religious-adherent data, was originally provided at the county level, we needed to convert it into estimated PUMA-level data (using an approach explained in the methodology section) before we could incorporate it into a correlation analysis at the grouped-PUMA level. This approach has some significant limitations, particularly for PUMAs that only make up part of a highly-populated county. Thus, these results should be interpreted with caution.
  7. Citation for General Social Survey data: Davern, Michael; Bautista, Rene; Freese, Jeremy; Herd, Pamela; and Morgan, Stephen L.; General Social Survey 1972-2024. [Machine-readable data file]. Principal Investigator, Michael Davern; Co-Principal Investigators, Rene Bautista, Jeremy Freese, Pamela Herd, and Stephen L. Morgan. Sponsored by National Science Foundation. NORC ed. Chicago: NORC, 2025: NORC at the University of Chicago [producer and distributor]. Data accessed from the GSS Data Explorer website at gssdataexplorer.norc.org.
  8. These percentages were created by dividing the total number of members of congregations in a given region by that region's population. This means that, if many congregants travel to a given congregation from nearby regions, the listed percentage may actually exceed 100%. This occurs in around 30 counties and county equivalents.
  9. Citation for the 2020 US Religion Census: Clifford Grammich, Erica Dollhopf, Mary Gautier, Richard Houseal, Dale E. Jones, Alexei Krindatch, Richie Stanley, and Scott Thumma. 2023. 2020 U.S. Religion Census: Religious Congregations & Membership Study. Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies.
  10. Citation for MIT Election Lab data: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2018, "County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2024," at Harvard Dataverse, V20.

 


Report

America's Demoralized Men, Part II: Lost Pathways, Greater Struggles

August 2026 | by Joseph E. Davis, Michael Toscano, Ken Burchfiel

August 2026

by Joseph E. Davis, Michael Toscano, Ken Burchfiel

The second installment of our two-part report, America’s Demoralized Men, based on a YouGov survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,000 young men, ages 18-29.

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Introduction and Executive Summary

In March 2026, the Institute for Family Studies released America’s Demoralized Men, Part I: Worthy Aspirations, Trying Circumstances, the first installment of a two-part report, based on a YouGov survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,000 young men, ages 18-29. Our aim, within the limits of the survey, was to allow young men to express themselves on a range of personal issues, for which there has been considerable and often harsh public commentary. 

In Part I, we began our exploration by considering what young men say about becoming an adult—both in terms of what it means to them and whether they feel they have reached that life stage. We found that while they see adulthood as a matter of personal responsibility, self-direction, and financial independence, accessing their own adult status is connected to the older metrics, like marriage, parenthood, and finishing school. By these criteria, many do not feel they have reached full adulthood. However, when we asked about work, manhood, marriage, and parenthood, the great majority express a strong desire to be responsible men, to make a living sufficient to support themselves and others, to date, to marry, and to become fathers. 

Reaching these worthy goals, however, is another matter. Young men identified a number of specific obstacles, from inadequate incomes to limits on educational opportunity, to personal struggles to finding a suitable romantic partner. They are not where they want to be in life, and the mismatch between their aspirations and where they stand is a source of frustration and stress.

In this second installment, we continue our analysis by first taking a close look at the social lives of young men, including questions about social integration and support, friendship and participation in organized groups, and family relations, especially with parents. Next, we consider feelings of alienation and frustration, perspectives on the American Dream and how their future will take shape, and reports of mental health problems and potentially traumatic experiences. Lastly, we survey online activities, such as pornography, gaming, and gambling, and some of the trouble correlated with these. 

“Demoralized” is the term we use to characterize a state of mind reflected in agreement with such self-appraisals as “I am inclined to think that I am a failure” (43%), and such expressions of powerlessness as “I often feel that I have little control over the things that happen to me” (61%), and of being found insufficient, such as “I never seem to do enough to please people” (54%). We also report here on the dispiriting experience of feeling lonely (25%), isolated (26%) or lacking community (48%) much of the time. As we noted in Part I, some young men “are not in crisis but thriving.” But some are struggling mightily, as we can see in the major findings reported here.

Major Findings

For Part II, here are some of the most important things we have learned.

  • Slightly less than half of young men feel a steady emotional connection to others. Close to half of the young men say they never or not too often feel lonely (45%), isolated (47%), or unloved or unwanted (48%). The other half, however, report feeling lonely (55%) or isolated (54%) at least some of the time; and when the young men were asked if they feel loved or wanted by others, 1 in 3 (32%) say only some of the time, and 1 in 5 (20%) say seldom or never.
     
  • For many young men friendships are in short supply. In fact, 4 out of 10 young men have two or fewer close friends, which includes 1 in 3 (34%) with one to two close friends and almost 1 in 10 (9%) who report zero close friends. The best predictor of having three or more friends is connection to institutions like marriage, church, and school. Young men who participated in all-male groups, such as sports teams or the Boy Scouts, during the school years are also more likely to report three or more friends (64%) than those who did not (48%).
     
  • Social, civic, and religious participation is low. While 57% participate in at least one community activity, a mere 31% report working as a volunteer, and even fewer are members of a faith-based group (29%), social club (27%), adult sports league (24%), or other type of civic organization. In terms of overall participation, being involved with at least one activity is most strongly associated with being religious (81%), being a student (73%), being married with kids (72%), and having finished trade school (74%). Overall, 25% attend religious services at least monthly; 28% say they have become more religious in recent years.
     
  • The American dream feels out of reach for many young men. About half of young men agree with the statement, “No matter how hard I work, people like me will never achieve the American Dream.” Similarly, 72% agree that “Who you know is more important than ability or hard work in getting ahead.” For a significant share of young men, the meritocratic story is a myth. Still, they are not giving up on themselves: a remarkable 84% say that having ambitious plans for the future describes them at least somewhat well.
     
  • A notable share of young men report having faced traumatic events in their lives. For example, 12% have ever been incarcerated, while 44% have a loved one who has gone to prison (28%), died of a drug overdose (18%), died by suicide (16%), or died by homicide (14%). The men with such experiences have higher rates of mental health struggles than those who do not, including with depression (49% vs. 27%), an anxiety disorder (44% vs. 25%), ADHD (36% vs. 19%), bipolar disorder (26% vs. 8%), and a learning disability (21% vs. 11%).
     
  • Electronic media use is very high. Gambling is rampant: 23% of young men gamble daily, an additional 12% do so several times a week, and another 21% gamble weekly or less. Gaming is also very common, with 44% playing video games many times a day or more, and another 42% doing so at least a few times a week. Pornography use is also extremely widespread: 42% watch porn daily (27%) or several times a week (16%), with another 26% viewing it weekly or less. Those who watch porn daily include married men (21%) and regular religious service attenders (24%).
     
  • Online gambling and pornography have significant emotional repercussions. Around 2 in 3 regular online gamblers say it has caused them at least some distress. Of those who watch pornography many times a day or more, 43% experience loneliness, 36% feel depressed, and 29% are anxious. Feeling like a failure is also closely tied to these activities. For example, 66% of daily gamblers and 63% of daily pornography watchers, compared to 42% of men as a whole, report feeling like a failure.

About This Report

In Part I, we presented three of five chapters (available here):

Chapter 1: Coming of Age

Chapter 2: What Young Men Want: Work and Education

Chapter 3: What Young Men Want: Marriage and Manhood

In Part II, we present the final two chapters as well as an interpretive conclusion, respectively titled:

Chapter 4: Social Connection

Chapter 5: Alienation and Distress 

Conclusion: What Did We Learn

After the release of Part I, we were grateful to receive many notes from readers who appreciated the report’s approach and tone. We strove to allow men to speak for themselves and their aspirations, and what came through was challenging but nonetheless hopeful. Men have worthy aspirations, and that was a cause for optimism. At the same time, they were struggling to achieve them, and that was a reason for concern and even sadness. 

In this second installment, we present our findings in this same spirit. We tell a sobering tale—not applicable to every young man, to be sure, but to a significant number. In the discussion that follows, we again try to provide some context for the predicament that many young men find themselves caught in today, and we conclude with some reflections on what we have learned. 

Data and Methods. The Institute for Family Studies Gen-Z survey on men was conducted by YouGov between April 7 and 15, 2025, with a representative sample of 2,000 men, ages 18 to 29, living in the United States.

The respondents were matched to a sampling frame based on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is an 18–29-year-old subset of a politically representative “modeled frame” of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted using propensity scores derived from age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and region, grouped into deciles and post-stratified. The characteristics of the final weighted sample mirror those of the general U.S. population of men ages 18 to 29. Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) adults are included but are not analyzed separately. All estimates have been weighed to reflect the actual population.

 

Chapter 4: Social Connection

In recent years, a “male loneliness epidemic” and a male “friendship recession” have been reported and widely discussed. Both crises are apparently about the same problem, as both are premised on the same survey results. A May 2021 American Perspectives Survey, conducted by the Survey Center on American Life, provided some grim statistics on the decline of friendships among men. They found that (1) the percentage with at least six close friends fell by half since 1990, from 55% to 27%; and (2) the percentage without any close friends jumped from 3% to 15%. They also noted that “young men are faring worse than most. These two key findings were picked up and repeated everywhere, even inspiring an SNL sketch and Friendship, a Tim Robinson film.

A 2024 survey by the same center found that the two key measures had grown worse, down to 26% with six or more friends and up to 17%, without any close friends. This finding was also picked up and passed along in the press. However, as noted by the report co-author, Sam Pressler, this decline in friendship among men was not that different from similar trends across American life:

17 percent of all Americans had no close friends—two percentage points higher than the friendship stat that has been used as the basis for the ‘male loneliness crisis.’ In fact, men and women look practically the same in this dataset, with 17 percent of men and 16 percent of women reporting that they ‘do not have a close friend.’

In other words, young men, as a group, are not necessarily the social outlier that they are made out to be. While our survey does not allow comparisons to women or other age groups, we should not automatically assume that young men’s experience is unique. There are also, as we stressed in Part I, significant differences between distinct subgroups of young men. Throughout the report, we pay close attention to their specific circumstances. 

A related point that we will see in this chapter and the next is that while we talk in comparative terms—e.g., which groups of men are more likely than others to feel isolated—we must not lose sight of the absolute percentages. For example, in our survey, a much higher percentage of married men (67%) than unmarried men (41%) report never, or not too often, feeling lonely in the past month. But if we just focus on the married men alone, apart from any comparisons, we find that 14% say they have felt lonely all or most of the time. That represents 1 in 7 young married men, which is a substantial and disconcerting number.

Further, in the wider discourse, feelings of belonging and friendships, along with social support and participation in associations, are often treated as though they are interchangeable. They are certainly related, but they are not identical. For example, tools to measure loneliness, such as the UCLA Loneliness Scale, generally include aspects like feeling alone, left out, and isolated from others. These measures show that loneliness is a complex experience and not reduceable to a mere lack of social contact. The subjective experience of social isolation, such as feelings of loneliness or lack of community, is distinct from what we might call more objective measures of social integration, such as the number of friends or group memberships. We asked young men about each separately and will address them one at a time in this chapter.

Feeling Connected

To access respondents’ feelings of connection, we asked three direct questions: during the last 30 days, how often have you felt 1) “lonely” or 2) “isolated” or 3) “loved or wanted by others.” The answer categories ranged from “never/not too often” at one end of the spectrum, to “most/all of the time” at the other, with “some of the time” as a middle response. With minor variations, the responses to the questions overlapped.

First, the good news. Over the prior month, about half of all young men report being never or not too often lonely (45%) or isolated (47%) and all or most of the time feeling loved or wanted (48%). Full-time employees and self-employed respondents are more likely to report little or no loneliness in the past 30 days (51%) compared to part-time workers (38%), students or caregivers (40%), and those who don’t work at all (40%). In addition, respondents in the 24-29 age range are more likely (50%) to report low levels of loneliness than younger respondents (39%).

Figure 1. Percentage of men who say they felt loved/wanted, isolated, or lonely within the past 30 days

For many, the college years can be a lonely and isolating time. Among our respondents, those in school (including 2- and 4-year colleges, trade schools, and apprenticeship programs) are much more likely to report feeling lonely all or most of the time (28%) than non-students with a bachelor’s degree (16%). However, getting the degree appears to open doors to increased social participation, as men with a trade school or associate’s degree continue to feel lonely—most or all of the time—after graduating at the same rate (26%) as they did while in school or training. On the loved/wanted by others question, this difference is much smaller: 54% of four-year-college grads report feeling loved or wanted by others all or most of the time, but 50% of those currently in school do as well. College students have the affection and support of their parents; the challenge for them is fitting in and being accepted by peers, navigating a competitive environment, and choosing a course of study (or two, as many now double-major) in an unpredictable world. In a large spring 2025 survey of college students, 46% of undergraduate men scored positive for loneliness on the UCLA scale.

Figure 2. Percentage of men who say they felt lonely in the past 30 days, by various characteristics 

If the good news is that half of the surveyed young men do not feel lonely, the bad news is that a substantial portion of our respondents report feeling lonely (25%) or isolated (26%) all or most of the time in the past 30 days. In addition, 20% say that that they seldom or never feel loved or wanted by others during this same time period. If we include the 30% of young men who feel lonely some of the time, the 28% who sometimes feel isolated, and the 32% who only occasionally feel loved or wanted, it becomes clear we are dealing with widespread hardship. 

“Epidemic,” however, is not the right word because this dire situation did not arise suddenly. According to a meta-analysis of hundreds of studies using the UCLA Loneliness Scale with young adults (men and women) ages 18-29, conducted since the mid-1970s, the sheer number of lonely people has been growing in a linear fashion for half a century. It has now swollen to a shamefully high figure.

The extent of loneliness, isolation, and feeling unloved or unwanted, the pattern among respondents, and the long-term trends reflect the process we noted in Part I in our discussion of the transition to adulthood. The loss of institutionalized pathways and defined roles, and the simultaneous shift of responsibility to individuals to create their own career and life trajectories have introduced a great deal of precariousness into the lives of young men and left them bereft of guidance and structure. Those furthest from institutions that provide direction, and cultivate and demand stable habits and commitments are those who feel most lonely, isolated, and unwanted. While that is part of the story, it is not the whole. As the previous figure shows, many married, religious, and full-time-employed men still feel lonely at least some of the time. The thinning of social life and the demands of autonomy are affecting everyone.

Friendship

Friendship is a crucial form of social connection. We asked respondents how many close friends they had, and offered number categories like 0, 1-2, 3-5, and so on. We offered no definition of “close friend.” The answers are based on their own interpretation and assessment of how many of the people who they know qualify. We did not ask how they know their friends, so we might imagine they include spouses and partners, high school and college buddies, work associates, roommates, and so on. Online relationships may also be important: when we asked respondents who play video games at least several times a week about their reasons for gaming, 42% checked the box for “an opportunity to interact with others or make friends.” Although parents often express a desire to be “best friends” with their children when grown (72% of parents in a 2012 survey), we suspect not many young men counted their parents. However, they may well have counted siblings or other relatives.

Figure 3. Percentage of men reporting number of friends by various characteristics

About 90% of young men report having at least one close friend, with the majority having three or more (58%). Conversely, 9% (about 1 in 10) say they have no close friends. That is half of the 17% without a close friend that we quoted earlier, citing a 2024 survey with the same population (young men ages 18-29). Although many factors can account for survey differences, some of the discrepancy might be explained by the fact that the other survey, unlike ours, specifically instructed respondents not to count their relatives. In addition to the young men with no friends, another 1 in 2 in our survey report having just one or two.

Among the expected demographic variables (marriage, parenthood, etc.), we see a notable relationship between going to college and making friends. For example, 52% of men without a bachelor’s degree have three or more friends, whereas 69% of those with this degree have that many, as do 65% of those currently in school for a BA.

Another factor that contributes to more friendships is participation in all-male groups, such as a boys’ sports team, during the school years. We asked young men if they had participated in any such groups during their childhood or adolescence. If a respondent said “yes,” his chance of having three or more friends (64%) was some 16 percentage points higher than those who said no (48%), and his chance of having no friends was about 9 percentage points lower (5% vs. 14%)  

While friendship is certainly a protective factor against loneliness, it is striking that the 25% of young men who say they feel lonely most or all of the time is much higher than the 9% who report no friends. In the following figure, we see that there is a clear relationship between friend counts and loneliness: 43% of those with no friends feel lonely all or most of the time. However, so do 29% of those with just one or two friends, and 21% of those with three to five. Similarly, 28% of those with one to two close friends reported feeling isolated, as did 21% of those with three to five friends, and 20% of those with six or more. Friendships help but do not guarantee feeling included.


Figure 4. Percentage of men who report feeling lonely, by number of close friends

For many young men, there is clearly a substantial friendship deficit, symptomatic of a wider decline in social participation (see below). Specifically, 42% of the young men in our survey reported two or fewer close friends. This includes 31% of husbands, 36% of fathers, around 40% of both liberal and conservative respondents, 31% of college graduates, and 32% of religious respondents. No demographic group is immune to the lack of friendships. 

Social Support

For another measure of personal support beyond friendship, we asked respondents how often they had someone available who could provide them with care, assistance, and companionship. The list of possibilities (see the statements in the figure below) include things like having someone to provide advice about a personal issue, or someone who will listen to them when there is something they have to say. Despite the extent of loneliness and the relatively small number of friends that young men have, about two-thirds report having someone in their life most or all of the time who can listen to them (64%), provide advice (62%), and with whom they enjoy spending time (67%) and engaging in fun activities (63%). Just 5 to 8% of the young men report not having such support at all. Still, for 25 to 30%, this support is only available “some” of the time. 

Figure 5. Percentage of men who report having someone available in various capacities

Who is providing this support? Since the responses to all four questions are so similar, it seems likely that respondents who give the answer all or most of the time are thinking of just one or two persons with a stable presence in their life. As the following figure indicates, married men tend to enjoy more social support than their unmarried counterparts. Along with close friends, spouses (who may or may not be thought of as close friends) play a very important support role. 

Figure 6. Percentage of men who report having someone available in various capacities, by marital and parental status

Most parents today are heavily involved in the lives of their young adult children (a process that also began to grow in the 1970s). We already noted the desire of many parents to be best friends with their children, and in a 2023 Pew Center survey, majorities of parents say they text (73%) or talk on the phone (54%) with a young adult child (ages 18-34, men and women) at least a few times a week. They offer advice, help financially (59%), and say their young adult kids rely on them a great deal or a fair amount for emotional support (41%; more mothers than fathers, and more for daughters than sons). Young people confirm these assessments, with those ages 18-24 most likely to turn to their parents for help and advice. For young men, parents may fill a support gap in the absence of friends and wider community engagement. Our data suggest, however, that despite parental involvement, this absence may still leave them feeling disconnected. 

Social, Civic, and Religious Participation

Much has been written about the waning of civic engagement, religious participation, volunteering, and other forms of associational life among young people. The attenuation of community, as influentially demonstrated by Robert Putnam’s Bowling Alone, is certainly not new or confined to youth. The associational decline has proceeded since the late 1960s with each generation less engaged in public life than the last. The membership in what Alexis de Tocqueville called “mediating institutions”—voluntary associations from churches to service clubs, bowling leagues to hobby groups—has dramatically contracted in recent decades. Rates of formal volunteering have also declined. These trends, along with comparatively lower educational attainment and employment prospects, are part of the “disconnected young men” story.

Along with the bonds of friendship, we also queried young men about their integration into the larger community, whether they are involved through group membership, volunteering, or attendance at religious services. Before exploring these more objective measures, our first question sought to tap respondents’ perception of their assimilation into social life. To what extent, we asked, did they personally agree or disagree with the following statement: “I don’t feel I belong to anything I’d call a community.” We did not specify what sort of community or provide examples or offer direction of any kind. The question was about anything they might call a community.

As with the loneliness and isolation questions, about half of young men are entirely missing relations that provide meaningful connection. Specifically, 18% strongly agree that they have no community they can call their own, with an additional 30% agreeing somewhat. And the pattern was basically the same as we saw earlier: greater agreement from those who are most subject to the forces of formlessness—men who are unmarried, without a four-year college degree (and not pursuing one), secular, and from a household where their parents divorced. But, to emphasize once again, despite the comparative advantages, 36% of religious men, 36% of those with a bachelor’s degree, and 28% of married men with kids also somewhat or strongly agree that they lack a community. 

To assess community involvement, we also asked about volunteering, along with whether they participate in any of six types of associations. These included fraternal organizations (i.e., the Lion’s Club), social clubs (i.e., a book group), civic organizations, and faith-based groups (see the figure below for the full list). Although the question was asked in the present tense, we did not specify a time period, such as “in the past year,” or a frequency.

Figure 7. Percentage of men reporting participation in various social organizations

Close to 1 in 3 young men report volunteering, such as at a food pantry, an after-school program, or the fire department. A quarter are involved in adult sports leagues, and more than a quarter are engaged in a social club (27%) or faith-based group (29%). Fewer than 1 in 5 take part in a civic organization (18%) or an alumni/booster club (14%), and just 11% belong to a fraternal group. It may be, as social scientists have observed, that compared to earlier generations, young people are replacing more formal organizational engagement with novel, looser, and more sporadic forms of participation. For many, unstable occupational and transient living arrangements may strain the ability, even if desired, to commit to regular meetings, pay dues, and other expectations of group membership.

Surveys have shown that a college education is correlated with greater community involvement and civic participation. We also find that those with a college degree are more likely (39%) to volunteer than those who neither have, nor are pursuing, a four-year degree (27%).

However, very strong volunteer rates are also reported by men who completed trade school or an apprenticeship. As noted in Part I, Chapter 2, these men comprise 18% of our overall sample, and some (27%) also have four-year-college degrees. They (and we are excluding those who have a bachelor’s degree) are significantly more likely to volunteer (45%) than those who have not completed such a program (26%). Most commentary on young adults, unfortunately, misses these skilled men entirely, lumping them together with all those who do not hold a degree.  

Those currently in school—a substantial 30%—also have very strong volunteer rates (43%). As schools incubate social clubs and activities, this is not surprising. For some educational programs, volunteering may be a class requirement and is often recommended for resume building. But the fact that 28% of these young men also report feeling lonely and isolated all or most the time in the past month (and another 32% some of the time) also reminds us of the difficult circumstances of college. As with the number of friends, participating in social activities like volunteering does not provide as much protection as we might expect. 

Interestingly, despite the lack of free time reported by many parents, married fathers are more likely to volunteer (45%) than unmarried men without kids (25%). One possible explanation for this difference is that having children opens up (perhaps even requires) many additional volunteer opportunities, such as after-school activities and youth sports teams.

As we can see from the previous figure, overall participation in these types of group activities is low, although a majority of respondents (57%) do participate in at least one. Participation rates are higher among trade school and apprenticeship graduates; religious respondents; and married men with kids (as compared to unmarried men without kids). While full-time employees and self-employed respondents have higher participation rates than those who are not working (and neither in school nor caregivers), they have lower rates than students and caregivers.

Figure 8. Percentage of men who participate in various social organizations, by various characteristics

In his book Bowling Alone, Putnam worried about the decline of membership in religious institutions and attendance at services. Participation in these institutions, he argued, is a significant predictor of volunteering and is comparable to high educational attainment in its association with civic engagement. Fewer people going to services, he wrote, spells trouble for civil society. 

In our survey, we find that religious respondents are more likely to report involvement in at least one activity (81%) than nominal (66%) or secular (42%) respondents. Similarly, the religious are around twice as likely to report volunteering (45%) as secular respondents (22%). The problem, from the Putnam perspective, is that the secular contingent outnumbers the religious by more than two to one.

Attendance at religious services is not the same thing as participation in a faith-based group. For example, 40% of those who met our definition of “secular” (attending services less than once a year) report a religious affiliation; the other 60% report being an atheist, agnostic, or “nothing in particular.” More than 1 in 10 participate in a faith-based group. Meanwhile, only some of the “religious,” who, by definition, attend worship services a lot, report such participation. We took up religious attendance separately by asking how often these days, apart from weddings and funerals, they attend religious services.

Figure 9. Percentage of men who regularly attend religious services, by various characteristics

What is striking here is just how few young men are regular church (synagogue, mosque, etc.) goers. To simplify the eight response categories, we combined those who never attend (39%) and those who attend less than once a year (14%). This is the group we label “secular,” and it includes more than half of all young men (53%). Meanwhile, 23% of men are in our nominal category, which includes those who attend between once a year and once a month. That leaves 25% of men in our religious category, i.e., those who attend more than once a month.

As noted, the secular young men, who tend to identify as “nothing in particular” (37%) or agnostic or atheist (23%), are around half as likely as religious respondents to volunteer and be “joiners” of any sort of voluntary association. Similarly, they are less likely than religious respondents to have at least three close friends (52% vs. 68%); to be married (9% vs. 25%); to be a parent (25% vs. 35%); and to have a bachelor’s degree (14% vs. 34%). In addition, they are much more likely (57%) than religious men (36%) to feel that they do not belong to anything they would call a community. In short, this is the group of young men least connected, not only to religious but to associational life in general. 

A question much discussed in recent years is whether young men are becoming more religious. To be sure, there is evidence from recent surveys of rising attendance. We took the direct approach and queried respondents about whether, in recent years, they had become more religious, less religious, or stayed about the same. More than 1 in 4 (28%) say that they are now more religious than they were before. The biggest movement was among the “religious” group (those who attend services regularly). Wherever they started from, 52% report increased religiosity, with only 11% reporting less. About 30% of the nominal, and 15% of the secular also indicate becoming more religious. Of those currently in school, 36% say they are more religious, while among those, without a BA degree, who have completed trade school or an apprenticeship, the figure is 40 percent. Conservative respondents are twice as likely (42%) as liberal ones (21%) to report having grown more religious.

However, a similar percentage of respondents (26%) report a decline in religiosity, including among the nominal (29%) and secular (32%). Additionally, 34% of liberal respondents, compared to only 18% of conservative young men, say that they had grown less religious. Meanwhile, the plurality of all men we surveyed (46%) said that they have stayed about the same. Over half (53%) of secular respondents and about one-third (36%) of religious respondents indicate that their religious views have not changed much. 

Family Relations

In Part I of this report, we touched on the issue of fatherlessness and the question of role models and influencers. One of the central worries about young men is that, in a world where divorce and single parenthood are common, many do not have men in their life who can model manhood and provide authoritative guidance and steady support. As we noted, only 63% of young men had their biological father present on a continuing basis when they were growing up. The father was missing in 16% of the cases and was an intermittent presence in 21% more. Being motherless was also an issue, but for far fewer young men (5% missing, 11% only present part of the time). 

To those who reported no biological father present, we asked if there was a man in their life when they were growing up who they thought of as a father figure. We provided a list of possibilities, as well as an “other, please specify” option. The possibilities included an older brother, an uncle or other relative, a coach, a teacher, or a Big Brother (or similar youth mentor). Respondents could choose all that apply, or none. 

We also offered a write-in option; of the 126 written-in responses, half told us that no father figure was present. Not surprisingly, since we only asked about biological fathers, many of the other responses refer to adoptive fathers and stepfathers. A small number of young men also name a grandfather or other relative. Among our pre-selected options, the most common response was uncle or other relative (30%), and 16% checked older brother. The non-relatives included teacher (15%), coach (12%), and Big Brother or similar youth mentor (8%). For the great majority of young men (69%) who grew up without a biological father, adoptive father, or stepdad, a father figure was present in their lives.

Figure 10. Percentage of men without a biological father present who see various people as father figures 

As social science has shown, having a father in the house growing up is generally beneficial to a young man’s development and transition to adulthood, even when aspects of the relationship may be less than ideal. In considering their situation, we also wanted to ask about young men’s current relationships with their parents, if any. As we have stressed, parents can play a significant role offering advice and support to their young adult children. But, as we also find with friendships and social participation, the role they play does not necessarily protect against loneliness and isolation. There is no substitute for belongingness in a wider community. Yet, good relations with parents are always beneficial.

To that end, we asked young men to rank their relationship with their mother and father along a scale that ranged from very good, good, fair, or poor, to “I have cut off contact.” For those without a father or mother, we included a not-applicable response. 

Taking the father first, we get the following portrait: 27% say that their relationship with their father is fair or poor, or that they have cut off contact with him. An additional 24% describe the relationship as “good,” and a plurality (39%) as “very good.” (For 9% of respondents, this question was not applicable.)

Young men with a fair or worse relationship with their father are less likely to have a college degree (29% vs. 18%). Secular respondents are more likely to say this about their relationships with their fathers (34%) than religious ones (16%), as are those from families where the parents divorced (37%), compared with those in which there was no divorce (18%). Notably, only 10% of married respondents with children report a fair, poor, or severed relationship with their father; this was a sharply lower share than those who were married without kids (27%), unmarried with kids (30%), or unmarried without kids (29%). It is evident, therefore, that those with the weakest relationship to their father tend to be the same men with lower institutional embeddedness.

Relations with mothers are better overall. Here, just 3% of respondents mark N/A, and around 1 in 6 report a fair, poor, or cut-off relationship. Meanwhile, the majority (53%) describe their relationship with their mother as ‘very good,’ and an additional 27% consider it ‘good.’ As with paternal relationships, secular respondents, those from divorced families, and those who neither have nor are pursuing a college degree are more likely to report less favorable relationships with their mothers. 

Social integration is a significant challenge for many young men. They receive emotional support, especially from partners, if they have one, and from their families, but friendship networks are often small and group affiliations few. As a rich body of research has shown, dating back to Emile Durkheim’s famous book Suicide, the loss, weakness, or absence of valued attachments is distressful and robustly associated with poor mental health.[xxii] Young men struggle with loneliness and isolation, and, as we’ll turn to in the next chapter, with another source of situational distress—a sense of subordination to forces they cannot control.

Chapter 5: Alienation and Distress

One of the frequent claims made by writers on the crisis of young men, especially those young men from the white working class, is that they are “alienated.” In popular writing, the term can often mean several different things. Sometimes it means social estrangement or marginalization, sometimes a lack of meaning or purpose, and sometimes a disillusionment or apathy. The attributed causes range from fatherlessness and a scarcity of positive male role models to political polarization and the “Me Too” Movement. In this account, incels (an online group of “involuntary celibates”) are an example of alienation, the manosphere is tapping into it, and self-loathing is a consequence. Violence is also a manifestation, as is passivity, lack of aspiration, and a fatalistic attitude.

In its original meaning, alienation was a powerlessness brought about by certain objective conditions in society—workers, for example, who had lost the means of control over their own work product and could no longer see themselves in it. Now, in popular discourse, alienation often specifies a failure of individuals. Persons are held responsible to assimilate themselves to the conditions of the social world regardless of how they happen to find them. They can defy social rules and conventions, of course, and there is plenty of that. But ironically, their resistance must be of the socially approved type, the type applauded as a worthy struggle. When socially disapproved, being out of step is a sign of alienation—of being lost, not liberated. Since the social conditions are constantly changing, young people must stay adaptable and flexible, as we noted in Part I. And failing to self-assimilate in a timely fashion is a measure of the crisis engulfing young men, as we saw in the first report’s Introduction. 

In our survey, we inquired into young men’s sense of alienation by exploring their perceptions of the link between their own effort and success, their ambitions and confidence, and their sense of self-efficacy in bringing about desired outcomes. The questions we asked cannot, of course, tell us what the actual, objective situation is in our society. Rather, what they allow us to see is what young men perceive to be the objective economic situation, their sense of control with respect to this state of affairs, and their hopefulness or fatalism about the future. 

In a society that aspires to be a meritocracy, success is supposed to be determined by each person’s talent and industriousness. External barriers set by ascribed characteristics, like race or family background, are to be—as far as possible—removed. Individuals can pursue opportunity, better themselves, and enjoy social mobility through their own personal effort and ability. Though often criticized as an illusion and labeled a myth, the notion of meritocracy has long been the foundation of the American Dream and the motivational foundation for calls to apply oneself and persevere in one’s plans and projects. Widely acknowledged as never fully realized, the Dream was nonetheless a promise of a better future.

To access their judgment about the value of hard work, we asked respondents if, and to what degree, they accepted or rejected three statements. 

Statement 1: "Who you know is more important than ability or hard work in getting ahead."

Nearly three-quarters of young men either strongly (27%) or somewhat strongly (45%) endorse this anti-meritocratic belief; just 7% strongly disagree. Married men are somewhat less likely to agree with this statement (64%) than their unmarried counterparts (73%), but we found little difference by employment status, parental status, age, college education, or intact (no divorce) family upbringing. In other words, the primacy of “who you know” is clearly a widely shared conviction about the economic system, indivisible by the categories where we typically find differences. 


Figure 11. Percentage of men who agree with various statements on work and success  

Statement 2: "No matter how hard I work, people like me will never achieve the American Dream."

Half of young men strongly (19%) or somewhat (30%) agree with this statement. The American Dream has been defined in many ways, but we commonly understand it as the promise that working hard will lead to a certain standard of living, including such things as access to good housing, education, and the resources necessary to marry and raise a family. To be clear, we did not ask respondents how they define the American Dream. Assuming they hold something like this general picture of what it means, however, then it seems that many young men believe that current economic realities deny people like them the chance to attain a better and more secure future.

Full-time-equivalent (FTE) work, in the eyes of a large number, is not a sure route to achieving the American Dream. Among non-students and non-caregivers, over 4 in 10 (43%) of full-time and self-employed young men agree that, for “people like me,” the American Dream is inaccessible,” while even more of those not working endorse this view (60%). Similarly, about one-third (36%) of those with a BA degree or higher appear doubtful that their degree(s) is a ticket to social mobility. Those without a bachelor’s degree or pursuing one, however, are even more likely (54%) to see the American Dream as inaccessible.

Statement 3: "The constant pressure to perform and achieve just never ends."

This third statement is less directly about the value of hard work than about its endpoint or goal. It is, in part, a question about whether young men see a clear-cut destination toward which their effort and striving might be directed, or if they see something indeterminate and unreachable instead. Three-quarters are again either strongly (34%) or somewhat (42%) in agreement. And we observe little variation across sociodemographic groups. For instance, 80% of liberals and 78% of secular respondents endorse this view, but so do 75% of conservatives and 76% of religious respondents (these differences are not statistically significant). 

At first glance, there is a seeming defeatism in the agreement with these three statements. If investing one’s effort and doing it to the best of one’s ability does not lead to success and getting ahead, or, alternatively, leads to a “success” that is little more than a hamster wheel of endless striving, then perhaps trying hard makes little sense. Perhaps, rather than open, the future is already settled. 

To explore further, we presented two statements, drawn from the sociology of stress literature, to access respondents’ feelings of self-mastery and self-worth. Asked how well this statement—“I often feel that I have little control over the things that happen to me”—describes them, a remarkable 61% of young men say very (21%) or somewhat (40%) well. Only 1 in 10 say it does not describe them well at all. 

There is some minor variation. Those with a bachelor’s degree are less likely (51%) to endorse this statement than those who neither have, nor are pursuing, a BA (63%). Those who are not working (or students or caregivers) are more likely (72%) to say the statement fits than those working full-time (53%). This gap may well reflect the higher concentration among the unemployed, as we noted in Part I, of men dealing with current mental health and disability issues. Even so, over half of workers also feel limited control over their personal experience. Which is concerning, because a sense of agency in decision-making and responsibility is crucial to how young men define what it means to be adult.


Figure 12. Percentage of men who report that various statements describe them

The second statement, also phrased negatively, asked about self-appraisal: “all in all, I am inclined to think that I am a failure.” More than 4 in 10 young men feel this statement describes them “very well” (15%) or “somewhat well” (27%); only 1 in 3 fully reject it. If feeling little control expresses a powerlessness over one’s circumstances, judging oneself a failure surely expresses a deep demoralization. Many experiences might give rise to self-derogatory feelings, including the incessantly downbeat way in which they are addressed in our society and the “non-event stressors”—a concept defined by the sociologist Leonard Pearlin as the “disjunctures between socially valued goals and differential access to opportunities for their achievement”—that they are subject to in their everyday life.

We found, for instance, that men who are not working or in school are especially inclined (56%) to see the failure statement as describing them well. Similarly, those who have not graduated from college nor are pursuing a degree are more likely (47%) to endorse this statement than are those who hold one or are studying (32%). For men without jobs or college degrees, feelings of inferiority, such as feeling less than a full adult, may arise from the experience of failing to meet socially normative standards. They are expected to discover their purpose and excel at it, to adapt and seize opportunities, to show they are making something of themselves. Success in this regard is not a status they can confer on themselves. It requires, we might say, some evidence that is visible to others and acknowledged by them—the sort of evidence that, for example, contributes to the comparatively more esteemed feelings of married men, degree holders, and those fully employed. 

In this report, we have repeatedly observed very similar positive outcomes between college graduates and those who have completed trade school or an apprenticeship. But here, the outcomes for trade school or apprenticeship graduates, with 49% seeing themselves as failures, are much closer to those without degrees (46%). Whatever else could be at work producing this variance, we might recall the attitude we mentioned in Part I, Chapter 2. A substantial majority of young men agreed that “in our society, men who work in blue-collar jobs (construction, plumbing, etc.) are regarded as not very smart.” For men in those fields, some of their lower self-evaluation may come back to such socially induced and belittling beliefs. On another question, discussed below, men without BAs who graduated from trade school or an apprenticeship are the most likely (88%) to feel that people underestimate their potential.


Figure 13. Percentage of men who report feeling like a failure or like they have little control

Combined with the work and American Dream statements, feelings of lack of control and personal inadequacy appear to demonstrate a fatalistic attitude for many. However, the response to the three positive statements we presented appears to complicate, if not contradict, this conclusion. These statements include: (1) “I have ambitious goals for my future,” (2) “I can do just about anything I really set my mind to,” and (3) “I feel confident that my opportunities in life will be greater than my parents.” Based on other responses from those we surveyed, we would predict that most young men would put little stock in such claims for themselves.

But that is not what we found—not even close. Even to the greater-opportunities statement, 75% think it describes them at least somewhat well. Similarly, 81% and 84% of respondents say the same about their capacities and ambition, respectively. In each case, full disagreement is rare. When we exclude caregivers and current students from consideration, we find that those not working—who, again, include the most impaired—are less likely (74%) than full-time or self-employed respondents (86%) to report ambitious future goals; however, a solid majority of both groups report having ambition. Regular religious service attenders are more confident (85%) than nominal (77%) or secular (69%) respondents that their opportunities will exceed their parents’ opportunities, perhaps reflecting a belief in the possibility of divine assistance. In addition, college grads and trade school/apprenticeship grads (82%) expect better opportunities than those who neither have a BA nor are in school for one (72%). 

What could account for this surprisingly buoyant assessment? It is quite possible that a fatalism about the future, their power to assert control, and even their own self-worth is at the root of many respondents’ answers. Perhaps the stated optimism is a coping strategy. In the face of a highly unpredictable future and dogged experiences of failure, they have become convinced of their inability to alter unwanted circumstances, and so projecting themselves into the future or working out a realizable change of course just meets too many painful difficulties. Better to stay upbeat, while just going with the flow.

It may also be that young men have a too optimistic assessment of their own abilities and untapped potential, and that this self-portrait leads them to blame themselves or external forces for their inadequacies or situation in life. 

Alternatively, while many young men may have lost faith in meritocracy and felt the sting of structural obstacles to their attainment of adult social goals, they still retain a faith in their own powers to get them through. Some may feel like a failure so far. They have not discovered their purpose, or advanced to where they expect to be, or found a romantic partner who will return their interest, but they are still young and have not necessarily given up on themselves, or on the possibility that things might develop in their favor. They are, we might say, alienated from the system but optimistic about themselves. 

A final set of statements sought to access any frustration respondents might experience at discrepancies between their perceived effort and outcomes. The first statement was: “I never seem to do enough to please people.” More than half (54%) find this to be at least somewhat true to their experience. The second statement also expressed a mismatch between self and others’ perceptions: “I have more potential to succeed than people think.” For more than 8 in 10 young men, this idea resonates, at least somewhat. As with many of the other questionnaire statements, there is some variation; for instance, those who are unemployed (and not a student or caregiver) are more likely to report not doing enough to please people, and less likely to assert unrecognized potential, than full-time or self-employed workers. Nevertheless, what stands out from these results is how many young men feel that their effort is constantly being found insufficient and their potential often underestimated. 

Frustration does not arise from indifference or apathy. Their responses suggest that many young men want others to treat them differently, to see that they are trying, to see that they have something valuable to offer. They want to be taken seriously, both for its own sake and perhaps also for the motivation that such respect might, in turn, give them to earn it. As we have emphasized, recognition is a two-way street. Rather than an easy accommodation to their circumstances, our findings in this area, as in others discussed earlier, suggest that young men care about their status, want to contribute, and are distressed by feelings of powerlessness. If anything, feigned indifference may be the coping mechanism. Convincing themselves or others they don’t really care may ease the pain of the gap between their experience and what they honestly desire their life to be.


Figure 14. Percentage of men who report that various statements describe them

Mental and Emotional Distress

Where individuals are chronically unable to exercise control over their circumstances, they report high rates of psychological distress. This stress response, like others we present in this report—including lacking the means to attain valued goals and experiencing the loss or absence of prized relationships—is well-established in the research literature. As we find in this survey, many young men, in one or another aspect of their lives, encounter these types of social arrangements. We would anticipate mental health problems and maladaptive coping strategies. 

We therefore asked respondents if they had ever been diagnosed or treated by a healthcare professional for six conditions, and whether they were currently experiencing symptoms or being treated. Earlier, in Part I, Chapter 2, we discussed autism, dyslexia, and ADHD. Here, we consider bipolar disorder, depression, and any anxiety disorder. The percentages of respondents who reported these conditions are presented below. We find an immense burden of suffering, somewhat higher than the rates in epidemiological studies for this gender and age group. It’s possible that some young men answered on the basis of symptoms, rather than more narrowly in terms of professional diagnosis and treatment. 

Sixteen percent of respondents report ever being diagnosed or treated for bipolar, a chronic disorder characterized by extreme mood swings, with 8% currently being treated. Of these 8% receiving treatment, only half (excluding students and caregivers) are working full time. In addition, just 4% of those with current bipolar disorder graduated from college, a much lower share than the 27% of those who never experienced this illness. In addition, those with current or past bipolar disorder are around twice as likely (32% and 30%, respectively) to be an unmarried father as those without a history of this disorder (15%).



Figure 15. Percentage of men diagnosed with or being treated for various mental illnesses  

Depression and anxiety disorders are even more commonly reported: 37% of young men indicate having suffered from depression, with 21% continuing to experience symptoms and/or receive treatment. Whether this describes persistent sadness, ongoing loneliness, or simply weariness about their situation, we cannot say, but plainly an extraordinarily large number of young men are under a dark cloud. Those reporting an anxiety disorder are similarly steep: 33% report having anxiety, and 21% report current symptoms or treatment. As these conditions often overlap, when the three disorders are grouped together, we find that 45% of our respondents have experienced at least one of them, and 29% are currently doing so. Among possible treatments, we asked all respondents (not just those reporting a diagnosed condition) if they had taken a prescription medication for their mental or emotional health in the past 12 months. We find that 1 in 3 (35%) young men have taken a medication in that time period, with 12% currently doing so on a daily basis.


Figure 16. Percentage of men diagnosed with or being treated for depression, by various characteristics

Like so many areas of analysis in this report, no demographic is immune to mental health challenges, but certain groups are especially likely to report current symptoms or treatment. For example, 41% of respondents who are neither working nor in school are currently experiencing anxiety, depression, or bipolar disorder—about twice the rate (21%) of full-time-employed and self-employed respondents who are not in school. Religious respondents are less likely (20%) to report current symptoms or treatment for one of these three disorders than those who are nominal (30%) or secular (32%). In addition, married men with kids are around half as likely (16%) to have current anxiety, bipolar disorder, or depression as those who are married without kids (31%) and those who are unmarried without kids (31%). Finally, those with a BA are less likely (18%) to report one of these disorders than those who neither have, nor are pursuing, a college degree (32%). 

Depression and anxiety affect a significant fraction of all respondents, testifying to the pathogenic circumstances under which young men are coming of age. Of course, survey data like ours can discover associations between variables, such as depression and not working; but we cannot determine whether depression is a cause of not working or perhaps a result. We do see that the unemployed (and not in school) are more likely to currently be experiencing depression (34%) or anxiety (32%) than those currently working full time (16% for depression; 15% for anxiety). At least for some, a mental health condition is almost certainly an obstacle to work. 

It is also the case, as social psychologists have long demonstrated, that higher degrees of social integration, represented by practices like marriage, education, and attending services, can provide some protection from “depressive forces” and a buffer against stress and negative life events. We find, for instance, that those who regularly attend religious services, at 14%, appear to be at lower risk of depression than those who seldom or never do (25%). Similarly, those who are both married and have kids are less likely to be depressed than those in other living situations. More and deeper relationships and social investments provide a better socially and emotionally supportive environment.


Figure 17. Percentage of men diagnosed with or being treated for anxiety, by various characteristics

Traumatic Experiences

In addition to the stressful circumstances discussed above, we also explored respondents’ experience of traumatic events that can have a negative effect on mental health. We presented five types of events, listed in the following figure, and asked if they had experienced any such event. An extraordinary 44% of young men report experiencing at least one of these stressful events. More than 1 in 4 (28%) say that a loved one of theirs has gone to prison. Roughly 1 in 5 (18%) have had a loved one die by drug overdose, and 1 in 6 (16%) have experienced the death of a loved one by suicide. Around 1 in 7 (14%) report knowing someone who died by homicide or witnessing someone be killed.

Perhaps even more significant, we also asked if respondents themselves had ever been incarcerated: 12% gave an affirmative response. (Another 59 respondents selected ‘prefer not to say,’ so this number could be even higher.)


Figure 18. Percentage of men who have experienced various traumatic events

In the figure below, we can see a clear association between the experience of potentially traumatic events and various mental health and learning conditions. In every case, from depression to ADHD, those with traumatic experiences are more likely to say they have ever been diagnosed or treated with one of these conditions. In the case of bipolar disorder, they are more than three times as likely. In addition, whereas only 4% of men without a history of trauma report having been incarcerated, 22% of those with such a history do. Again, survey data like ours cannot establish causation. What they do show, and clearly, is that many young men have been exposed to painful experiences and stressful events. For some of these men, this exposure has had harmful consequences.


Figure 19. Percentage of men by trauma history who have experienced mental health issues, loneliness, or incarceration

Maladaptive Coping With Screentime

In addition to stressful circumstances and exposure to potentially traumatic events, we also asked about various, typically online activities. Of all the themes in the public discourse around young men, none have received as much coverage as their heavy screen use, and none have been portrayed as having more dire consequences. In gaming and on social media, many have argued, young men are being incited to drop out of society, adopt aggressive, even violent behavior, objectify women, and flout social norms. In Part I, Chapter 3, we briefly considered the potential influence of the “manosphere” and reported that young men in our survey appear to be less taken with it and its image of manhood than pundits claim. But those were the only questions we asked that related to media messages. While it is not our contention that such messages are inconsequential, we are of the view, with some research justification, that the amount of time that young men play video games or gamble or watch pornography is far more significant than social media consumption (where the great majority of influencers are women). With electronic media, we used our limited questions on screentime. 

We come to this issue last because, in the interpretive scheme of this report, we place it among the responses to stressful circumstances. The predicament that young men find themselves in has been building for a long time. It did not emerge with electronic media but, as we have suggested, with more complex social changes that have made the world less stable and less certain, where the opportunity structure for men has changed dramatically, where goods like the American Dream, participation in a community, likelihood of marriage, and the work-reward nexus can no longer be taken for granted. A sense of isolation and alienation, and of having—as we put it in the survey—“little control over the things that happen to me” has followed on these changes. In this sense, the constant use of media is, in part, a coping mechanism against demoralization, but one that, as we will see, also contributes to it.

In the survey, we asked young men how often they engaged in any of eight activities, from using social media to streaming videos to trading on the stock market. The six-option response scale ranged from “almost constantly” to “about once a day” to “never.” In this report, we want to focus on four of the activities: using social media, gambling (including making bets on sports and other events, but not stocks), watching pornography, and playing video games. In terms of frequency, young men engage with each of these practices at very high rates—which, of course, overlap, as young people have many platforms and screens running at the same time. After considering the numbers, we will turn to an analysis of how the high rates of these practices correlate with negative outcomes, especially feeling lonely and like a failure.

Social Media Use

Social media use, the first concern, is nearly universal. Just 4% of young men say they do not use any platform. A majority (70%) are tuned in almost constantly (30%) or many times a day (40%), and in similar proportions across every demographic group, including the full-time employed, conservatives, married parents, and holders of college degrees. Although frequency varies somewhat, there is no social-media-free group of young men.


Figure 20. Percent of men who use social media by various characteristics

Gambling

Almost overnight, gambling, including sports and event betting, has become another fixture in the lives of young men. In fact, more than half of young men in our survey are now gamblers. Nearly 1 in 4 (23%) report that they gamble daily, plus 12% doing so more than several times a week, and a further 21% at least some of the time. As the figure below shows, conservatives (32%), those currently in school (34%), and unmarried men with children (39%) are the most frequent daily gamblers.


Figure 21. Percentage of men who gamble by various characteristics

Pornography Use

The prevalence of pornography use, the third concern, is well known and well documented. As the figure below shows, 43% of young men say they watch pornography daily (27%) or several times a week (16%), with another 26% about weekly or less. We might expect the daily watchers to be the most troubled, not in work or school, and living in their parents’ basement. While there is some truth to that, we also find daily use among married men (21%), the regular religious service attenders (24%), those who hold full-time jobs (23%), and those currently in school (32%). While 30% of young men say that they never watch pornography, they are not concentrated in any one demographic group. 


Figure 22. Percentage of men who use pornography by various characteristics

Video Games

Finally, we turn to gaming habits, which like the other three activities, have become a fundamental feature of the world of most young men. To simplify the next figure, we combined the six use options into four: “many times a day or more,” “daily,” “several times a week or less,” and “never.” Like social media, only a very small minority of young men, 5%, report “never” playing video games. An incredible 44% report playing many times a day or more, and another 22% report playing about “once a day.” Taken together, 66% are playing a video game at least once a day. There is some variation in daily users: younger men and those without a degree play more frequently.

To be clear, the issue here is not with a pleasant pastime, or occasional diversion, or a way to hang out with friends. Some use, of course, does fit that description. For example, we asked young men about the reasons they play video games. About 4 in 10 agree that “an opportunity to interact with others or make friends” is one of their reasons. Their playing is a source of camaraderie and collaboration, which, as we have seen, is often in short supply. A similar percentage agree that playing provides “an opportunity to feel a sense of mastery or accomplishment.” Again, this is the sort of experience that may be otherwise hard to come by. At the same time, nearly half agree that they play as “a way to temporarily escape real-life responsibilities,” and more than 25% as “a chance to be someone different.” These reasons are not all bad, but the escaping doesn’t look so temporary when virtually every free moment is dedicated to playing. The sheer extent of the gaming suggests a compulsion and a lack of freedom, not to mention the many other valuable activities that it obviously displaces. 

The confinement is similar with social media, gambling, and the other screen activities that have come to absorb so much of young men’s daily life. Such constant activities are enervating, at odds with other valuable goods in life, including relationships, and yet another cause and effect of demoralization. 


Figure 23. Percentage of men who play video games by various characteristics

Correlations with Distress

Turning now to the question of consequences. Earlier in this chapter, we reported that more than 4 in 10 young men (42%) believe that the statement “all in all, I am inclined to think that I am a failure” describes them “very well” (15%) or “somewhat well” (27%). As the next figure shows (which lists all eight of the screen activities we asked about), those who engage daily with social media and video games (which is nearly everyone) report feeling like a failure at about the same rate as those who engage less or never (or message/text or stream videos). However, those who view pornography (63%) and gamble (66%) every day—along with day trading and playing fantasy sports—are significantly more inclined to see themselves as a failure.


Figure 24. Percentage of men who feel like failures by frequent use of certain technology

We also found a correlation between high levels of these activities and reported loneliness. Respondents who gamble many times a day or “almost constantly” are more likely (34%) than those who gamble less often or never (24%) to feel lonely all, or most, of the time. With pornography, those who watch extensively (many times a day or almost constantly) are more likely than less frequent viewers to report loneliness (43% vs. 23%), as well as higher rates of anxiety and depression (see below). Those who play video games almost constantly report more loneliness than less frequent gamers (34% vs. 23%), as do constant users of social media (30% vs. 24%).


Figure 25. Percentage of men who experience various mental health issues by use of pornography

As in other cases, we cannot determine what comes first. Those who watch pornography many times a day or even more, report current depression at twice the rate as those who watch once a day or less. Does watching pornography lead to depression, or do the depressed turn to pornography for relief? The causal arrow may very well go in both directions. But in either case, watching pornography appears to be, at best, ineffective as a coping mechanism for dealing with dejection, stress, and loneliness, and more likely maladaptive.

Gambling and Self-Reported Problems

In the case of gambling, we asked young men for their own assessment of the effects that regular betting (several times a week or more) was having on their emotional health and everyday life. The first question asked to what degree online gambling might be causing emotional distress. As examples of distress, we listed mental pain or anguish, shame, guilt, and embarrassment, and the 5-point response scale was none, mild, moderate, severe, or extreme. The second question, with the same response scale, focused on how much personal trouble their gambling might be causing, such as with relationships or financial, legal, and employment issues. 

Respondent’s answers strongly suggest that activities like gambling cause distress and create many problems of their own. For both questions, the responses were similar. (See the figure below.) Around 1 in 10 young men characterize gambling-related distress and life problems as severe or extreme. Another 29% consider them “moderate,” and a similar percentage as “mild.” Perhaps we can see why those who report gambling many times a week or more also report more loneliness. Clearly, gambling, for whatever reason they got involved, is taking a toll that young men themselves recognize and acknowledge.


Figure 26. Percentage of men who gamble and experience distress, by various characteristics

With our survey, we set out to address subjects of public concern and asked young men, ages 18-29, a wide range of questions about their work, education, childhood, attitudes, aspirations, life experiences, social support, mental health, and electronic media use. In our exposition of their responses, we have sought to show significant correlations, provide some context for their answers, and offer some interpretation of what those answers mean. We turn now to a summary of what we have learned.

Conclusion: What Did We Learn?

In the introduction to Part I of this two-part report, we began with a brief description of the common “narrative” about the troubles facing young men. It goes like this: a growing number—too many—are failing in school, not working or studying, not dating or forming families, not leaving their childhood bedrooms. They are checked out from social life, have few, if any, friends, and belong to few, if any, social or civic groups. Their mental health is poor, their habits are bad—video games, pornography, gambling, pot-smoking—and their views are extremist. As commonly told, the dark story of their failures is, at least implicitly, set against a more successful comparison group, whether young women or older generations of men.

To explain the crisis—or perhaps better said, multiple, overlapping crises—we mentioned three of the common causal explanations. First, are the more “structural” accounts. In this view, economic and educational changes are the most important contributing factors to the dire circumstances of young men. Social scientist Richard Reeves, for example, highlights the structural changes in his book Of Boys and Men. He writes: 

Boys are falling behind at school and college because the educational system is structured in ways that put them at a disadvantage. Men are struggling in the labor market because of an economic shift away from traditionally male jobs. And fathers are dislocated because the cultural role of family provider has been hollowed out.

In other words, the struggles of young men are symptoms of wider institutional and economic alterations, including detrimental school policies, the loss of traditional male jobs, such as in manufacturing, and the decline of working-class men’s wages. As much evidence shows, policies that changed the opportunity structure have been systematically disadvantageous to men.

A second explanation puts the onus of deficiencies in young men themselves. Most tellings of the “narrative,” at least implicitly, take this moralizing stance. In these critiques, the male malaise includes some combination of laziness, lack of motivation, aimlessness, and resignation. In his 2023 book Manhood, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, for example, faults liberal ideology and its “disdain for masculinity” for creating the crisis, yet then holds young men accountable to solve it. As he writes, they can:

turn off their screens and reclaim responsibility for their lives; they can reject the Epicurean siren song of self-indulgence, that soothing lullaby that is really just a means of keeping men distracted and dependent; they can stop taking handouts; they can find a wife and start a family; they can, in sum, get their character in order and reclaim their independence as men. Or not.

In this view, men have allowed themselves to be led astray and something like a good kick in the pants is needed. Challenged to wake up and abandon their lethargy, young men can grow up and start doing their duty. 

A third account of the crisis centers on the misguided socialization of men. According to one form of this explanation, young men’s problems arise from standards, taught to them from an early age, of toughness, self-sufficiency, competitiveness, and stoicism. In its 2023 “State of American Men” report, for instance, Equimundo: Center for Masculinities and Social Justice, argued:

Masculine norms such as these govern every aspect of men’s and boys’ lives and are woven into family life, schools, sports, and other community spaces. Such norms deprive young men of more caring alternatives, ways to confidently own their identity as caring, emotionally connected, cooperative people. Many feel totally disconnected and retreat to private lives of underachievement, underemployment, and online addiction—and to the pretense that they can go it alone. Some may find solace in misogyny and white supremacy.

“Traditional” gender roles are the culprit and need to be replaced with “healthy masculinities” (plural) that train boys/men to be more open, honest, emotionally vulnerable, and equity-seeking.

A conservative version of the socialization argument is that men have “no vision for what it is to be a man,” to quote Hawley again, are living without male role models, and trying to survive in a society that no longer prioritizes the masculine virtues.

While not exhaustive, these theories are frequently invoked, and we designed our survey, in part, with them in mind (and so we, too, deal more in problems than strengths). Considering what young men reported, we want to come back and briefly reflect on these explanations. A survey like ours—any survey—cannot provide causal explanations or settle complex questions. The contributing factors are multiple and explanations in terms of structural changes, individual deficiency, or socialization certainly offer some degree of insight into the predicament of young men. While our findings resist the “narrative” framing, it is not because the problems aren’t genuine; it is because the interpretations miss crucial features of the context, a context not of young men’s making.

In fact, none of the problems are in any way unique to young men. What makes these men stand out in specific areas is a somewhat more acute struggle than others. Loneliness and isolation, living with parents and delaying marriage, depression and anxiety, endless social media, pornography, and on-line gambling, work and money troubles, and all the rest afflict many young men, to be sure, but they afflict young women and older cohorts of men, if differently, as well. The most we can say is that depending on the issue, some are faring relatively better than others.

That said, our concern here is not with making comparisons to women or older men but with the very real challenges facing young men and with how our findings square with the “narrative” and the three primary explanations on offer. 

Structural Change

Among the causal explanations, the structural argument is the one that finds the most support here by far. Though typically centered on education and employment, the loss of “structure” we discerned running through the survey responses also extends to wider issues. The social fabric itself has thinned, a deinstitutionalization, as sociologists call it, that has left our world more formless. Over time, there has been a sharp decline of prescribed roles, inherited life courses, clear occupational and educational trajectories, and the like. Where there was once a given social pattern, an “institution,” like sustained work for the same company, there is now a more open and indeterminate field of options and choices. A precarious freedom, with less guidance from shared beliefs, customs, rules, or forms of life. 

We see what is lost by the importance of the college track, which remains (though under pressure) an institutionalized educational pathway. By nearly every metric, we find, men who took this route and stayed with it to graduation—college, trade school, apprenticeships—are faring the best. This benefit, incidentally, often does not appear while they were in college/training, which could be a lonely, distressing time. Rather, it came afterwards when it opened doors or widened horizons to stable employment, friendships, marital partners, household establishment, community affiliation, and much else. These are the men most likely to feel they have reached full adulthood, are not a failure, not unwanted, and have some control over what happens to them. 

But the higher education pathway is not open to many men, including, as we find, for financial reasons, family responsibilities, or because they simply do not feel they will succeed. Conditions that affect learning for example, like ADHD, autism, and dyslexia, are common among young men (about 25% report a current issue). Trade school or an apprenticeship program is clearly an option and a good one (15% have completed a program, with high employment), but we know from other studies that schools heavily stress college-for-all and are only now beginning to reintroduce shop class and talk about alternatives. In most situations, any clearly defined non-college pathway or school-to-employer pipelines are missing. Young men, not on the college track, often step into a void after high school, bouncing around entry-level jobs, and may only discover a vocation, such as a trade, much later. While varying somewhat by industry, the average age of an apprentice in the U.S. is 29.

In the current economic environment, where work is now more fluid and uncertain, we find that the focus for many young men is not employment, per se, but a good income. There is a logic to this position. As those making structural arguments have long observed, real wages for young men have stagnated or declined in recent decades for such reasons as the offshoring of manufacturing, cheap migrant labor, and the steady elimination of private-sector labor unions. And the loss of male jobs has continued, accelerated by the pandemic. Other shifts have increased the volatility of the economy, such as the rise of unstable gig work, the disruption of new technologies, and now the looming threat of job loss due to AI. 

This is not the old job market, and attitudes have changed. We find that many young men do not see a direct relationship between hard work and getting ahead. Rather, they appear to view things as more random, circumstantial, indeterminate, such that, for instance, success is a matter of who you know (72% agreement); what happens to me is not under my control (61%); the pressure to achieve just never ends (77%). Even half of college graduates doubt that their education was worth the time or money. Young men still retain a belief in their opportunities, yet how they expect to realize them might be better indicated by their extensive gambling and day-trading than by steady work in a 9-5 job. Even economists have taken to referring to the current situation as a “casino economy.”

The lack of institutionalized social forms affects young men in many other personal ways. For example, with the long-running decline of voluntary associations—churches, service clubs, adult sports leagues, and the like—and the instability of the family (only about 60% of our respondents had the consistent presence of his father), young men are thrown back on themselves to find and create relationships of commitment and friendship. We show that while most unmarried or unpartnered young men want to date, it is rough sailing. Many cannot find someone who will go out with them (reported by about 50%) and—witnessing to the more amorphous and fraught circumstances—are reluctant to ask a woman on a date, out of fear of being turned down. 

Those without institutional connections, without some community or church or school, are in the grimmest circumstances in terms of friendship and social integration. How, we might ask, are these men to form such relationships, when, “historically,” to quote Sam Pressler and Soren Duggan, they “have been more the gifts of generational inheritance,” than the result of some go-getter initiative? They continue:

We inherit many overlapping webs of association … [and] the relationships we form through these shared associations—family, religion, community, place, or otherwise—beget new relationships and new associations. Contrary to the self-help ethos that pervades our society, relationships and community have never been solely individual choices to make nor individual responsibilities to develop.

On these points and much else, we find social formlessness to be like a raging storm in which many young men are struggling to find some secure foothold. 

Individual Deficiency

The deficiency argument, if we can call it that, is not so much a causal explanation as it is a set of assumptions about young men’s state of mind. The idea is that young men, or at least a lot of them, are lost, apathetic, resentful, nihilistic, or other such adverse descriptors. They have become indifferent to the world around them, with little ambition, a tendency to blame others for their problems, and a desire to just be left alone. But when we asked young men themselves, we find nothing of the sort. In fact, most young men: have worthy goals, including for marriage, children, and financial independence; value a sense of belonging, warm relationships, and being well-respected; understand their role as men to be responsible and make sacrifices for others (greater than 85% agreement); and have ambitious goals for their future. And if they blame anyone, it is themselves. 

We show that many young men are in a kind of liminal position. The twenties, of course, are an in-between time of life for most everyone, part of that period now commonly referred to as “emerging adulthood” and characterized by transition and ambiguity. But we have something more specific in mind. On the one hand, young men have a sense for what a full life might look like—admirable, rewarding, joined in purpose with a family, contributing, and belonging. They see the promise, and they have not given up hope for its realization. On the other hand, they are not yet living that life or even moving toward it, and this quandary is a source of stress and feelings of failure—the stress of being aware of falling short of their own goals and of the social expectations of others, of lacking friends and meaningful connections, of being subordinate to seemingly implacable conditions over which they have little control, and of not knowing what to do or how to extricate themselves.

These are demoralizing conditions. We are not using the word in any clinical sense, but in the psychiatric literature on demoralization, the type of conditions we find are described as highly conducive to anxiety and depression, which many men report, as well as another experience, namely, “becoming helpless.” While we did not have a direct question about feeling helpless, we did see substantial agreement (61%) with the statement, “I often feel that I have little control over the things that happen to me.” When we consider the extremes to which many are engaged with on-line activities, it is hard not to suspect a kind of paralysis that is impeding purposeful action.

As we discuss in Part II, frequent recourse to some of the on-line activities, including gambling and porn viewing, are associated with greater loneliness, depression, and feelings of failure, suggesting both an enervating effect of these activities and that young men are turning to them as a means of coping with the stress of their predicament. At a minimum, it seems safe to say that these activities are serving to fill voids in real-life experience, for challenges or achievement or dates, or are engaged with the hopes of escaping their present circumstances into a different reality, the fuller life they envision. And, in the one area we asked about, young men themselves report that their gambling is leading to emotional distress.

The point here is that speaking in terms of individual deficiency misses the changed context. Without situating their experience in the reality of their circumstances, we cannot see that their feelings and actions are, at least partly, a reply to it. Lacking that, their struggles appear to be about nothing, which, unsurprisingly, is met with little sympathy—they are lying on the bed they have made for themselves. 

Socialization

To their credit, those advancing a socialization argument do engage with our changed social circumstances. They raise a fundamental question about masculinity. For present purposes, we want to set aside whatever truth claims are at issue. Instead, we want to treat the question as a way of asking what sort of “self,” if you will, young men need in order to flourish in the world as we find it now. 

As noted above, in this complex and dynamic world, greater formlessness requires that individuals be more self-determining, with many more decisions to make and increased responsibility to define their own life purpose, create their own social bonds, and so on. The demand, for men and women, is to have a masterful self and the requisite abilities are to be assertive, confident, flexible, and enterprising on one side, while also being emotionally intelligent, sensitive, caring, and team-oriented, on the other. In the socialization arguments, the problem of young men is that they are missing one side or the other of this requisite self.             

We find that a large majority of men (73%) believe that in recent decades it has become harder to know what it is to be a man. They may well be referring to the new combination of required qualities. It is not hard to imagine how getting it right might be a tricky business for many boys and young men today. However, the views of manhood they overwhelmingly affirm come down on both sides of the ledger. Manhood involves strength, responsibility and leadership, and it means a willingness to sacrifice for others. They affirm that no one should be coerced to fit any one model, and when asked about people they admire, the manosphere influencer Andrew Tate got low marks. Admittedly thin, nothing in our data suggests that lots of young men are under undue influence from bad characters or clinging to views of masculinity that could be legitimately described as “toxic.”     

In fact, when it comes to those they looked up to as role models, first mothers (79%) and then fathers (69%) led the list by a wide margin. Considering the views of manhood that young men endorse, it is not readily apparent that they have “no vision for what it is to be a man,” to repeat the quote from Senator Hawley. It seems like they do, and perhaps not so different from the one he holds. There is no question that fathers play a key role in the lives of their sons (and daughters). We find that those young men who report a good or very good relationship with their father are also the most institutionally embedded. They are more likely to be married, for instance, to have education beyond high school, and to belong to a church. How this relates to claims about a lack of masculine role models, however, is not so clear.

The wider problem here is the required self, what one is expected to be. Never have young people been asked to shoulder such burdens of autonomous self-making. That some can thrive in this fluid, entrepreneurial environment does not mean everyone can or should be expected to. Withdrawing, feeling like a failure or “never enough,” to borrow a phrase common in the books about the different but no less pervasive struggles of young women, may not be a failure of manhood. It may be a symptom of our collective impoverishment, which asks of young men something that our society no longer can or will provide.

Editor's Note: For references, notes, and more, please download the full report below.


Report

Family Structure, a Key Factor Hidden in Plain Sight: The Case for Federal Reporting in Education

July 2026 | by Ian Rowe, Brad Wilcox, Grant Bailey

July 2026

by Ian Rowe, Brad Wilcox, Grant Bailey

Family structure is an important factor in student success, according to this new AEI/IFS analysis of the National Survey of Children’s Health.

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Executive Summary

The federal government collects a wealth of data to help us understand what drives child outcomes in student learning, health, and economic security. Yet the government often leaves out a critical factor in its public reporting: family structure. In this report, we focus on education as one example of this exclusion. The National Assessment of Educational Progress from the US Department of Education disaggregates student performance by factors such as race and ethnicity, sex, and poverty. However, it does not report student scores by family structure on the official Nation’s Report Card—even though it has been systematically collecting these data since 2013. This omission deprives policymakers, educators, professionals, and parents of valuable insights into one of the most powerful predictors of academic success.

Indeed, this report’s analysis of the National Survey of Children’s Health demonstrates that children raised in “intact” families (in which the biological or adoptive parents are together and married) are far more likely to thrive in school and life than are their peers from other households. We find that children in non-intact households—where children are living with stepfamilies, cohabitating parents, single parents, or foster or kin-based families such as in grandparent-led homes—are 13 percent less likely to receive A’s and B’s than those raised in an intact, married-parent home, 47 percent more likely to have their parents contacted for problems at school, and more than twice as likely to be depressed. We also find, in this instance, that family structure is a more powerful predictor of school problems, academic performance, and depression than are race and poverty.

These are important findings because public policies, research, and discussions related to education, human services, and health policy often focus on race and poverty but neglect family composition. Indeed, despite the federal government’s commitment to reporting outcomes by different demographic groups, family structure is often ignored. Though our findings in this analysis are not necessarily general results, they indicate that family structure ought to be studied further to determine the extent to which its predictive strength is a general result.

To remedy this, key federal reports from the Department of Education and other federal agencies that monitor child well-being should make family structure a standard and consistent data category used to report child outcomes. They should also make sure standard family-structure categories are included in reports that analyze surveys on child well-being. Doing so would shed light on the impact different family compositions have in shaping student outcomes and children’s well-being. These data insights would empower key stakeholders to move beyond incomplete or misleading narratives about the causes of educational, health, and economic disparities and enable them to better serve children in their care.

By providing the public with a clearer picture of how family structure influences children’s health, student success, and economic security, federal agencies can empower schools, communities, local and state governments, professionals who work with children, and parents to address family structure when they are dealing with issues related to children’s educational success, physical and emotional well-being, and financial security. Better reporting will also help policymakers, educators, and civic leaders educate the public about the family’s role in helping children flourish inside and outside of school. Finally, reporting student outcomes by family structure will help young people understand the impact that different family types have on a range of child outcomes, thus making them more proactive regarding their own future family formation.

Introduction

American education is in crisis. In the past decade, student performance in reading and math has fallen and reports of student misbehavior have risen. The problems are visible for younger and older students alike. Based on the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), for instance, the number of fourth-grade students scoring at the lowest category of reading capability (“below basic”) now exceeds the number of fourth-grade students reading at or above NAEP “proficient” levels. As Figure 1 indicates, this trend in fourth-grade reading began to accelerate in 2017.

Similar declines are visible for older students. According to the 2024 NAEP for 12th graders, the average percentile scores in reading and math were the lowest since the respective subject matter tests began in 1992 and 2005.

American students’ failing academic performance is just the latest evidence of American education’s current crisis, and it underscores why Secretary of Education Linda McMahon has prioritized improving reading and mathematical performance as the foundation for lifelong achievement.

Indeed, as the Trump administration reimagines the federal government’s role in K–12 education, the government has an opportunity to expand the essential data it provides to help educators, parents, professionals, and the general public understand the key factors helping children succeed or putting them at risk of failure in school. Toward that end, scholars from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for Family Studies wrote this report to focus on a crucial aspect of a child’s life that affects their academic trajectory but is often ignored: the structure of the family in which they are raised. Family structure reflects the various types of families children grow up in today, including those with married parents, single parents, stepfamilies, cohabitating parents, and foster and kin-based families such as grandparent-led homes.

While NAEP has collected information on family structure for more than a decade, it does not disaggregate student outcomes by family structure in its reporting. This should change. We argue that NAEP should regularly report family structure as a category alongside the legally required demographic categories of gender, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, disability status, and “English learner” status. While the latter data categories are required by law, NAEP is not necessarily prohibited from reporting student scores by additional categories.

What’s Missing from NAEP Analyses

Recent declines in NAEP scores underline the crisis unfolding in our nation’s schools. But our ability to address this crisis has been hamstrung by our inability to understand and address all the key factors in play. Many studies on students’ poor performance have focused on race, poverty, or economic inequality and excluded family structure.

For instance, Stanford University Sociologist Sean F. Reardon has explored the role of income- and race-based gaps in student performance using a range of datasets, including NAEP, to argue that income gaps are growing in student performance. Economists Erik A. Hanushek, Paul E. Peterson, Laura M. Talpey, and Ludger Woessmann conducted a landmark longitudinal study using data from four national assessments of student performance, and they came to a different conclusion. They argued that the “opportunity gap—that is, the relationship between socioeconomic status and achievement—has not grown over the past 50 years.” But these important studies did not explore family structure’s role in shaping student performance.

Likewise, other recent analyses of NAEP results have focused almost exclusively on the absolute achievement levels and categorical disparities for a set of “usual suspect” demographic groupings, such as race and ethnicity and socioeconomic status. For example, while 39 percent of all eighth-grade students performed below NAEP’s basic math level in 2024, a more detailed analysis disaggregated by race shows that 62 percent of black eighth-grade students scored below NAEP’s basic level, as did 54 percent of Hispanic eighth graders.

Missing from all these studies and federal reports of NAEP results, however, is disaggregated information about students’ family structure. This absence is a glaring omission in the effort to better understand the key factors that influence student learning and account for the current crises in American education. It is even more confounding given that since 2013, NAEP has consistently and continuously collected information on family structure from students, but it has never reported it.

According to the historical log NAEP has kept since 2000, the 2013 NAEP Student Questionnaire for Reading Grade 4 introduced a new question: “Do any of the following people live in your home?” The answer set allows children to choose multiple answers: mother, father, stepmother, stepfather, foster mother or other female legal guardian, or foster father or other male legal guardian. (See Figure 2.)

From 2013 to 2024, NAEP has included this same query on student questionnaires across mathematics, reading, science, civics, geography, and US history in grades four, eight, and 12. Recognizing that this information had previously gone uncollected, NAEP clearly made a deliberate choice to comprehensively gather family-structure information in more recent years.

Yet NAEP has not proactively reported student achievement information disaggregated by family structure, nor has NAEP made it easily accessible on the NAEP Data Explorer tool. While reporting student outcomes by broad demographic categories is valuable and necessary, it is insufficient. Omitting family structure in NAEP’s reporting could create three significant negative consequences:

  • Crucial nuances related to other demographic factors may be obscured when key factors like family structure are excluded. This can lead to misdiagnosing the reasons children are succeeding or failing academically. For example, according to the American Community Survey, 80 percent of Asian children and 69 percent of white children live with their married birth parents. This compares with only 52 percent of Latino children and 30 percent of black children. More detailed analysis is required to show how disparities in family structure within the race category may be more relevant for student outcomes than the umbrella concept of race itself. In other words, when scholars, policymakers, and educators focus on race and ethnicity as key drivers of student outcomes and overlook family structure, they may unduly emphasize these drivers and miss how much family-related factors matter for student outcomes.
  • There is a misguided school of thought arguing that any disparity in a broad demographic category must be due to discrimination within that category. This is a causal fallacy—mistaking correlation for causation. For example, some believe that racial disparities in student outcomes must be caused solely by racism, as opposed to other factors such as differences in family structure across race. These reductionist conclusions, particularly regarding race, have led to the embrace of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives focusing on race and ethnicity as the key drivers of student performance. But by overlooking important factors like family structure that shape student achievement, approaches focusing on race, ethnicity, or socioeconomic disadvantages may miss understanding and addressing family dynamics that are more consequential for students than their race and ethnicity or economic status.
  • Omitting family structure squanders the opportunity to delineate how different family types within family structure affect student development. For example, in its 2010 report Family Structure and Children’s Health in the United States, the National Center for Health Statistics declared that “in view of the changing family-structure distribution, new categories of families such as unmarried families or unmarried stepfamilies need to be studied so that the health characteristics of children in nontraditional families can be identified.” The report defined seven distinct and mutually exclusive family structures: nuclear, single-parent, blended, unmarried biological or adoptive families, cohabitating, extended, and other—the last being a family consisting of one or more children living with related or unrelated adults who are not biological or adoptive parents (e.g., grandparents).

While NAEP doesn’t report on student achievement outcomes by family structure, analysis of other government surveys reveals the specific impact family structure can have on academic outcomes. For instance, in Virginia, the Good Fathers, Flourishing Kids report found there is no racial divide in academic performance between white and black children from intact families. (For the purposes of our report, “intact families” are homes headed by children’s married birth or adoptive parents, and “non-intact” families are households where children are raised by stepparents, single parents, cohabitating parents, foster parents, or kin such as grandparents.) This suggests that family structure may be more explanatory than race when studying some student outcomes. Likewise, the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth indicated that family structure is about as powerful a predictor of college graduation as family income or race is.

Here, we examine the National Survey of Children’s Health to explore the associations between family structure, race and ethnicity, poverty, and three key outcomes for students inside and outside of the classroom: the number of times a school contacts a household regarding their child’s behavioral or learning problems, student GPA, and depression.

Student Outcomes

Schools Contacting Households Regarding a Student’s Behavioral or Learning Problems

Family structure is a strong predictor of issues at school. Children from intact, married-parent families were the least likely to have their parents contacted by schools for behavioral or learning problems, as shown in Figure 3. Indeed, nearly a third of children (30 percent) who were from non-intact homes or had unmarried parents had their home contacted for problems at school in the previous year, compared with one in five children (20 percent) from intact, married-parent families.

These disparities persist when we control for student race, income, parental education, student sex, and student age. We find that across these factors, family structure is the strongest predictor of problems at school, as shown in Figure 4. Net of controls, children living in non-intact homes or with unmarried parents were 47 percent more likely to have their parents contacted by their school than were children from intact, married-parent families.

This disparity surpasses the differences between boys and girls, with boys’ homes being 38 percent more likely to be contacted by their school. Black children were 17 percent more likely to have their home contacted by their school than white children were; the effect was insignificant for Hispanic children versus white children.

Likewise, children from households earning below the federal poverty level were only 16 percent more likely to have their school contact their home net of controls than were higher-income families (or households with an income four times or more over the federal poverty level). We found no significant difference in the number of times schools contacted households when factoring for residential parents’ highest education level. This indicates that family structure surpasses race, poverty, and parental education as a predictor of school problems in the National Survey of Children’s Health.

Good Grades

The relationship between the classroom and homelife goes beyond behavior. We find that family structure is also associated with grade outcomes, with children from intact, married-parent families outperforming their peers from non-intact families.

Note how family structure relates to student grades. We find that, as in the case of misbehavior in school, kids from intact, married-parent families tend to do the best (Figure 5). From 2022 to 2024, 74 percent of children age six to 17 from intact, married-parent families got A’s and B’s or straight A’s. This compares with 60 percent of those from non-intact homes or living with unmarried parents—a 14 percentage point gap.

This GPA premium for intact, married-parent families holds even with demographic controls. After controlling for race, income, the residential parents’ highest education level, student sex, and student age, we found that parental education and family structure were the two strongest predictors of grade outcomes for children in the United States (Figure 6). Children from non-intact or unmarried-parent households were 13 percent less likely to have received A’s and B’s or better, compared with children from intact, married-parent families. Students who did not have a residential parent with a college degree were 13 percent less likely to get A’s and B’s, compared with those who had a college-educated parent.

The family-structure effect is greater than that of family income and child race. After controlling for other factors, children living below the federal poverty level were 10 percent less likely to have good grades compared with those 400 percent above the federal poverty level. Black children were 7 percent less likely to have received A’s and B’s or better than were their white peers, and Hispanic children were 2 percent less likely. To summarize, growing up in an intact, married-parent home has an effect on GPA comparable to that of growing up with a college-educated parent. Family structure is more predictive of success in school than race, income, and sex.

Depression

There is a substantial difference in children’s depression rates across household structure. Children from intact, married-parent families have the lowest rates of diagnosed depression (Figure 7). More specifically, just 3.4 percent of children age six to 17 from intact, married-parent families had been diagnosed with depression from 2022 to 2024. On the other hand, children from non-intact or unmarried-parent homes had over twice the rate of depression (7.9 percent).

As shown in Figure 8, these effects hold after controlling for race, income, parental education, and student sex and student age. Of these factors, age was most predictive: Depression is substantially more prevalent among children in their late teens compared with younger children. After age, however, family structure was the most predictive of a child having depression in our sample.

Children from non-intact or unmarried-parent households were over twice as likely to be diagnosed with depression as their peers from intact, married-parent homes. This is comparable to children from lower-income households, who were 43 percent more likely to be diagnosed with depression compared with children from higher-income households, net of controls. Boys were 41 percent less likely to be diagnosed with depression than girls, and black and Hispanic children were 45 percent and 40 percent less likely to be diagnosed with depression than white children, respectively. In summary, family structure is more predictive of childhood depression than race, income, and sex.

Discussion and Conclusion

In 1966, the landmark Equality of Educational Opportunity report by James S. Coleman established that a student’s family structure and background remains a—if not the most—dominant factor in driving academic achievement. Despite 60 years of evidence that has often reinforced that finding, government data analyses at the federal and state levels systematically ignore family structure’s signal role in student learning. We can and must change that.

NAEP must begin reporting family-structure information it is already collecting from students. At the least, NAEP can make the broader range of data it has been compiling since 2013 more easily accessible to the public.

Tens of millions of young Americans continue to struggle with fundamental reading and math skills. It does not have to be this way. Better information can help us understand why. Using a broader range of family characteristics reveals great heterogeneity within the broad, conventionally emphasized subgroups such as race and ethnicity and family income. Knowing this information will benefit current and future generations.

The point of reporting student outcome information by family structure, of course, is not intended to be an opportunity to demonize certain family types. Rather, it is to give policymakers, educators, parents, and the general public the opportunity to understand the factors most relevant to student development. Among other things, this information could be used to help educators understand the need for lending additional assistance to children from non-intact families.

In light of this research, the universe of interventions could be expanded to help young people think differently about their future. For example, it is true that educators cannot control or change the structure of the families that students are from. But we can influence how our students think about the families they form and the series of life choices that will likely lead to their life success—and that of their children.

One way of doing this is teaching middle and high school students the “success sequence”: 97 percent of young people who graduate with at least a high school degree, enter into full-time employment, and then get married before having children are not poor as adults, and the vast majority enter the middle class or beyond. Young adults who follow the sequence are also much more likely to forge stable families of their own. A recent Institute for Family Studies report, Advancing the Path to Success: How States Can Teach the Success Sequence to Youth, gives a comprehensive discussion of the research and debate around the success sequence and lays out feasible steps for states to begin teaching it or scaling it accordingly.

What’s more, the nation is witnessing a decline in its divorce rate and an upsurge in the share of children being raised in married-parent families—in general and among lower-income and African American children in particular. The share of children living in married families reached its nadir at 64 percent in 2012 before climbing to 66 percent in 2024. Likewise, the proportion of black children being raised in a married-parent family rose from 33 percent to 39 percent over that same period. In talking about the value of the success sequence and marriage, in particular, educators and policymakers could point to these family trends to give students hope that they can achieve better family outcomes than they may have witnessed in their families of origin.

Finally, if analyses of student success indicate that poor performance is concentrated among children being raised in non-intact families, this would enable educators, policymakers, and parents to focus their attention on kids by family structure rather than by factors that may be less salient. It would also spur policymakers and parents to consider new policy and cultural efforts to augment the family stabilization pattern that is already playing out across the nation.

About the Authors

Ian V. Rowe is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on education and upward mobility, family formation, and adoption.

Brad Wilcox is a Nonresident Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he directs the Home Economics Project; the Melville Foundation Jefferson Scholars Foundation Distinguished University Professor of Sociology at the University of Virginia; and a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Family Studies.

Grant Bailey is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Family Studies.

Editor's Note: For a list of references and the Appendix, please download the full report below.


Report

The Demographic Dead End: 2026 State of Fertility Report

July 2026 | by Lyman Stone, Peter Foreshaw Brookes

July 2026

by Lyman Stone, Peter Foreshaw Brookes

In this report, we present fresh estimates of fertility for every state with available vital statistics back to 1917, and we also use results from a new survey of over 4,700 Americans to explore how American cultural norms around friendship and celebrity families may shape fertility.

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Without Action, American Fertility Will Soon Decline

 

Introduction and Executive Summary

Of the approximately 700 million people who have lived in America since 1600, and the over 690 million since 1776, about 80% were born here. We may be a nation of immigrants—but throughout our history, the true source of our growth has been in family and fertility. As our country celebrates its 250th anniversary, this report takes stock of how we got here and what the future may hold. Unfortunately, given that U.S. birth rates are now below 1.6 children per woman, the answer for how we reached our current scale and strength as a nation—families raising their own children—points to a dour conclusion: without a new birth of family life in America, the greatest days of freedom will indeed be behind us. Whether our family tree has been a branch of the tree of liberty since its earliest days as a sapling, or was grafted on in living memory, the future of liberty for all of us depends on the future of family. 

In this report, we present fresh estimates of fertility for every state with available vital statistics back to 1917, and—as a special feature in celebration of our nation’s 250th birthday—we also produce birth rate statistics for one of the nation’s original mother-colonies, Massachusetts, going back 365 years. 

Beyond this new release of data demonstrating when and where American family formation has plummeted, we also use results from a new survey of over 4,700 Americans to explore how American cultural norms around friendship and celebrity families may shape fertility. If American fertility is to recover, new cultural norms around friendship and family life may be an important element. 

Finally, informed by the available evidence on fertility and family policy, and in light of the new evidence on family culture, we outline a plan to raise American birth rates back to where they belong, and where most Americans say they want them to be: 2.4 children per woman.

Major Findings

  • New historical data show that the U.S. is now in its third historic period of extended below-replacement-rate fertility. Importantly, this current period of decline is already longer than previous declines, has fallen to lower lows, and is more widely shared around the country. The new data we present on historic American fertility stretches further back into our history at a higher level of quality and reliability than any previous vital statistics-based reconstruction of U.S. fertility.
  • U.S. population growth has abruptly slowed down in recent years, driven in large part by fertility rates collapsing to record lows. If fertility rates continue their recent decline, U.S. population will peak around 351 million and begin declining in the 2050s. If fertility rates stabilize, population will peak around 366 million and begin declining in the 2080s.
  • Desired family size has not declined nearly as much, and as a result, the gap between actual fertility rates and the number of children Americans report desiring is rising to high levels. Even as the total fertility rate has plummeted below 1.6 children per woman, surveys continue to show Americans incorrectly think they will have about 2 children each and aspire to have 2.4 children each.
  • Peer culture is a key factor associated with fertility. Having very helpful versus relatively unsupportive friends can increase desired family size for young Americans by nearly an entire child per family and can increase couple intentions to have another child by about 10 percentage points (an increase of about a third).
  • Celebrity culture shapes fertility: fans of celebrities who have more kids themselves want to have more children as well. Comparing family size among admired celebrities to individual aspirations, an admired celebrity having one extra child may increase an individual’s desired family size by as much as 0.15 children.
  • If policymakers wish to reverse the birth rate decline, they will have to consider a wide range of out-of-the-box policy proposals, including a generous baby bonus. However, this need not break the bank: generous baby bonuses worth five or six figures can be paid for with less than 1% of the federal budget; in fact, they’re cheaper than recently proposed child care or parental leave expansions. Massive increases in the generosity of family policy do not have to be fiscally reckless.
  • Beyond financial supports, policymakers and concerned private citizens should consider interventions aimed at fostering a more family-friendly culture. Based on our findings about friends and celebrities, we outline many ideas for policies that could strengthen and generate family-friendly-friendship.

The Underwhelming Expansion

"It appears the British Americans have doubled their numbers in every period of twenty-five years from their first plantation. A rapidity of population not to be paralleled in the annals of Europe! It has never been equaled since the patriarchal ages. This rapid population of the Americans arises, partly from the great accession of foreigners, but principally from the natural increase of the inhabitants. The reasons, why the Americans are more prolific than the Europeans, are, that they are less luxurious in their manner of living, and the means of supporting a family can be more easily obtained. For the last reason the Americans are induced to marry earlier in life, and consequently their families of children are more numerous.” 

– Edward Wigglesworth, 1775

In 1775, just a year before our nation’s birth, a Harvard professor named Edward Wigglesworth published a short tract called “Calculations on American Population.” It was the first true demographic projection of our young nation and documented that the American population was doubling every 20 years, primarily due to births, not immigration. From this, Wigglesworth produced a forecast of future American population. The figure below compares his forecast to the actual history of American population.

Line graph showing American population since 1600

Figure 1. U.S. Population 1600-2025, actual data from Census Bureau compared to Wigglesworth’s projection

From 1775 until the late 1800s, American population growth met or exceeded Wigglesworth’s forecast. About that forecast, he wrote, 

But to anticipate [the American] population and improvements, at the close of the twentieth century, overwhelms the mind with astonishment! At that time, should their future population be as rapid as their past, the Americans would amount to ONE THOUSAND TWO-HUNDRED AND EIGHTY MILLIONS! The continent extending back to the south-sea, affording them new plantations; and the diversity of climates and soils, inviting the introduction of all the various productions of the other quarters of the world. (emphasis original)

The infectious enthusiasm with which Wigglesworth anticipated over a billion Americans contrasts sharply with his British colleague, Thomas Malthus, who would pen his gloom-and-doom Essay on the Principle of Population a few decades later, presenting a future of starvation and suffering. The American Wigglesworth saw exponential population growth as a sign of a heroic future for our country and people, while the old-world Malthus just saw people as more mouths to feed.

Why did America undershoot expectations? Why didn’t we keep up with Wigglesworth’s forecasts? It wasn’t a lack of immigration—in fact immigration rates were higher in the 19th century than in Wigglesworth’s day. Rather, it was a decline of fertility. In the late 1600s, American fertility rates were at least 5.5 and perhaps as high as 7.5 children per woman—far above birth rates in England, which ranged from 3 to 6 children per woman. As a result, while perhaps as many as 140 million people have immigrated to the United States since 1776, at least 550 million have been born here, a ratio of 4 births per immigrant. Even in the era of mass migration from 1840 to 1925, births outnumbered immigrants by more than 4.5 to 1. In fact, it has always been the case that America is a family business of those born here—and that business likes to get some extra growth by incorporating new families through immigration, too. We are first and foremost a nation of families, and secondarily (though importantly!) a nation of immigrants.

Yet today, fertility has fallen sharply. The next page’s figure tracks American total fertility rates in the long run.

Line graph showing U.S. total fertility rate and cumulative cohort fertility in children per woman, 1825-2025

Figure 2. U.S. Total Fertility Rate and Cumulative Cohort Fertility, in children per woman, 1800-2025

Whereas in 1800, birth rates by age implied an average family size of seven children per woman, today the average young woman can expect to have fewer than 1.6 children. Annual fertility rates can be very volatile, and so we also show birth rates summed across women’s reproductive lives to estimate completed fertility. 

As can be seen, while completed fertility is less volatile, across the decades it very closely tracks the total fertility rate prevailing at the time a given birth cohort of women was around age 25. The correlation between actual births per woman near the end of a cohort’s reproductive years and the total fertility rate prevailing when that cohort turned 25 is 0.96—nearly a perfect association of the two. Where the total fertility rate goes, completed fertility tends to follow.

Of course, back in the 1800s and before, many of those children who were born did not survive. The figure below uses the same fertility data as above but removes births of children who likely died before age 15.

Line graph showing U.S. Total Fertility Rate and Cumulative Cohort Fertility, in children per woman, adjusted for child mortality rates, 1800-2025

Figure 3. U.S. Total Fertility Rate and Cumulative Cohort Fertility, in children per woman, adjusted for child mortality rates, 1800-2025

Americans had many children, it’s true—but half of them died before age 15. Rates of child mortality in England in 1800 were likely even higher, and fertility lower. So, while America’s fertility advantage was still very real, the truth is that most people in the early days of the American experiment did not raise 7 children to maturity. They typically raised between 2 and 4 children. Moreover, the U.S. has seen three separate episodes of below-replacement fertility once we also account for the true replacement rate determined by child mortality: from 1933 to 1941 during the Great Depression, from 1972 to 1989 during a period of rapidly rising contraceptive uptake and abortion rates, and from 2009 to today. If the correlation between total fertility rates and completed fertility rates continues to hold up in the future, completed family sizes will plummet to new lows.

Finally, it is worth asking what kinds of families Americans actually want. The figure on the next page compares surviving fertility rates to survey-reported family size ideals, both general ideals (i.e., answers to questions about the ideal size of a family), and personal ideals or desires (i.e., answers to questions about what individuals want for their own family lives).

As can be seen, fertility rates have tended to move in the same direction as stated fertility preferences over time: the correlation over time between general ideals and total fertility rates is 0.85, while for personal ideals and fertility rates, it is 0.94. In recent years, large numbers of surveys have been conducted, especially online, and online surveys in particular have tended to produce unusually low estimates of desired fertility. Even so, the gap between actual birth rates and survey-reported desires is the highest it has been since the early 1970s, and approaching levels not seen since the Great Depression. In other words, fertility is not just falling—it is falling further below the number of children Americans report wanting.

Line graph showing U.S. Total Fertility Rate and survey-reported family size ideals and desires, 1930-2025

Figure 4. U.S. Total Fertility Rate and survey-reported family size ideals and desires, 1930-2025

In this report, the first edition of a new annual research report at the Institute for Family Studies’ Pronatalism Initiative, we present brand-new survey data about American family culture, as well as newly digitized data about the history of American fertility, in order to venture some Wigglesworthian hypotheses about the future of the American family. More importantly, we offer some suggestions on how our country can get back on course towards the fulfillment of its historic promise of growth and abundance.

Fertility in the 50 States

Birth rates vary appreciably around the country, and in fact, not all states even share the same trends in recent years. But Massachusetts first mandated that births be registered in 1639, though compliance was sporadic until 1841, when a reinforced law was passed. Modern genealogical databases have digitized these records, and we extracted a wide range of vital statistics data from Massachusetts annual vital statistics reports after 1840. In combination, these sources can be used to infer fertility rates for Massachusetts with relatively high reliability back to 1660.

Line graph depicting Massachusetts Total Fertility Rate, 1660-2025

Figure 5. Massachusetts Total Fertility Rate, 1660-2025

Massachusetts had high fertility during the Puritan era, but fertility was already declining by 1720 and had entered a steep decline by the 1760s. It then stabilized at around three children per woman throughout the 19th century, before falling again in the 1920s and 1930s before the Baby Boom. Today, Massachusetts’ birth rate is around 1.35 children per woman—one of the lowest in the nation, and on par with rates observed in Europe. Massachusetts is far from the only state with a unique trend in fertility. The figure below shows trends for states which have, historically, had some of the highest birth rates.

Line graph showing Total fertility rates for selected high-fertility states, 1917-2025

Figure 6. Total fertility rates for selected high-fertility states, 1917-2025

As can be seen, several western states have historically had the highest birth rates, especially Utah, Idaho, Alaska, and South Dakota. Mississippi and New Mexico have also historically had high birth rates, though, today, New Mexico has below-average birth rates, as Hispanic fertility rates have fallen rapidly. High fertility in the frontier states has long been an area of academic research. Recent research suggests that land availability for farmers may be part of the reason for this, but high marriage rates may be even more important.

Line graph showing Total fertility rates for selected low-fertility states, 1917-2025

Figure 7. Total fertility rates for selected low-fertility states, 1917-2025

The set of states with very low birth rates is perhaps unsurprising: eastern, urbanized states.

The District of Columbia has almost always had a very low total fertility rate. But even less totally urbanized states like Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts seem to have had low birth rates for a very long time. Even before accounting for child mortality, New York state had below-replacement-rate fertility in 1929, before the stock market crash that set off the Great Depression. The two figures above also clearly show that American fertility was declining from 1917 onwards, which suggests the Great Depression may have intensified fertility decline but did not cause it. Whereas some states have persistently had relatively low or high fertility, other states have seen major changes, as shown in the next figure.

Line graph with Total fertility rates for selected falling-fertility states, 1917-2025

Figure 8. Total fertility rates for selected falling-fertility states, 1917-2025

The states in the figure above all had relatively high birth rates, vs. the national average, from 1980 to 2000—but today are all below the national average. Thus, whereas California was not a low fertility state in the latter 20th century, it is today, with a fertility rate of just 1.42 children per woman in 2025. Likewise, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico have seen their total fertility rates plunge. Interestingly, so have Oregon and Illinois, states with somewhat smaller Hispanic populations. In those states, fertility rates are especially low in large urban areas.

Line graph of Total fertility rates for selected less-declining-fertility states, 1917-2025

Figure 9. Total fertility rates for selected less-declining-fertility states, 1917-2025

Then there are, of course, states where fertility rates have seen a less negative trend, as in the figure on the prior page. North Dakota has famously seen its fertility rates move in a more positive direction than national averages, presumably due to the fracking boom fueling high incomes, high male employment, and ultimately higher marriage rates. Less remarked upon is how states like Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee have largely bucked the trend of rapidly falling fertility and kept their fertility rates comparatively stable.

Finally, it is worth assessing American regions by their contemporary rates to get a sense of the overall geography of American family. The figure below shows the map of total fertility rates in 2025.

Map showing Total fertility rate by state, 2025

Figure 10. Total fertility rate by state, 2025

Around the country, just one state still has fertility rates high enough to be near or at the long-run population-stability level: South Dakota. Every other state is below, and some are far below. Along the West Coast, in New England, in Illinois, and in Florida, fertility rates are very low. Only in the upper South and the Great Plains does some vestige of the old American family culture still remain for reproductive-age people. But what of women who are no longer reproductive age? How does completed fertility vary around the country? Technically, women might continue having children into their 50s—but in practice, over 90% of births for recent cohorts have occurred by age 40. Thus, cumulative fertility rates experienced by women who were 40 in 2025 can give us a very strong sense of where in the nation small, completed family sizes might already be emerging. Total fertility rates are currently much lower than cohort fertility rates, which generally implies that future cohort fertility rates are likely to decline vs. present cohort fertility rates.

Map of Cumulative cohort fertility rate by state for the cohort aged 40 in 2025

Figure 11. Cumulative cohort fertility rate by state for the cohort aged 40 in 2025

For women who are in their early 40s today, in much of the middle of the country and the South, actual fertility is near or just above replacement rates. But in the Northeast, and to some extent the West Coast, near-completed fertility rates really are very low. For women who turned 40 in 2025, cumulative Massachusetts fertility rates point to a completed family size of just 1.6 children per woman. Based on U.N. data, that’s lower than completed fertility for similar cohorts in over 200 of the 237 countries for which data exists. This low fertility rate is on par with many Eastern European countries. Eastern European women born in the mid-1980s came of age during the fertility collapse of the 1990s and 2000s after the fall of Communism. Apparently, family life in Massachusetts is about as successful as family life just after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Thus, the state of American fertility can be summed up in simple terms: not good. A nation once propelled to unprecedented heights of power by its rapid demographic expansion now rests at a fraction of its historically anticipated population because birth rates have crashed. While immigration has continued, falling fertility rates are a global phenomenon and such skilled migrants as do exist will be in demand by many countries. Reliance on migration for population growth is not a credible strategy in the long run. If current trends continue, American population may peak within the next few decades and then enter interminable decline, as we will lay out in greater detail below.

The State of Family Culture Today

In each annual State of Fertility report, we will present new data on cultural and social forces shaping American fertility. In this one, we ask a simple question: how is American friendship shaping American fertility? A growing body of research has suggested that the digital revolution may be reshaping American fertility as iPhones and social media and pornography replace social life, spread new ideas, and alter the landscape of American relationships. 

The 2026 State of Family Culture Survey asked a range of new questions of Americans ages 18 to 50 and specifically explored how their social influences and friendships shape their fertility behaviors. We asked respondents how many children their three best friends had (excluding family members and romantic partners), as well as the sibling with which they have the closest relationship (if they have any siblings). This allows us to estimate the average parity of the respondent’s close social ties: up to three friends and a close sibling. Moreover, we then asked respondents how their social ties would react if they had another child. They could select from four different “positive” options (i.e., “My friends would offer to help me with my new baby,” or “My friends would cook meals for me after the baby was born”) and from four different “negative” options (i.e., “My friends would worry about my career,” or “My friends would not invite me to socialize as much”). We assessed how these and a few other social variables shaped desired family size (the number of children respondents said they’d be happiest having), as well as intentions to have any more children conditional on not yet having reached desired family size. In other words, we measured how friendship dynamics shape overall family size desires, and then, separately among respondents who hadn’t yet achieved their desires, how friendship dynamics shape their concrete intentions to achieve their goals.

Bar graph showing Children desired among under-30s and share intending children among couples interested in having more children, by religious attendance, children among social ties, and supportiveness of friends

Figure 12. Children desired among under-30s and share intending children among couples interested in having more children, by religious attendance, children among social ties, and supportiveness of friends

It is well known that religiosity is closely related to fertility desires and outcomes. Indeed, as can be seen in the figure above, religious attendance predicts higher desired family size among Americans under 30 (~2 children for never-attenders at the mean of control variables, vs. 2.7 for others), and also predicts higher intentions to make progress towards desired fertility (50% for regular attenders at the mean of control variables, vs. under 40% for others).

But the associational effect of helpful friends is similar to or larger than the effect of religion. Since the estimates shown are from a model including all presented variables, we can be fairly confident that the linkage between helpful friends and fertility is separate from the effect of religion: it’s not just that religious people have more helpful friends.

For Americans under 30 with the bottom 10% least-helpful friends (i.e. those scoring -2 or less), desired family size is around 1.7 children per respondent. For those with the top 10% most helpful friends, it’s around 2.8 children—helpful friends are associated with an entire extra child in desired family size. When it comes to intentions to have more kids among couples who ideally would like more, there are similar effects: only 20-30% of those with unhelpful friends intend to have more children, vs. 40-50% of those with the most helpful friends.

Indeed, passive social influences from peers matter, too: simply having more friends with kids is associated with desiring more children. Again, while we can’t rule out reverse-causality (people who want kids may seek out friends with kids), most people form their friendships well before they start having kids, and our results are similar if we only include sibling child numbers. Our results are also unchanged if we include controls for the number of siblings respondents had (i.e. family culture of origin) and are also unchanged if we exclude nonreligious individuals (i.e. a possible source of confounding selection), or if we limit it to just childless respondents under 30. Moreover, we find that the average family size of peers has twice as much of an effect on an individual’s family size desires as their number of siblings in childhood. 

Other questions we asked about parent-child relationships and extended family ties had little or no association with fertility desires. For example, we find no association at all between an individual’s number of cousins and their family size desires: big families do not intrinsically create kids who grow up to have big families. Closeness to extended family, and even stronger relationships with parents, are not strongly associated with differences in family size desires. Rather, fertility desires are more about peer culture than family culture.

Another topic we surveyed also points to the importance of peer and popular culture: publicly admired figures. We asked every respondent to report a public figure whom they most admired and why. We then collated these reports and identified how many children each figure was publicly known to have based on public celebrity or Wikipedia pages. We find that each additional child born to an admired public figure predicts higher desired family size for the survey respondent. The effect is about as big as we find for an individual’s number of siblings, suggesting mere celebrity fandom is almost as important as origin family size. Notably, these effects are larger for women and more statistically credible. 

Celebrity family sizes are about as influential for family size desires as the number of siblings. Women in particular appear to have family desires meaningfully associated with the family sizes of celebrities they admire, which again suggests that popular, peer, and public culture shape family size desires at least as much as family of origin or religion.

Notably, having lots of peers with kids does not predict actual intentions to have kids among couples whose ideals exceeded their current parity (i.e. those who might be open to intending more kids). An admired celebrity’s number of children also has only a small and statistically weak association with actual intentions. 

Figure showing Children desired among under-30s, by sex and number of children of most admired public figure

Figure 13. Children desired among under-30s, by sex and number of children of most admired public figure

To shape behavioral intentions, it is not enough to passively have friends with kids or to admire an influencer with kids—prospective parents need peers who are genuinely helpful and supportive, not just those who demonstrate big families. Demonstrative exposure to family life shapes aspirations, and those aspirations might have various knock-on-effects, but behavioral intentions among individuals whose aspirations exceed their current family size require more than just a pro-family public culture. They require peers who show up to change diapers. Moreover, given the apparently large role of social ties in shaping fertility behaviors, the idea that the digital revolution might be reducing American and global birth rates by reducing the extent to which Americans are exposed to family life is entirely plausible.

The Future of the American Family

Given what we have shown thus far about American fertility trends, and given the range of cultural norms shaping fertility, we next consider the possible range of futures for American demography. 

To start with, it must be noted that existing population forecasts, such as those produced by the U.N. Population Division, the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security Trustees, the Office of Management and Budget, or even the Census Bureau, are often too cautious and uncreative. These forecasting bodies adopt two sets of unrealistic assumptions. 

First, they tend to adopt a very standard, yet unjustified, approach to forecasting net migration: a fixed, flat future net migration rate. This assumption itself is unjustified for at least two reasons. First, under President Trump, net migration has already fallen to near-zero rates, and this is likely to continue through his presidency—and he is unlikely to be the last restrictionist president of the 21st century. Second, in the very long run, immigration is very likely to decline due to declining global birth rates and ongoing changes in immigration policies. Falling fertility means there will be fewer excess young people looking to emigrate from their homes, and more countries competing to get them as immigrants, and so the default assumption should be that any given country’s immigration rate will tend to decline over the 21st century. Our assumption about migration is simple: net migration remains only a few hundred thousand people per year during the Trump Administration, then rises through the mid-21st century to around 1.5 million, then gradually declines until it is just a few hundred thousand again by 2100.

The second unrealistic assumption in most public forecasts relates to fertility. Other forecasters tend to assume various degrees of fertility recovery in the long run (except the latest CBO forecasts, which are more realistic), even though no such recovery is guaranteed. 

To rectify these issues, we produce three new population projections using a cohort-component model of the same type that other statistical bodies would use, except that we assume that over the next century, immigration cannot remain permanently at a high positive level, and we model different fertility trajectories. Our fertility assumptions (Continuation, Recovery, or Revival) for these scenarios vs. public projections are shown below.

Figure showing Historic and projected future fertility, 1915-2100, by source of projection

Figure 14. Historic and projected future fertility, 1915-2100, by source of projection

The Social Security Trust Fund (OASDI) does consider a scenario where fertility is stagnant at 1.6, but they do not even countenance the possibility that fertility might continue to decline. The base scenario for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid budget planning assumes a rapid fertility increase similar to what we call our “Revival” scenario. On the other hand, the UN and the Census Bureau more-or-less straight-line birth rates at recent levels, while CBO, almost alone among the forecasters, offers a plausible scenario where fertility falls, then recovers a bit as women delaying fertility rush to make it up. CBO’s scenario is similar to our “Recovery” scenario—but no forecaster has had the political capital and resolve to actually tell the American people what will happen if fertility keeps falling. 

We do so here. In the next figure, we show what will happen to American population if, as in our “Continuation” scenario, fertility drops to 1.35 by 2050 and 1.15 by 2095; or, at the other extreme in our “Revival” scenario, what will happen if fertility rises to 2 by 2050 and 2.1 by 2060.

If something like what CBO expects, or what we term a “Recovery” scenario occurs, then population growth will continue at a low level until the 2080s. The U.S. may continue to barely eke out a slow pace of growth well into the 21st century. Growth would be far lower than it has been for most of our history. Edward Wigglesworth’s ghost would be infinitely disappointed in us, but the American experiment would not go into reverse for some time yet.

 Figure showing Historic and projected future population, 1940-2100, by source of projection

Figure 15. Historic and projected future population, 1940-2100, by source of projection

But if current trends in fertility rates continue and if births keep getting postponed later and later, then population will peak in the mid-2050s and then go into relatively rapid decline. In this scenario, the latter 21st century will see America in demographic—and therefore economic and political—retreat.

That’s the bad news. But the good news is that there are ways to avoid this outcome, and to make the Recovery scenario more likely—perhaps even to achieve the trends we list as a Revival, i.e. a return to replacement-rate fertility or better. 

How To Restore American Family Growth

There are five major reforms which, in combination, could restore the fortunes of American fertility. Beyond these five major reforms, we describe three key cultural domains where, if Americans want to see population revival, the culture will need to change.

Pronatal Policies

Reform 1: American Birthday Accounts

President Trump launched a small savings account seeded with $1,000 to give emerging adults a leg up in his “Trump Accounts,” passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The Heritage Foundation has proposed a larger investment intended to mature upon marriage. These ideas are good starts. But the most complete proposal in this regard is a recent proposal in Finland called Vauvasampo. Adapted for the American case, this proposal is simple: every child born as a U.S. citizen in 2026 or any future year would have some amount of money, perhaps $15,000, invested in their name, which we call “American Birthday Accounts,” in honor of our 250th year of independence. 

Beneficiaries could not touch these accounts until they have a child; that is, until they are the legal and custodial parent of a related child born in the United States or under U.S. jurisdiction abroad, and coresiding with that child or else deployed on U.S. government business. At the first birth (or, if preferable to avoid risks of early child abandonment, at the child’s 1st birthday, if still coresident and full custodial), they would gain access to, say, 50% of their account’s value, and the residual 50% would continue growing. At the second birth, 75% of the fund’s remaining value at that time could be claimed. At a third birth, all remaining funds can be claimed. Assuming funds are invested in something like a mutual fund, a $15,000 investment could easily lead to a married couple receiving a baby bonus worth $100,000 for a first birth, with smaller additional payments for subsequent births. Recipients could be permitted to cash out their benefit over multiple years if they preferred, and any new funds gained through subsequent births would be added to this continuing fund. 

This baby bonus money could be counted as income, which means that part of its cost would be directly recouped through interactions with means tested programs and income taxes: beneficiary families at both very low and very high incomes would receive smaller after-tax-and-benefit returns. All families of any income would be eligible, but in practice the real benefits would be most generous for middle-income married families, subsidizing fertility the most for working- and middle-class families. Because only children born in the U.S. would be eligible for the investment, concerns about subsidies for children of immigrants would also be alleviated: it would be essentially a subsidy only for U.S.-born individuals to have their own children. Because married couples would be eligible for each parent’s baby bonus, the benefit would effectively double for married couples. To avoid creating subsidies for teen pregnancy, fund accessibility could be set aside until parents reach an appropriate age (perhaps 21 for a first birth, and a slightly higher age for subsequent births). 

Bang-for-buck, American Birthday Accounts are the single best way to get more babies born in stable families than almost any other policy imaginable. In the long run, since many individuals will have fewer than 3 children (and many will be childless, thus leaving many funds unclaimed), those unused funds can be reinvested in the program to create a rolling national family trust fund, which would render the program zero-cost to taxpayers after the first eligible generation had completed their childbearing. Even without that reinvestment, the budgetary cost for an investment of $15,000 to $20,000 per child would be between $45 and $80 billion per year. For comparison, U.S. public schools spent just under $19,000 per year per student in 2021, so this program amounts to the public investing just one year of schooling worth of public resources into children’s future family life. 

Assuming American fertility responds to cash incentives the way fertility has responded to cash incentives that we studied in other countries, these American Birthday Accounts would likely boost fertility by between 20 and 40% for the cohorts eligible to receive the benefit. If reproductive-age Americans today already had such accounts, birth rates would be somewhere between 1.9 and 2.2 children per woman—essentially at replacement rate.

Reform 2: Child Caregiver Credits

When a family has a child, they face new expenses. One parent may also stay home from work. The result is that after having kids, families save less. Childcare, diapers, and work disruptions cause parents to approach retirement with fewer resources than they should have had based on their human capital. In dozens of countries around the world, this problem has been addressed through care credits. These credits have a simple principle: if a person has a child under the age of 5 at home, for the purposes of future Social Security benefit calculations, they should be “credited” as if they were still working at their income levels 1-3 years before birth, adjusted for inflation. This gives stay-at-home parents (especially mothers) slightly better retirement benefits, reduces the harms that women especially face from employment disruptions, and helps recognize that parents are doing the real work of keeping Social Security solvent by raising future payers. 

While we cannot estimate exactly what effect this change would have on fertility, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that a four-year care credit of this sort could plausibly boost the Social Security benefit by 1% to 3% for a mom who took five years off work to have two children. For a mom who took 15 years off to have four children, care credits might boost her social security benefits by 5-10 percent. Converting these benefits to their net present value at time of childbearing, and using that to infer fertility impacts, only implies a fertility increase of perhaps 1% or 2%, but ensuring basic fairness for parents is a benefit in its own right.

Reform 3: End Marriage Penalties 

Nearly every means-tested program in America creates marriage penalties one way or another, and this discourages family formation. Policymakers must establish a simple principle: getting married should never cause anybody to lose a benefit. In practice, this amounts to suggesting that the U.S. should adopt fully individualized tax and welfare programs. Sweden, Canada, and the U.K. have all changed from joint-filing to individual-filing systems in the past, and in all three cases, fertility rose sharply afterwards. 

The reason is simple: household-filing and household-benefit systems have a strong tendency to punish marriage for working-class people. If switching to an individual system is a bridge too far, policymakers should simply go through existing tax and benefit programs, line-by-line, and remove marriage penalties, especially in Section 8 housing benefits, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, WIC and SNAP nutrition programs, the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit, interest deductions for mortgages and student loans, FHA loan eligibility rules, and the Earned Income Tax Credit. 

We are unable to provide a specific effect estimate for how marriage penalty elimination might influence fertility, since the academic literature does not currently contain standardized effect estimates for either how marriage causally shapes fertility, nor how marriage penalties causally influence marriage. Nonetheless, we believe that these effects could be substantial. In Sweden, Canada, and the U.K., a switch to individualized tax systems was associated with about 0.05-0.15 more children born per woman.

Reform 4: Build Family Housing Now 

American young people face a housing crisis. There has been zero increase in residential square footage per capita in 25 years according to federal data. New houses are shifting heavily towards small apartments. Home prices have skyrocketed to many multiples of young adult incomes. America must build more family-suitable houses. 

The federal government can encourage this by adopting an extremely simple program: allocate municipalities and states alike a fixed sum per bedroom of housing completed each year. A moderate portion of existing block grant funds could be repurposed and reallocated on the basis of bedrooms being constructed, justified by the simple notion that places building more housing and thus anticipating more population growth really do need and deserve more block grant funding to prepare for a more populous future. Places refusing to build housing can make do with the federal funding they currently have. 

Reform 5: Institute Family-Impact Budgeting

At the structural level, Congress and state legislatures must begin to undertake “family budgeting.” Legislators must ask not only how a bill might impact revenues and spending, but how it will impact marriage and fertility. Every bill that receives a cost score should also be scored for how it impacts incentives to marry and have children, giving legislators a constant reminder that their choices have consequences for the physical survival of the nation, not only of its financial accounts.

In combination, we believe instituting these reforms could raise U.S. birth rates to at least 2.1 children per woman and perhaps as high as 2.4 children per woman if marriage effects prove to be substantial.

Family-Friendly Cultural Norms

Norm 1: Enlist Celebrity Culture

Our survey results imply that enlisting celebrities to promote American family life may work—celebrity fertility really is associated with the fertility of fans. Governments interested in boosting fertility should consider enlisting the support of celebrities popular in their jurisdictions, or perhaps even finding a way to obliquely encourage those celebrities to marry and have more children. 

While we would not endorse or recommend such a policy, it is empirically possible that paying Taylor Swift a billion dollars to have children might produce more children in society than spending the same money on child tax credits, if her choice sways her wide fanbase. More broadly, to the extent that social and cultural elites set the tone for family life, large tax breaks for parenthood at high incomes (of the sort which France implemented through its family quotient system) might stimulate elite fertility, thus, creating downstream cultural spillovers to fans and followers. 

Outside of government, it would be worthwhile for churches and community actors to consider the social role of parents and families: are they nudged into the back pew, their children sequestered in Sunday school where they can’t bother anyone? Or are parents full participants in community or church leadership—with their children at their side?

Norm 2: Encourage Supportive Friendship

Helpful friends make a difference. The first thing governments can do to support more supportive friendship is to ensure that informal care arrangements are not punished. Liability and negligence laws and enforcement norms should not punish parents for leaving children with friends. Safe-harbor and Good Samaritan-style liability protections, as well as “free range parenting” laws may be advisable.

More broadly, governments could consider creating “civil godparents,” that is, legally recognized roles for specifically designated friends or kin of parents, giving those friends broader in loco parentis rights to care for children. 

Likewise, hospitals could modify antenatal and postpartum care such that nurses making postpartum visits encourage new parents to call friends to come visit the hospital, or prenatal care includes efforts to help expecting parents produce a list of friends they can call to help. This method of “legitimating the request” may help parents overcome embarrassment to ask for help. 

Beyond this, governments often confer status through public campaigns—blood donation and organ donation is almost entirely motivated by appeals to conscience and moral status. Governments could emulate these campaigns for care donation: watching your friend’s kids. This approach would effectively confer honor and status on the individuals who do the helping. 

Further, local municipalities could experiment with subsidies and liability protections for small, designated play areas in coffee shops, grocery stores, and restaurants, where parents can socialize amid productivity. 

While the government cannot mandate supportive friends, it can create conditions where parents and their friends get helpful nudges into helpful behaviors. Needless to say, the kind of supportive friendship described here can only be nudged by government—but they can be supported by book clubs, mom groups, churches, running clubs, pick-up basketball leagues, and other social groups. They can celebrate one another’s family additions, create schedules for babysitting, drop off meals or DoorDash gift cards, and help each other in any number of ways.

Norm 3: Promote Real-Life Socializing

Simply having more friends with kids matters for fertility, but a key driver of having more friends with kids is simply having more friends. Indeed, the average number of children in an individual’s social circle is strongly correlated with their average number of close friends: individuals under 30 with fewer than 4 close friends average around 0.7 children per friend; whereas those with 5 or more average around 1-1.3. And yet, the number of close friends Americans have is in persistent decline. Moreover, Americans are spending less and less time together with their friends. These changes are part and parcel of a long-term decline in American social lives. Reversing this decline must be a central part of any project of cultural change. 

Schools can certainly restrict mobile devices during school hours and at extracurriculars as one step, and should also consider expanding recess time. Limiting how many assignments require devices, reducing solo-homework assignments, and instead assigning group projects requiring in-person collaboration, may also be a useful avenue. 

Expanded public funding for public sports and athletics fields alongside higher usage fees charged to pay-to-play teams, alongside reduced liability for volunteer coaching and informal play, could help restore neighborhood sports and reduce the all-consuming professionalization of travel sports. 

Policymakers should also at least consider more creative options: reinstituting Blue Laws requiring business closures on Sundays might help create more in-person community, for example. And what about “Digital Blue Laws”—laws which impede access to non-essential digital services on certain days or at certain hours? Could such laws be implemented? One possible vehicle might be to charge excise taxes on data usage on Sundays, or excise taxes on digital advertising expenditures on Sundays, essentially encouraging platforms to nudge users offline at those times. 

Laws around existing physical spaces could be tweaked as well—would higher taxes on alcohol sold for home consumption alongside lower taxes on alcohol sold in bars and restaurants lead to more spontaneous friendships? Would raising taxes on restaurant delivery while reducing taxes for in-restaurant dining create new communities? Could expanding the supply of quality park shelters and other bookable spaces be part of a broad “in-person friendship agenda?” 

The exact pathway to restoring American friendship is not clear, but policymakers should consider bold experiments. 

Conclusion

American population growth has already slowed dramatically and is likely to grind to a halt or even go into reverse in the relatively near future. Some current workers may see population decline before they reach retirement, if current trends continue. This is a serious problem and is not the family future most Americans desire. 

Unfortunately, tackling this decline is not just a problem of fixing one or two small issues—fertility is shaped by innumerable factors, including many cultural and social norms governments may struggle to change. Nonetheless, if policymakers will consider policy changes equal in magnitude to the size of the problem we face, Americans need not have anything to fear. Demographic decline is a choice, one that our nation’s leaders can choose to avoid, if they will invest in the future of family. Perhaps, with luck, at our 350th anniversary, we might finally reach Wigglesworth’s billion. 

Editor's Note: For Data and Methods, author information, and references, please download the full report below.


Brief

The Roots of Working-Class Men's Discontent

June 2026 | by Grant Martsolf, Grant Bailey

June 2026

by Grant Martsolf, Grant Bailey

Using data from the Global Flourishing Study, we find that childhood family conditions—particularly the relationship between father and son—provide a key explanation for why so many young, working-class men are struggling.

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Fathers and Hope

Introduction

Men in America are not 'alright.' Whether it is men falling behind in the job market, not attending college, or never leaving their childhood home, American men are clearly in trouble.

But not all men have been equally hit. Working-class men have especially faced the brunt of the “happiness recession.”

Experts from all leanings have provided explanations for why men, especially blue-collar men, are doing so poorly. Economists point to data that show how the working class has been left behind. Journalists suggest that insidious ideologies among the less educated share the blame. And some influencers argue that it’s the crisis in masculinity that explains male discontent. But woefully missing from this conversation is a factor hidden in plain sight: the family. 

In a new IFS research brief, we look at the latest data from the Global Flourishing Study, a survey with over 200,000 participants in 22 countries, to explore how family conditions in childhood explain the well-being gap between college-educated and working-class men in adulthood (see the Appendix for the Data and Methods section). Focusing on men in the United States, we find that childhood family conditions—particularly the relationship between father and son—provide a key explanation for why so many working-class men are struggling. The family variables we look at do not completely explain the gap between blue-collar and college-educated men, but they spotlight an important factor on the map: family structure matters for working-class men.

Working-Class Men Are Struggling

The well-being gap between working-class and college-educated men is panning out in nearly every well-being metric measured by sociologists and economists. 

Take just one example. Data from the General Social Survey (GSS) show that the share of men ages 25 to 44 who are “not too happy” has risen from 11% in the 1980s to 24% in the most recent years. Both college-educated and working-class men have seen declines in happiness. But men without a bachelor’s degree fare far worse, with 27% reporting they are “not too happy,” compared to 17% of college-educated men.

Bar chart showing unhappiness among U.S. men ages 25 to 44 by education

Figure 1: Unhappiness among men by education 

The class disparity in happiness is nothing new. The GSS data reveal that college-educated men were happier than their less-educated peers going back to the 1980s. And while the GSS shows somewhat steady levels of happiness from the 1980s through the 2000s, other well-being metrics suggest rising discontent in earlier decades. Mortality data, for instance, shows a steady and concerning rise in what researchers call “deaths of despair”—fatalities attributable to drug overdoses, suicide, and alcoholism. The rise in “deaths of despair” has been especially dramatic among white working-class men. Our analysis of death records and population estimates finds that the suicide rate per 100,000 white non-Hispanic men ages 25 to 44 has risen from 31 in 1992 to 54 in 2023, a shocking 71% increase over just three decades.

Line chart showing crude suicide rate among non-Hispanic white men by education

Figure 2: Crude suicide rate among non-Hispanic white men by education 

The roots of this crisis are partly economic. The collapse of manufacturing in the early-to-mid 1980s eliminated millions of stable, well-paying jobs that had long anchored working-class communities. Men without college degrees were hit hardest. Since 1970, their real wages have declined relative to their college-educated peers, and their labor force participation has fallen sharply—a trend that shows no sign of reversing.

But while the economy plays a role in the rise of working-class male despair, many economists miss a key factor: the family. In a recent Institute for Family Studies report, we documented the troubling collapse in family formation among men without college degrees. In 1980, men in their prime working years were roughly equally likely to be married and living at home with children, regardless of educational attainment. Since then, marriage rates have declined for all men, but the drop among non-college-educated men has been far steeper. The share of working-class men ages 25 to 44 who are married fell from 73% to 42% from 1980 to 2025, according to the Current Population Survey. The share of younger working-class men who are married with children at home fell from 61% to just 30 percent. This rising group of untethered men are disconnected from the stabilizing institutions of marriage and fatherhood that research consistently links to better health, purpose, and longevity.

This not only matters for the men themselves, but for the children they are raising in stable or unstable homes. We know that family of origin has a profound impact on well-being across the lifespan. Childhood experiences, particularly those within the home, shape how people assess the quality of their lives and whether they believe their futures hold promise. Working-class communities have now endured nearly 45 years of declining marriage rates and family instability, and the consequences are compounding across generations.

In this Research Brief, we draw on data from the first wave of the Global Flourishing Study (GFS), a large-scale multinational survey fielded in 2023, restricting our analytic sample to U.S. male respondents ages 25 and older (n = 18,178). We define working-class men as those without a bachelor's degree and examine three well-being outcomes—hope, sense of worthwhileness, and purpose—using linear regression models that control for age, race, rurality, and nativity. We then employ a coefficient attenuation framework to assess the extent to which the well-being gap among young working-class men (ages 25–44) is explained by childhood experiences, including parental marriage, quality of relationships with mothers and fathers, perceived parental love, and parental religious attendance. 

In plain terms, this approach asks how much of the well-being gap between working-class and college-educated men shrinks once we account for differences in their childhood family experiences. You can read more about the methods in the Appendix. 

Differences in Well-Being by Class Are Pronounced Among Young Men

Consistent with other studies, we find that working-class men report lower levels of well-being than college-educated men. Specifically, on a 10-point scale, they report .21 lower scores on “hope,” .52 lower scores on “life worthwhile,” and .44 lower scores on “purpose.” These differences are relatively small-to-moderate in magnitude, but even small effect sizes can carry practical significance when examining population-level disparities in well-being.1

Bar chart showing mean self-reported scores on well-being for men by education 

Figure 3: Mean self-reported scores on well-being for men by education 

These overall variations, however, mask meaningful variation by age and class. As shown in Figure 4, two patterns emerge: (1) well-being scores increase with age, and (2) class differences in well-being are substantially attenuated at older ages. As a result, young working-class men report the lowest scores across all three scales. When comparing young working-class men to older men, effect sizes are quite large; when compared to their same-age college-educated peers, the effect sizes are moderate. Among men ages 45 and older, working-class and college-educated men report relatively similar well-being scores.

Bar chart showing mean self-reported scores on well-being for men by age and education

Figure 4: Mean self-reported scores on well-being for men by age and education

Class Differences in Well Being: Family Structure and Fathers

Class differences in well-being among younger men are partially explained by family experiences, especially the relationship with the father.

We find that young-working class men ages 25 to 44 are much less likely than their college-educated counterparts to have positive family experiences. These men score lower on all variables, and the differences are statistically significant for every variable. 

Bar chart showing childhood experience prevalence among young men by education

Figure 5: Childhood experience prevalence among young men by education

Compared to college-educated men, working-class men are 17 percentage points less likely to have grown up with married parents, 11 percentage points less likely to have had a good relationship with their father, and 10 percentage points less likely to have felt loved by their father. 

Working-class men are also less likely to have had a good relationship with their mother, felt loved by their mother, or had church-attending parents. Such family variables demonstrate consistent, statistically significant correlations with the well-being outcomes—meaning that better childhood family conditions significantly predict later-life well-being. Previous studies suggest that relationships of this kind are at least partially causal. 

Bar chart showing difference in childhood experience prevalence among men by education

Figure 6: Difference in childhood experience prevalence among men by education

Next, we focus on men ages 25–44 and examine differences in outcomes across the various family-related variables described in the methods section (see Appendix). The “baseline model” coefficient represents the relationship between the well-being outcome of interest and class. The subsequent variables represent the relationship between well-being and class after accounting for the family variables. 

Bar chart showing attenuation of class differences in well-being among young men using childhood experiences

Figure 7: Attenuation of class differences in well-being among young men using childhood experiences

We find that differences in well-being between college-educated and younger working-class men are significantly explained jointly by the family variables, ranging from 18% to 33 percent. Hope is the most significant factor explained by the family variables, whereas assessments of life as worthwhile and a sense of purpose are explained less by family variables. 

Across all models, relationship with the father is the most significant explanatory variable of the association between class and the outcomes of interest. It explains nearly one-third of the difference in hope between college-educated and working-class young men. In sum, feelings of hope for men in young adulthood and into middle age are connected to childhood family conditions, with the father-son relationship being particularly salient.

Bar chart showing attenuation of differences in hope across classes using childhood experiences

Figure 8: Attenuation of differences in hope across classes using childhood experiences

Discussion

In this research brief, we find statistically significant differences in well-being outcomes by class, though it is worth noting that effect sizes in the overall models are small. While these differences are real and merit serious attention, care should be taken not to overstate the plight of working-class men as a whole.

That said, meaningful differences do emerge when we stratify by age. Younger working-class men are considerably less hopeful than their older counterparts. While it is impossible to cleanly distinguish age from cohort effects with the data available, it seems plausible that many of these younger men will grow more hopeful as they move through adulthood and accumulate the stabilizing resources—relationships, careers, community—that tend to come with time. What is clear, however, is that the class gap in well-being is pronounced among younger men in a way that it simply is not among older men. Young working-class men rate their well-being substantially lower than young college-educated men across the outcomes we examine, and this disparity deserves to be taken seriously.

To make sense of these findings, it is essential to situate them within a broader structural context. Over the past four decades, family life in working-class communities has undergone significant and well-documented erosion. Rates of family instability, father absence, and household economic stress have risen sharply in these communities relative to their college-educated counterparts. It is against this backdrop that our results take on their full meaning. Across every family-related variable in the dataset, young working-class men report consistently lower scores than young college-educated men. These differences reflect accumulated disadvantages in the family environments in which these men were raised.

Critically, these lower family variable scores partially explain the relationship between class and well-being, helping to clarify why young working-class men fare worse on the outcomes we examine. The largest and most consistent attenuation effect is observed for hope. The seeds of hope are likely planted early in life, nurtured within the family environment. For these young men, the relationship with their father emerges as arguably the single most influential factor shaping their sense of hope. A similar pattern holds for assessments of life being worthwhile and for a sense of purpose, though the attenuation is somewhat less pronounced for these outcomes. Taken together, the findings suggest that family of origin—and the father relationship in particular —plays an important role in transmitting, or in failing to transmit, the psychological foundations of a hopeful and meaningful life.

Conclusion

The well-being struggles of young working-class men are real, consequential, and—as this analysis shows—at least partly rooted in childhood family experience. While economic forces have undeniably shaped the landscape of working-class life, the research points to something closer to home, namely the relationships with parents. The father-son relationship in particular stands out as a powerful driver of whether young men grow up with hope, purpose, and a sense that their lives matter. 

Reversing the tide of working-class male discontent will require honest engagement with this reality. Stronger family stability, father involvement, and support of the relational foundations of childhood are not peripheral concerns. They are central to any serious effort to help the men being left behind.

Note: Download the full research brief for Data and Methods information.


1.  We calculated Cohen's d, a standardized measure of effect size that expresses the mean difference between groups relative to the pooled standard deviation. Effect sizes ranged from .10 to .28, which are generally considered small-to-moderate in magnitude by conventional benchmarks.

 


Brief

The Ideological Fertility Divide

June 2026 | by Graham Flynn, Isaiah Harold, Zoe Pritts, Josh Steiner, Wade Watkins, Timothy W. Taylor, Ken Burchfiel

June 2026

by Graham Flynn, Isaiah Harold, Zoe Pritts, Josh Steiner, Wade Watkins, Timothy W. Taylor, Ken Burchfiel

This IFS and Verity research brief finds that liberals are more likely to cite certain anxieties related to fertility decisions relative to conservatives.

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Liberals More Likely to Hold Beliefs Linked to Fewer Kids

Executive Summary

Birthrates have been declining precipitously throughout the United States since the Great Recession and more broadly since the postwar Baby Boom. Within this broad trend, a fertility "gap" has emerged between the American left and right. This report, based on survey results from a sample of over 7,000 Americans ages 18-54, analyzes ideological differences1 in anxieties related to parenting and self-perceived competence. To a limited extent, this report finds that liberals are more likely to cite certain anxieties related to fertility decisions relative to conservatives. For each of our sections, we find that the differing survey responses account for significant differences in fertility outcomes. 

Here are our major findings:

  • Liberals have fewer children than conservatives. Conservative respondents report 1.40 children compared to 1.09 for liberals. Similarly, 51% of liberals report zero children compared to 40% for conservatives. Both of these differences are statistically significant.
     
  • Parenting concerns are more prevalent among liberals than conservatives. For example, 18% of liberals are unsure whether they would be a good parent, compared to only 9% of conservatives. Similarly, whereas 36% of liberals view parenting as “very complicated, difficult, and stressful,” only 24% of conservatives do. Given that both beliefs are associated with fewer children, their increased prevalence among liberals may help explain the ideological fertility gap. 
  • Liberals are more likely to report genetic and mental health concerns. For example, 18% of liberals, but only 10% of conservatives, report worries that they will pass on bad genes or inheritable conditions to their children. Similar percentages of liberals (19%) and conservatives (10%) say that their mental health is currently not good enough for them to have children. Both statements are correlated with lower numbers of children—and may thus shed additional light on the conservative-liberal fertility gap.

Together, these findings indicate that concerns about parental competence, stress, mental health, and genetic conditions might, at least in part, account for the emerging fertility divergence between the American right and left.

Introduction: The Gap

It is a well-known fact that fertility has been decreasing across America over the last 65 years, yet the growing partisan fertility gap has only recently emerged as a measurable phenomenon. Research from 2024 found that, among women who were born in the years 1975 through 1979, conservatives had 2.1 children, moderates 1.8, and liberals just 1.5. Further research conducted by IFS in 2024 showed that more conservative counties have a dramatically higher number of children than more liberal ones.

Recent literature also shows that the number of desired children also differs between liberals and conservatives. For example, a 2024 study found that the gap in desired children has existed between the left and right since 1989, the first year they began tracking for the discrepancy. In this paper, the gap was initially explained by differences in religiosity between the two groups. 

However, in recent years, this gap has grown and can no longer be explained purely by religious differences. Ideological gaps in desired and actual fertility exist in our survey results as well. Among Americans ages 18-54, liberals have 1.09 children on average whereas conservatives have an average of 1.40 children, a difference of 29%. This gap proves statistically significant even when accounting for several important confounding variables including sex, religion, race, income, age, marital status, and education.


Figure 1. Mean number of children by ideology

This gap also manifests itself in accordance with the ideal family size. When asked within our survey if a person could choose exactly the number of children they wanted, conservatives report 2.71, moderates 2.43, and liberals 2.16. The differences between conservatives and both moderates and liberals remained statistically significant after accounting for our selected control variables. Lyman Stone, the director of the Pronatalism Initiative at IFS, and Scott Yenor reported that the partisan gap is only appreciable after 1994, meaning that this ideological gap in fertility preferences is a relatively recent discovery. 

Much has already been said about the emergence of this gap. However, much less has been done to explore the underlying reasons why this gap exists. This brief’s objective is to further the discussion of what these reasons might be. While survey data limits our ability to make conclusions about causality, we can still explore and identify the characteristics of this disparity.

We find that the ideological fertility gap operates along two related dimensions. First, conservatives report substantially greater confidence in their ability to parent well. Second, liberals are significantly more likely to be anxious about their mental health or genetic conditions. 

Liberal and Conservative Views on Parenting

We find that concerns about parenting have a particularly strong relationship with fertility outcomes. When people are not sure they would be good parents, or when they perceive parenting to be incredibly difficult and stressful, they have dramatically fewer kids than those who do not. We also find that liberals are more likely to endorse these concerns than conservatives. 

The following chart shows a notable difference in parenting fears between liberals and conservatives, with 18% of Liberals unsure whether they would be a good parent compared to only 9% of conservatives. A large majority of both groups do not believe they would be bad parents. However, among those who fear being a bad parent, the partisan gap is quite large—and, even when controlling for parental status and other variables,2 statistically significant. 


Figure 2. Percent of adults who agreed with statement, by ideology

Liberals are more likely to express uncertainty about their parenting ability. We can only hypothesize why this is, but it may relate to a greater sense of anxiety around parenting in general. 

Regardless of why this difference exists, it correlates closely with decreased fertility. Individuals who fear they might be bad parents have, on average, 0.50 kids compared to 1.35 children among those who think they would be good parents. In other words, respondents who believe they might not be good parents report 63% fewer children on average than those who do not hold this belief. It is hard to overstate how significant a difference this is. It represents the largest difference observed among the variables examined. This speaks strongly to the power of perceived competence in parenting.

As already shown, liberals are likely to hold this belief to a much higher degree than conservatives. It follows that one reason the fertility gap exists is that liberals have greater reservations about their ability to parent. In fact, after controlling for uncertainty about being a good parent, the difference in childlessness percentages between conservatives and liberals is no longer statistically significant.

Viewing parenting as difficult could also influence one’s fertility. Those who see parenting as stressful and complicated have only 1.05 children on average compared to 1.31 among those who do not. Thus, respondents who hold this perception around parenting have, on average, around 25% fewer kids—a significantly lower number. This is an intuitive gap, given that many people try to avoid things they find to be incredibly stressful and difficult.

As with doubting one’s parenting abilities, we find that characterizing parenting as difficult also varies by ideology. Significantly fewer conservatives (24%) see parenting as “very complicated, difficult, and stressful” compared to liberals (36%). This gap, which remains significant when controlling for other potential explanatory variables (including parental status), gives credence to the idea that liberals view parenting as a more costly endeavor than conservatives.


Figure 3. Percent of adults who agreed with statement, by ideology

However, even conservative respondents who do see parenting as very difficult are significantly less likely to be childless (42%) than are liberals who share this view (62%). In contrast, there is not a significant difference in the probability of being childless between conservatives (40%) and liberals (45%) who disagree that parenting is difficult. This suggests that being liberal and viewing parenting as difficult may have a particularly strong impact on childlessness. 

Taken together, there appears to be a clear difference between the worldviews of liberals and conservatives. Conservatives are less worried about the potential stress and difficulty of parenting, and also have higher levels of confidence in their ability to parent well. Given that these beliefs are correlated with greater numbers of children, these two worldviews surrounding parenting could further influence the fertility gap.

One caveat in interpreting these results is that we cannot be sure about causality. It is certainly plausible that fearing that one will be a bad parent, and viewing parenting as difficult, will reduce one’s likelihood of having children. However, it is also possible that the experience of raising kids itself makes one realize that they are a good parent—and that parenting, despite its challenges, is not as stressful and difficult as they once believed. Future longitudinal surveys could help us identify whether parenting worries are resulting in fewer kids; whether having kids lessens one’s parenting concerns; or whether some other factor is influencing both of these outcomes. 

Anxieties Across the Divide

The ideological differences in our survey results extend beyond parenting concerns. We also find that liberals are more likely than conservatives to report concerns about passing on bad genes; in addition, they more frequently cite their mental health as a reason for postponing children. Groups that identify with each anxiety tend to have significantly fewer children, on average, than those who are not worried about each topic. In particular, worries about genetics and mental health both reflect concerns about what kind of world or situation a child could be born into. Though few people in the aggregate endorse these concerns, liberals have cited genetic and mental health concerns as influencing their fertility preferences considerably more than their conservative counterparts.

To begin, those who are concerned about passing on genetic conditions tend to have fewer children. We asked survey respondents to either agree or disagree with the following statement: "I am worried I will pass on bad genes or inheritable conditions to my children." Potentially, people who are worried about passing on bad genetic traits may fear the burden it would place on themselves as the parent and on the development and life of the child.

We find a wide and statistically significant gap in fertility between those who affirmed this statement and those who did not. Within the survey, those who are worried about passing on inheritable conditions have, on average, 0.88 children, while those who disagree with the statement have 1.30 children. This shows that those who reported genetic concerns have 32% fewer children than those who were not worried.

Additionally, 18% of liberals are worried about passing down poor genetic conditions to their offspring; this percentage is significantly higher than that of conservatives (10%), even when controlling for parental status and other potential confounds. These results are striking, not only because only around 3.9% of American children have a genetic condition, but also because we would expect genetic conditions to be randomly assorted within our sample (thus preventing any relationship between ideology and genetics). 

Despite the presumably equivalent chances of having inheritable diseases, there is a significant divergence between liberals and conservatives on genetic concerns. This divergence holds even when applying controls. 


Figure 4. Percent of adults who agreed with statement, by ideology

Additionally, while 65% of liberals who affirm this statement are childless, the same is true for only 48% of those who do not affirm it. Meanwhile, we did not find a significant difference in childlessness shares between conservatives who affirm this statement (52%) and those who do not (39%).  Thus, the relationship between genetic concerns and childlessness appears more pronounced for liberals than for conservatives. 

Genetic factors are by no means the only anxiety related to childbearing that respondents cite. Roughly 1 in 7 respondents endorse the statement that “my mental health is not good enough for me to have children right now.” This statement has a clear negative correlation with respondents’ fertility: Those who consider mental health a significant concern have—on average—0.84 children, while those who disagree with that statement have an average of 1.30 children.

Again, there is partisan disagreement on the relevance of mental health to fertility decisions. About 19% of liberals affirm this statement compared to only 10% of conservatives; this difference is statistically significant even when controlling for parental status and other variables.

Given these findings, mental health concerns may help mediate the relationship between political ideology and fertility. Indeed, when limiting the analysis to respondents who endorse mental health concerns, we find that the percentage of liberals who are childless (70%) does not differ significantly from that of conservatives (56%).  Similarly, among those who don’t report this concern, the percentages of liberals (47%) and conservatives (38%) who are childless do not differ significantly either.


Figure 5. Percent of adults who agreed with statement, by ideology

In summary, mental health worries, like genetic concerns and parenting fears, are correlated with lower fertility—and are also more prevalent among liberals than conservatives. Looking at both variables, there is a consistent trend: increased anxiety and worries are correlated with having fewer children. In addition to this finding, liberals are more likely to have these anxieties than conservatives. This could help bring to light the reasoning that liberals might give for why they are having fewer children or no children at all. It could also provide insight into some of the factors that influence their fertility decisions.

Conclusion: The Gap Explored

Across multiple measures, ideological differences in parenting confidence and anxiety are strongly associated with differences in fertility outcomes. Conservatives report greater confidence in their ability to parent and lower levels of concern regarding mental health and genetic risk. Liberals, by contrast, are more likely to express these anxieties. The consistency of these associations suggests that worldview and self-perception may play a meaningful role in the emerging partisan fertility gap.

There are limitations within both the data and the statistical models used to draw these conclusions. The methods employed in this report cannot determine whether identifying as liberal leads individuals to adopt these views and ultimately have fewer children, or whether individuals who already hold these views and have lower fertility are more likely to identify as liberal. In other words, the direction of causality remains unclear. Another limitation concerns how political ideology was measured. Respondents were grouped into three simple categories: liberal, moderate, or conservative, which are somewhat ambiguous. Future research could include push questions of sliding scales to potentially ascertain more accurate data on where respondents fall on the political spectrum.

Even with these limitations, the overall pattern in the survey data is consistent. Liberals are more likely to report anxiety about their views on parenting and childrearing than conservatives. Although causal claims cannot be made, the cumulation of these associations suggest that political affiliation is linked to perceptions of parenthood and, in turn, to the emerging partisan fertility gap.

Editor's Note: To view the Appendix and reference notes, please download the full research brief below.

 


Report

Passing the Torch: How Faith Moves Across Generations

June 2026 | by Jesse Smith, Jane Lankes Smith

June 2026

by Jesse Smith, Jane Lankes Smith

This research collaboration between the Institute for Family Studies and Communio explores how parents can transmit lasting religious beliefs and practices to their children.

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Executive Summary

Religious affiliation and participation in the United States have declined steadily over the past several decades. Fewer Americans now attend worship services regularly, identify with a faith tradition, or describe religion as central to their daily lives. This shift is especially pronounced among younger cohorts, who are more likely than previous generations to report no religious affiliation and less likely to engage in institutional religious practices. While belief has not disappeared, it has become more individualized and less connected to church life. As a result, many religious communities now face a sustained pattern of generational decline rather than temporary fluctuation, raising concerns for churches and church members alike about the long-term vitality of their congregation.

Research consistently shows that families are the single most important factor in whether children adopt and maintain faith into adulthood. Congregational programs, clergy leadership, and peer networks matter as well, but they are most effective when reinforced within the home. Studies demonstrate that parental modeling, shared faith practices, and the quality of parent–child relationships are among the strongest predictors of adult religiosity. When faith is embedded in everyday routines through conversation, ritual, and visible commitment, children are more likely to internalize it as part of their enduring identity. Taken together, this body of evidence underscores the need for analysis of how family processes operate in practice and which specific parental behaviors most effectively foster durable Christian commitment.

Using data on American adults aged 25+ who were raised in a Christian faith, we examine how parents most effectively transmit faith to their children. Consistent with past research, we show:

  • Religious practice in childhood is highly predictive of religious practice in adulthood.
  • Higher parent–child relationship quality in childhood is associated with stronger retention of religious belief and practice in adulthood.
  • Higher parental marital quality is associated with greater faith transmission.
  • Congregational involvement on the part of both parents and adolescents is linked to higher levels of faith commitment when children reach adulthood.

Our findings suggest that if faith transmission from parents to children is to remain viable, efforts must focus on equipping both families and churches with practical tools and guidance for intergenerational faith formation. This includes helping parents integrate faith into everyday family life, providing robust faith communities and supports, promoting loving and stable family relationships in the household, and more. By centering families and supporting them intentionally, church communities can better address the decline of Christianity and sustain faith across generations.

We make the following recommendations for parents and pastors, which we elaborate on more fully in the report:

Recommendations for Parents

1) Be your children’s role model for faith

2) Prioritize strong marriages and parent-child relationships

3) Make faith formation a joint effort

4) Build religion into everyday family life

5) Make faith a regular topic of family conversation

Recommendations for Pastors

1) Guide parents—not just children—as part of religious education

2) Support strong marriages and coparenting relationships

3) Actively engage fathers

4) Create space for community

5) Invest in youth ministry

Introduction: The State of American Religion

Religious families in America are in a challenging situation. Religion in the United States is in decline by virtually every measure. Religious identification, worship attendance, and belief in God have all dropped by double-digit margins since the 1990s. Furthermore, research shows most of this decline is intergenerational. That is, rather than people becoming less religious over their adult lives, each new generation enters adulthood less faithful than the last one. This points to a decline that looks slow at first, since generational replacement is a slow process, but cascades into an avalanche over time as the most devout generations disappear and are replaced by more secular ones.

There is not any one reason for this decline, but rather several factors working together in a kind of “perfect storm.”

  • Social values have shifted away from authority and tradition, and toward individualism and autonomy. Children growing up in this cultural shift are primed to look at long-established religious institutions with suspicion. 
  • The end of the Cold War created a change in American identity where faith in God became less central
  • Early internet discourse in the mid-2000s and subsequent social media platforms exposed younger generations to doubts and atheist arguments and enabled them to form communities outside religious boundaries.  
  • Moral scandals on the part of Catholics and Protestants alike turned a lot of people off to organized religion.  
  • The partisan culture war led many on the political left and center to look askance at traditional religion, which they see as incompatible with their worldviews. 
  • Increased education and delayed family formation led young adults to stray further away from faith for longer periods of time, making return more difficult. 
  • As extracurricular activities in the teenage years and professional demands in adulthood have increased, for many people, faith was not so much abandoned as just crowded out.

In short, the decline of American Christianity is not due to any one thing, but rather multiple forces all working together.

Those who want to instill faith in younger generations are thus facing an uphill battle, and parents are the front line in that battle. While pastors and churches play a vital supporting role, they cannot minister to youth who never pass through their doors in the first place. Furthermore, they have lost the support of the larger culture, and so are not naturally viewed by younger generations as legitimate authorities. If children are going to learn the importance of religion, carry it with them into adulthood, and pass it on to their own children, this must happen most centrally in the home.

While the challenge is formidable, there is some good news. Research confirms that there is quite a lot parents can do to maximize the chances that their kids will carry on the faith.1 While these steps may be difficult or demanding at times, they are not mysterious. Indeed, for the most part they line up with common sense. Parents can pass down faith by practicing it themselves and preaching what they practice. Specifically: 

  • By modeling religion, they show their kids what it should look like. 
  • By making religion a family activity, they let their children practice it themselves and make it feel like a natural part of life. 
  • By talking about faith at home, they help their children understand religion and why it matters.

All this should be done in the context of a loving and stable home, and with the support of a strong church community, so children have a powerful sense of the many goods Christianity can provide. If parents do these things, it is far more likely that their children will develop faith commitments that endure even after they leave the nest, and someday build their own.

This report provides an overview of what empirical research tells us about what helps parents pass down the faith to the next generation. Drawing on a number of data sources, it examines the specific practices that are most effective in the task of faith formation. Though our primary focus is on family life, parents cannot do it alone. They not only need guidance and moral support but—as this report will show—they need programmatic support from their congregations as well. The key ingredients for passing on the faith are devoted parents embedded in strong, active church communities where pastors and leaders take faith formation seriously.

Faith Environment in Childhood

In previous eras of American history, parents could have a realistic expectation that Christian beliefs and values would be reinforced for their children by their larger social contexts, including friends, neighbors, schools, and the media. In most parts of the country, that is no longer the case today. If children are going to learn Christian beliefs and practices, this must happen first and foremost in the home and be guided by parents. 

Parents Are the First Role Models

Research confirms that the strongest predictor of how religious children become is how religious their parents were during their upbringing. Parents are the most important spiritual role models.

Religious commitment has multiple dimensions, with core characteristics including worship attendance, subjective importance of religion in people’s lives, and personal practices, such as regular prayer. The figures below show that when parents rate highly on these dimensions, their children are more likely to do the same later in adulthood. For instance, when parents reported attending church weekly while raising their children, a predicted 26% of their children did the same in their 30s and 40s, compared to only 12% whose parents were not weekly attenders.

Similarly, when parents identified religion as being very important in their lives, nearly two-thirds of their children were predicted to say the same as adults, compared to less than half of those whose parents did not affirm the high importance of religion. Finally, parents who prayed daily had a 47% chance of having children who did the same as adults, compared to less than one-third when parents did not pray daily.

Taken together, these patterns underscore a central point: children tend to mirror what they consistently observe in their parents’ lives.

Putting the "Practice" in Religious Practice

While modeling religious commitment is a good start, parents who want to raise faithful children must go beyond this and involve them in religious practices. While it is not always clear from the data, it is safe to assume that most parents who attend church are bringing their children with them, particularly when their children are younger. Such participation is critical for cultivating religious habits, transmitting teachings, and fostering a sense of embeddedness within a church community. 

At the same time, focusing only on weekly attendance may lead children to see faith as something limited to Sundays. To mitigate this, parents should make efforts to work faith into the rhythm of family life throughout the week.

Results from the National Study of Youth and Religion highlight two family-based spiritual practices that can make a difference: 1) saying grace before meals, and 2) praying together as a family (in addition to prayer at mealtimes or church services). Families that engage in these practices are more likely to raise children who remain faithful into adulthood, as reflected across multiple measures. Children who participate in these practices with their parents are more likely to go to church, say religion is very important to them, pray regularly, identify as Christian, and report belief in the divinity of Jesus Christ by the time they reach their mid-to-late 20s.

The results in this figure show that the foundations of Christian faith are more durable when they are formed in the rhythms of daily life in a family context.

Preaching What You Practice

A great deal of emphasis is rightly placed on religious practice in the family. Church attendance, acts of worship, prayer, scripture reading, and similar behaviors are all central to Christian life, not only as ways of turning toward God but also a way of developing faithful habits, feelings, and a sense of a shared community that bring Christianity to life and make it part of time and physical space. The importance of these practices for faith formation cannot be overstated. 

Yet they are also not enough. Parents need to be willing to not only practice but also talk about religion regularly at home. This is for several reasons:

  • Theological teachings can be complicated and nonintuitive, so children need instruction to understand them.
  • In a secularizing culture, even children in religious households may develop a sense that their religious lives at home, however positive, don’t have much to do with the concerns of the outside world like getting good grades, engaging in hobbies or extracurricular activities, or maintaining good friendships.
  • As kids get older and encounter arguments against Christian beliefs, they may find their faith shaken if they haven’t been prepared.

In short, to sustain faith commitments in a world that doesn’t support them, children need to understand the “What?” and “Why?” of religion, and it is up to parents (with the support of their churches and other sources) to articulate the answers to those questions. Spiritual formation must feed the mind as well as the body and soul.

This is clear in the data, which show that talking about religion at home growing up is one of the strongest predictors of becoming a religious adult. Children who grew up in a household where faith was discussed several times a week or more were over twice as likely to attend church, say religion was very important to them, and pray daily in young adulthood, and around 20 percentage points more likely to identify as a Christian and believe in the divinity of Jesus Christ.

These results contain an important lesson that runs counter to some modern conventional wisdom. Many parents worry about bringing up faith too much with their children for fear of driving them away or “jamming it down their throats.” Some may worry that they’ll be unable to answer their children’s questions, or shy away from talking about moral teachings that conflict with many modern views, especially about sex and marriage. Parents may hope that quietly modeling faithful lives and putting a good face on religion will be enough, and that too much religion talk might seem strange, off-putting, or drift into uncomfortable topics. We should not dismiss these concerns altogether. Some people do report being turned off to religion when their parents came on too strong, or having their faith shaken when adults could not answer their questions or when difficult conversations were handled poorly. Such discussions can come at a cost when parents come off as dogmatic, preachy, or ill-prepared.

Yet, according to the data, efforts to pass on the faith are more often undermined not by parents laying it on too thick, but by taking too light a touch. The relevance of Christianity in modern life isn’t affirmed by the larger culture, and if kids aren’t taught why and how faith matters, they are likely to assume that it does not matter—or at best, that faith is just one “lifestyle choice” among others. If they are not free to ask hard questions about religion, they may assume there are no answers. It thus falls on parents to set a tone in the household where talk of religion is normal and to prepare for the hard theological or moral conversations, especially as their kids get older. This is a key area where churches and religious leaders are in a position to offer guidance and serve as key resources for both parents and youth.

Forming a United Front

Parents must also work together to provide consistency. If parents present a united front on the importance of faith as well as the content of theological teachings, children are more likely to internalize these messages. On the other hand, if parents send their children mixed messages or undermine one another’s efforts, whether intentionally or not, children are more likely to conclude that faith is something optional rather than central. When parents are in religious tension, it will further be harder to integrate faith into the rhythms of family life where children are especially likely to feel its importance and develop religious attachments. Parent efforts oriented around a shared family vision are thus vital for both the concentration and consistency of faith formation. 

When comparing religious outcomes for adult children based on shared parent faith, we see that when parents are religiously alike, their children are more likely to exhibit religious commitments in adulthood.

Interfaith parents sometimes respond to theological differences by adopting a “choose for yourself” approach, emphasizing autonomy and delaying firm guidance until children are older. While well-intentioned, this strategy appears to weaken religious transmission. Research suggests children raised by interfaith or religiously discordant parents, especially those who leave religious choice entirely up to the child, exhibit lower levels of religious practice and belief in adulthood. This pattern reflects a broader sociological principle: identities are more likely to be adopted and maintained when they are modeled, reinforced, and treated as meaningful by authoritative figures, rather than presented as one option among many. 

Mixed-faith parents who share a goal of raising religious children but differ in preferred approach will face additional challenges. Still, the more they can find common ground around a shared religious messaging and practices, the more likely their children are to grow up valuing religion

The Importance of Fathers

In the United States, responsibility for children’s faith formation is disproportionately carried by mothers, even in households where both parents identify as devout. Mothers tend to take the lead in parent-child religious communication, initiating faith conversations more frequently than fathers and participating more consistently in religious discussions at home. For example:

  • When asked “Who is more responsible for how your children learn about religion?” just 17% of dads cited themselves, compared to 39% of moms. 
  • Teenagers who attend church are most likely to attend with both their mother and father. However, among those who only attend with one parent, 79% attend with their mother, compared with 21% who attend with their father. 
  • Even among regular churchgoers, mothers report significantly more frequent faith-encouraging conversations with their children than fathers.  

Yet intergenerational transmission of religion is strongest when both parents actively promote faith within the home. Children are more likely to retain Christian beliefs and practices into adulthood when they receive consistent messaging from both mothers and fathers rather than relying on one parent alone. In other words, two involved parents are better than one.

  • 41% of children who attend church weekly with both parents will go on to attend church weekly as an adult. This percentage drops to 29% if children attend with only one parent. 
  • Similar patterns exist for prayer, reading sacred texts, belief in God, and religious importance.

Individuals who had faith conversations with both parents in childhood also had significantly more faith conversations with their own children (p < .001), suggesting that parent–child religious interactions in one generation may shape how faith is transmitted in the next.

Thus, the evidence suggests that faith formation is most effective when it is a shared parental responsibility.

Making the Home a Haven

If the home provides the foundation for children’s faith formation, parents must do everything they can to ensure that this foundation is strong. Since religious life and family life are deeply intertwined, providing a happy and healthy family life helps children appreciate the value of religion. In contrast, kids who grow up with more negative or distant feelings toward their families are likely to feel detached from their childhood faith as well. Research points to two areas of family life that play a key role for faith formation: marital stability and family closeness.

Marital Stability

Children are most likely to grow up religious when they were raised by two married parents. This relationship can be explained by at least two possible direct pathways. 

First, as noted above, faith formation takes a lot of concentrated effort, and two committed parents may have the most time and energy to devote to these tasks. Establishing and maintaining religious routines, applying time and expertise to family religious discussions, recognizing and responding to children’s particular spiritual needs and struggles, and facilitating logistical or financial support for children’s religious activities are all demanding tasks for which more “manpower” might make a difference. If children’s faith formation is seen as a kind of investment, then two married parents will simply have more to invest, not only for particular children but for fostering an overall faith-based family culture. This pathway has received limited attention in existing research, but is consistent with both theories of religious investment and our findings:

  • Compared to non-married individuals, married individuals have significantly more faith conversations with their children, suggesting more frequent and intentional engagement within the home.
  • Consistent with this pattern, individuals who grew up with married parents have a higher likelihood of attending church weekly, praying daily, reading sacred texts, believing in God, and having high religious importance in adulthood.

A second plausible pathway relates to the perceived contradiction between Christian doctrine on marriage and a child’s lived experience. Catholic and Protestant denominations alike teach that marriage is an image or icon of Christ’s relationship with the church. When a child’s lived experience at home differs from the marriage “ideal” presented in the Bible, in sermons, or in Sunday school, this may create a form of cognitive dissonance that makes maintaining religious commitment more difficult as a child moves into adulthood.

The pathway may also be more indirect. For children, the experience of family breakups or single parents being stretched thin produces distress, and this may lead them to distance themselves from their childhood origins, both socially and emotionally in adulthood. This distance may extend to their Christian background. Whatever the reason, research is clear that children raised in a household with their own married parents will tend to be the most religious in adulthood. 

While the benefits of having married parents for religious transmission is a consistent finding, patterns for other family structures are less clear. In the Add Health data set, two distinctive results emerge. First, children are least likely to grow up to attend worship when they come from stepfamilies, and second, this effect is much stronger for boys than girls. Specifically, boys who grow up in married households have a 14% probability of attending regular worship in adulthood, compared to 5% for boys from stepfamilies—a gap of 9 percentage points. For girls, this gap is only 4 percentage points, and it is not statistically significant.

When examining the NSYR data set, however, we arrive at different findings. Here, the key difference is between married and single-parent households. Specifically, children from married households have a 19% probability of attending weekly worship in adulthood, compared to only 10% for those from single-parent households. In this case, the gap between married and cohabiting or stepfamily households is smaller and not statistically significant. We also see no differences between boys and girls. 

This mix of findings makes it difficult to draw strong conclusions about what religious transmission looks like for different family forms. The pattern does support the general point, however, that married parents have the most advantages when it comes to the faith formation of their children.

Marital Satisfaction

Importantly, religious transmission is shaped not just by marital stability, but also marital quality. When parents are in unhappy or high-conflict marriages, this may undermine their effectiveness in handing down the faith. Parents in troubled marriages are likely to have more difficulty coordinating the time and effort needed for effective faith formation. When children see loving, harmonious marriages preached at church but witness marital strife at home, this creates cognitive dissonance that makes Christianity harder to internalize. The distress of these experiences can contribute to distancing from both family and faith after children leave the home. Efforts to pass on faith thus benefit from not only stable but also happy and healthy marriages. 

The importance of happy marriages is affirmed in our analyses. Among parents currently raising children, those who were “completely” satisfied in their marriages reported having nearly five faith-related conversations with their children per week, compared to less than four when parents were “not very” or “not at all” satisfied. 

This reduced religious socialization may have long-term effects. Our longitudinal results showed that when parents reported being very happy in their marriages, their children showed a predicted 46% probability of praying daily in adulthood, compared to only 41% when parents had less happy marriages.

In summary, stable marriages support consistent religious practice, reinforce parental modeling, and provide a relational environment in which Christian beliefs and practices are more easily internalized and sustained into adulthood. In contrast, family structure disruptions, including divorce, are associated with declines in religious participation among adolescents and young adults. Overall, evidence suggests that marital stability creates social and relational conditions that make religious transmission more likely to succeed. 

Parent-Child Relationship Quality

In order for parents’ faith modeling, practicing, and preaching to be effective, they must form and maintain close and loving relationships with their children. Children who feel loved and understood are more likely to identify with their parents and remain open to their guidance. Strong relationships also improve communication, allowing parents to convey religious beliefs and practices more clearly and credibly. In this way, the quality of the parent–child relationship serves as a foundation for faith formation. 

Consistent with this, individuals who report close, supportive, and communicative relationships with their parents—particularly during adolescence—are more likely to retain their parents’ religious affiliation, attend services, and report higher levels of religiosity later in life. High-quality relationships appear to strengthen the intergenerational transmission of religion by increasing the credibility of parental modeling and making children more receptive to parents’ values and practices. Conversely, conflictual or distant relationships weaken this transmission process, even when parents are themselves highly religious.

Our findings align with this broader literature: the quality of the father–child relationship is strongly associated with faith in adulthood. Compared to those who had a very badsomewhat bad, or somewhat good relationship with their father growing up, those who had a very good relationship have…

The same pattern appears when examining relationships with mothers. Those who had a very good relationship with their mother in childhood have…

Once again, there is a compounding effect: adults who report strong relationships with both parents exhibit the highest levels of religiosity across measures. Those who had a very good relationship with both parents in childhood have…

Research suggests parent–child relationship quality does not transmit religion by itself, but it creates the relational conditions under which transmission becomes more likely. Warm, supportive relationships make parental modeling credible, increase openness to instruction, and strengthen identification with parents—processes that collectively raise the probability that children retain Christian beliefs and practices into adulthood. 

Media Oversight

One of the challenges of parenthood is striking a balance between being a friend on the one hand and an authority figure on the other. Parents are responsible for establishing warm and loving relationships with their children, but also for setting rules and boundaries. According to psychologist Diana Baumrind, children do best when their parents love them unconditionally but also hold them to a high standard.  This insight can be applied to faith formation.

One way that parents can set appropriate boundaries is by paying close attention to the children’s media diet. This is especially important today, when much of the available content is unfriendly to Christian values, social media addiction is rampant, and the threat of pornography looms large. 

Our findings confirm that when parents monitor their teens’ media more closely, they are more likely to produce religious children. When parents closely monitored TV time, their kids were more likely to attend worship, say religion is very important, pray daily, identify as Christian, and believe in Jesus in young adulthood. When they closely monitored internet access, the same result held for each outcome except weekly attendance, as the figure shows.

It’s worth noting the data on media exposure in childhood were collected in 2003, before widespread high-speed internet, social media, and the advent of smartphones. The long-term effects of contemporary children’s media environments—which are both more pervasive and more immersive—on adult religiosity have yet to fully emerge, though existing evidence raises significant concerns about their trajectories. As such, the importance of monitoring electronics in childhood is almost certainly even more central now than it was in previous decades. 

The Importance of Congregation and Community

This report has emphasized that parents play the single most important role in passing on faith to the next generation. A wealth of evidence supports this conclusion. But this does not mean that church leaders or congregations are left sitting on the sideline. For one thing, they make communal religious practice possible in the first place. Parents seeking to practice Christianity with their children need a church to worship in and a pastor to lead the service. At a bare minimum, religious leaders are needed to keep Christian institutions functional and available for the souls who need them, and this is no small task.

But the role of churches is much more than this. Parents need support, not only from clergy and ministers but from other believers, and supportive community is best fostered in the context of congregations. By embedding themselves in church communities, parents are able to show their children how religion can meet social, civic, psychological, or even professional, as well as spiritual needs. By intentionally creating communities that welcome youth and young adults, pastors can show that faith provides resources for navigating challenges at any stage of life. Though parents may be the front line, faith formation can be viewed as a partnership between parents, pastors, and congregations.

Church Isn't Just for Sundays

Parents can both embed their families in religious contexts and model strong commitment by attending church activities outside of Sunday services. By attending gatherings such as potlucks, holiday festivals, competitions, and similar programs, parents establish a social network with others who share their beliefs and commitments, reinforcing these for their children. This helps create a social world where religious commitment is not only normal but desirable—and establishes a buffer for children against a world where religion is either ignored, treated as a lifestyle choice, or viewed as an outright pathology. 

Institutional religion provides not just spiritual benefits or opportunities for socializing but also acts as a concrete vehicle for doing good in the world, whether aimed at fellow congregants or larger social causes. Through volunteering and ministry, parents can show their children the immense social benefits religion provides not only for individuals but for society as a whole. 

When parents either attend church activities outside of worship services at least once a month or engage in any amount of religious volunteering, their children are more likely to be highly religious in young adulthood 10 years later, as the figure illustrates.

Youth Programming Matters

Though parents play the central role in their children’s faith formation, this role changes as children get older. As they enter adolescence, kids develop a stronger desire for independence and both a mental and a social world more differentiated from their family environments. As many parents can attest, teenagers often appear more invested in their friend groups than their families. While this shift away from parents and towards peers is sometimes overstated, it is nonetheless a real phenomenon that parents and pastors alike must take seriously. 

This means youth programming and ministries serve a vital function in keeping kids engaged. Our data suggest the availability of these programs can have a lasting impact on children’s spiritual trajectories. When parents encourage their children to participate in a youth group, they were more likely to exhibit high religiosity in young adulthood across multiple indicators. For instance, 22% of children who were encouraged to attend youth group as teenagers attended church weekly at ages 25–28, compared to only 9% who were not similarly encouraged.

We see similar effects for the availability of youth ministries. When parents reported attending a congregation that prioritized youth ministry, their children were once again more likely to exhibit high religious commitment across multiple outcomes. 

The importance of religious programming is further underscored when examining activities such as church camps and retreats. Children who reported having ever attended either of these when they were growing up were more likely to exhibit high religious commitment 10 years later, as shown in the figure.

This means it is both incumbent upon churches to provide these ministries, and upon parents to seek out congregations that offer this kind of support for their teenagers.

Tying It All Together

Taken together, our analyses support a kind of nested model of effective religious transmission down through generations. 

The first layer of this nest is the family household. Here, parents’ first priority should be to establish close, stable, and loving relationships both with one another and with their children. A happy, healthy home provides an ideal context where children look up to and identify with their parents, and so will be most open to their guidance. Once this “nest” is secure, parents are ready to lay a strong faith foundation in family life. This involves modeling strong religious commitments for children, facilitating their children’s own practices through regular worship and family rituals and routines, and making faith a regular topic of conversation so children develop a rational understanding of why and how religion matters. Faith should serve as a kind of glue that helps keep family bonds strong, and should be present seven days a week, not just one.

The second layer of the “nest” is the religious congregation. The congregation provides the supportive community and guidance that parents need as they take on the challenging task of their children’s faith formation. It provides a means of religious involvement outside the home and weekly services and therefore gives children a broader view of the expansive role Christianity can play in their lives. It provides opportunities for engagement and a social world that meets the needs of the whole human person, as well as a buffer against secularizing influences in the larger culture. It also provides programming to meet the distinctive social and developmental needs that come with the transition to adolescence, helping parents and teens alike to navigate what can sometimes be rocky territory.

As our data and an expansive body of existing research confirm, children raised in a strong religious nest of this kind are the most likely to carry their faith with them into adulthood—and hopefully, to their own children as well. Even with all these supports in place, many children still fall away. The challenges to maintaining strong religious commitments in a secularizing culture, both for our children and for ourselves, are formidable. But this report shows that there is plenty that parents and pastors can do to maximize the chances of their kids keeping the faith. Beyond these steps, there is no substitute for steady prayer and trust in the grace of God.

10 Recommendations for Fostering Lasting Religiousity

FOR PARENTS:

1) Be your children’s role model for faith

You are the first and most important religious figure in your children’s lives. You must show them what it means to live a life founded on faith.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Attending worship with children on a regular basis;
  • Letting them see you pray, read scripture, and engage in other devotional activities;
  • Making Christian images or symbols visible in the home and other regular environments;
  • Letting them know how faith shapes how you live life and make decisions; and
  • Prioritizing faith and church commitments over other things (going to social events, watching the game, traveling) when they conflict.

2) Prioritize strong marriages and parent-child relationships

Shared norms and beliefs are more readily established in families where parents form warm, close relationships with both one another and their children.

In practice, for marriage this may look like:

  • Continuing to date one another regularly, even if it’s something as simple as a coffee outing or movie night at home;
  • Having daily wind-down times for spouses to talk to one another without distraction, process the day, and share challenges and success; and
  • Annually participating in skills-based marriage retreats or classes that can enhance marital success.

For parenthood, this may look like:

  • Spending shared time (e.g., reading, talking at meals, playing, or working on small tasks together) to build familiarity and trust, which strengthens the emotional bond between all family members;
  • Listening attentively to children and taking their perspective seriously, ensuring that they feel heard;
  • Expressing affection and encouragement for children in order to communicate acceptance and support; and
  • Setting clear rules and maintaining calm, predictable responses during conflict to help children feel secure even when discipline is necessary.

3) Make faith formation a joint effort

Both mothers and fathers should take active, intentional roles in children’s faith formation.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Engaging in religious activities like going to church, praying, or reading scripture as a family;
  • Coordinating with one another to ensure consistency in what is taught to children;
  • Finding ways for each parent to engage and lead in ways they feel are consistent with their gifts. For example, if one parent is more inclined toward prayer and another more inclined toward study, the parent inclined toward prayer can be the one who calls the family to prayer, while the parent inclined toward study can lead in teaching. In either case, the other parent should be seen as being supportive;
  • In mixed-faith households, identifying what both parents agree on and organizing household religious activities around that; and
  • In households with only one religious parent, allowing the religious parent to take the lead and securing the support of the nonreligious parent as much as possible.

4) Build religion into everyday family life

Religion must be part of the normal family routine, not just something for Sundays.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Saying grace before meals;
  • Saying family prayers at bedtime or other points throughout the day;
  • Regularly reading scriptures or devotionals;
  • Having Christian music, TV, or other programming in the household; and
  • Normalizing Christian imagery or symbols in family culture, whether through artwork, clothing, bumper stickers, or whatever else feels comfortable.

5) Make faith a regular topic of family conversation

In a secularizing society, children need to be taught to engage with what faith means and how it is relevant to their lives. If they don’t learn this from their families, they likely won’t learn it at all.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Initiating conversations about scripture, church sermons, or other faith topics through a simple question or prompt during a car ride or while running errands;
  • Finding ways to insert Christian teachings, Bible stories, or other faith material in conversations where it is relevant;
  • Narrating the role of religion in personal thinking and decision-making (e.g., giving credit to God for blessings in life or work);
  • Listening as well as talking, ensuring children can express what they find compelling, confusing, or difficult in their religious lives;
  • Talking about moral situations children encounter at school or in the news and how we should think about them as Christians; and
  • Seeking avenues to develop one’s own moral and theological knowledge to be able to discuss it with children more effectively.

FOR PASTORS:

1) Guide parents—not just children—as part of religious education

Parents need a strong understanding of the central role they play in children’s faith formation, and support in carrying out that role.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Emphasizing the importance of parents in sermons and other messaging;
  • Balancing efforts at prompting parents to take their role seriously, affirm their efforts and struggles, and consult with them on particular challenges they face;
  • Providing classes, support groups, or other programming to offer parents assistance in faith formation;
  • Creating literature based on observed parental needs that provides guidance in faith formation; and
  • Encouraging specific podcasts, audiobooks, or small group pathways for adults to become more educated on scripture and their faith to feel comfortable guiding their children.

2) Support strong marriages and coparenting relationships

Many parents need help working together before they are ready to take on the challenging tasks of their children’s faith formation.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Preaching regularly (ideally monthly and not less than quarterly) on the importance of investing in your own marriage and discipling your children;
  • Developing an ongoing relationship and marriage ministry with multiple pathways to building both the spiritual and the human skills of living out Christian marriage, including skills-based programs that are delivered one-to-many, one-to-some, and one-to-one;
  • Having church leaders set a strong example where leaders are the first to participate in the relationship and marriage ministry appropriate for their situation. This helps everyone know that this is a ministry for the whole church and not just for people who are struggling;
  • Providing date night or other bonding opportunities for parents through organized activities or targeted provision of child care;
  • Finding ways to recognize and reward couples who complete and participate in a church’s marriage ministry, such as an annual, invite-only dinner in the pastor’s home for couples who completed the marriage ministry;
  • Providing qualified pastoral counseling for parents seeking to improve relationships; and
  • Identifying resources for different family situations (e.g., married couples, stepfamilies, and single parents in coparenting arrangements) based on congregant needs.

3) Actively engage fathers

Religious foundation is stronger when fathers are involved.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Emphasizing the importance of the father’s involvement in faith formation sermons and other religious messaging;
  • Encouraging fathers to adopt specific, distinctive roles at home such as regularly leading family prayer, so that men have a dedicated domain of responsibility;
  • Organizing men’s groups where fathers can both share challenges and hold one another accountable for involvement in the religious life of their families;
  • Thinking of ways to appeal to men specifically when developing marriage and family ministries; and
  • Organizing father-child activities such as dances (for daughters) or wilderness trips (for sons) that specifically target father involvement.

4) Create space for community

Parents need supportive communities to help with their children’s faith formation, both formally and informally.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Hosting potlucks, holiday celebrations, and other shared, informal social events;
  • Establishing hobby or shared interest affinity groups (e.g., hiking groups, fantasy football leagues);
  • Organizing informal athletic events (e.g., park “pick-up” sessions); and
  • Creating “skill-swap” volunteer events that bring congregants together for church maintenance.

5) Invest in youth ministry

Youth have distinctive needs. Teens in particular need their own spaces.

In practice, this may look like:

  • Hiring, where possible, a dedicated youth minister with demonstrated ability for engaging teenagers;
  • Hosting regular youth group meetings;
  • Hosting camps and retreats for more intensive experiences of youth spiritual formation;
  • Meeting youth where they are as individuals, such as by listening to their struggles and taking an interest in their activities; and developing “rite of passage” milestones, such as formal blessings, wilderness trips, or confirmation celebrations so that youth associate maturity with spiritual practices.

Editor's Note: Download the full report for the Data and Methods, Reference, and Appendix sections.



Report

Renewing Arizona Families: Why Strong Families are Central to Arizona’s Future

May 2026 | by Brad Wilcox, Grant Bailey, Sophie Anderson, Peter Gentala, Bob Trent

May 2026

by Brad Wilcox, Grant Bailey, Sophie Anderson, Peter Gentala, Bob Trent

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Introduction

Arizona is one of the top 10  fastest growing states in the U.S., attracting roughly 210 new residents every day. There’s a lot to love about the Grand Canyon State. 

Historian Frederick Jackson Turner's frontier thesis held that American democracy and the American Dream were indelibly shaped by the existence of the frontier. By giving Americans settling in the West a shot at a new and better life, the frontier advanced economic liberty and social equality for the nation. Arizona has long played a central role in both advancing and embodying the American Dream as a frontier state.

The state motto, "Ditat Deus" (Latin for "God Enriches"), has been part of Arizona’s history since Abraham Lincoln recognized the Arizona Territory in 1863. The motto reflects the belief that the desert territory and the faithfulness of its inhabitants would yield remarkable prosperity. Throughout the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the state attracted waves of pioneers drawn by promising opportunities: agriculture, ranching, mining, tourism, and more recently, a business-friendly and attractive retirement ethos. Throughout its history as a territory and state, Arizona has been a destination for Americans and immigrants seeking a new and prosperous life in the beautiful Southwest.

Today, the realization of the Arizona Dream depends, in no small part, on strong families. Children from healthy, thriving families and adults who head up such families are more likely to flourish socially, emotionally, and financially in the Grand Canyon State. 

This new, ground-breaking report explains how strong families matter to the fortunes of those seeking the Arizona Dream and what public policy can do to strengthen marriage and family life across the state.

Section I: Thriving Children

Getting off to a strong educational start is essential to realizing the Arizona Dream. This report shows that Arizona kids are more likely to get a good education when they come from strong and stable families. Teachers and school administrators will attest to this because they see its truth demonstrated every year in the students who pass through their classrooms. Children coming from intact families where the mother and father are both involved in their children’s lives are, on average, more likely to have the social, emotional, and financial resources they need to flourish in Arizona. 

This is consistent with what leading think tanks and scholars have found in the research on child well-being over the years. The Annie E. Casey Foundation notes, for instance, that children:

growing up in single-parent families typically do not have the same economic or human resources available as those growing up in two-parent families. Single parents also are more likely to experience high stress and depression–especially single moms–as well as limited social support. These factors can affect kids, with those growing up in single-parent families facing greater risks of academic, emotional and behavioral problems. 

Likewise, family scholars find that marriage boosts the welfare of children in a range of ways. In the words of economist Melissa Kearney:

… [S]tudy after study suggests that a married-parent family tends to confer benefits to children in the form of greater resources during childhood, and that these increased resources then translate into better opportunities and greater educational attainment, among other outcomes.

The data we analyzed in Arizona tell a similar story for children in the Grand Canyon State.

School Performance

Looking at Arizona children ages 6 to 17 in the National Survey of Children’s Health 2022-2024, we find that 85% of children living with their intact married parents received A’s and B’s compared to 64% of those from single-mother homes, and 65% with other family structures. Just 15% of children living with their married biological parents received poor grades (B’s and C’s or lower), compared to over a third from single-mother and other homes.
 
Figure 1. Percent of children ages 6-17 who earned poor grades by family status and sex.

This is a profound difference. Indeed, with controls for age, sex, race, income, and parental education and immigration status, children from non-intact families are about 91% more likely to be earning poor grades than children from intact families.

Reading Proficiency

The link between family and academic success also shows up at the community level. Arizona school districts with a higher share of married-couple households tend to have higher reading proficiency scores, a fundamental requirement for future academic and life success.

Figure 2. Percent of school-age children proficient in Reading/Language Arts by share of married households, by AZ school district.            

For instance, 60% of students in Higley Unified School District in Gilbert tested proficient in English Language Arts. It is no coincidence that 77% of households with children in this district are led by married parents. In Flowing Wells Unified District, on the other hand, where only 54% of households with children have married parents, 35% of students tested proficient in English Language Arts despite the district spending about 60% more per-student on classroom support than Higley ($1,138 per student vs. $734 per student). The trendlines of reading proficiency and per capita married-parent homes tend to track closely in school districts across the state.

Again, teachers and school administrators see this regularly. 

This trendline holds true when looking at married households by race and ethnicity. Children raised in married-parent homes have, on average, higher reading proficiency rates. This is true for Hispanic, Native American, Black, and White students in school districts across Arizona.

Figure 3. Percent of school-age children proficient in Reading/Language Arts by share of married households, AZ school district, and race.

For Hispanic, White, Native American, and Black Arizonans, school districts with more married families tend to have higher shares of children scoring proficient on the English Language Arts section of Arizona’s Academic Standards Assessment (AASA) for grades 3 through 8, and on the ACT Aspire for grades 9 and 11.

In a multivariate model, controlling for income levels within school districts and student population race, we find that the districts with the highest share of married-parent families have a 43-percentage-point proficiency advantage in English Language Arts over those districts with the lowest share of kids living with married parents. By contrast, the highest-earning school districts have a 27-percentage-point advantage in ELA proficiency over lowest-earning school districts, after controls for family structure and race. 

Figure 4. Estimated percent of AZ students proficient in English Language Arts by race and income.

A 27-percentage-point difference is significant. But crucially here, the married-parent household advantage is larger than income. In other words, children living in districts with more married-parent families tend to outperform those living in richer districts, all things being equal. 

After controls for district level income and share of family households headed by married adults, we find that non-White race and ethnic groups, including Hispanic, Black, and Native American student populations, still have lower reading proficiency rates than White students. But, again, family structure is more predictive of reading proficiency than race and ethnicity.

School Contacts for Misbehavior or Learning Problems

Children living in non-intact family households are also more likely to be contacted by the school for poor academic performance or behavioral conduct. 

Figure 5. Percent of children ages 6-17 who had parents contacted by school, by family structure and student sex.

Net of controls, Arizona students from non-intact families are 33% more likely to have their parents contacted by their school for behavioral or learning issues.

These trends also apply across most major racial and ethnic groups in Arizona: Whites, Hispanics, Native Americans, and Blacks. The next figure shows how school contacts vary significantly by intact vs. non-intact families, except for Hispanic children. What’s apparent is that kids from intact, married families in nearly all racial/ethnic groups are markedly more likely to get better grades and avoid school contacts for behavioral or academic problems.

Figure 6. Percent of children ages 6-17 who had parents contacted by school, by race and family status.

In general, then, Arizona children get a boost from strong and stable families when it comes to school. Let us now move from education to mental health.

Child Mental Health and Well-Being

Depression is a leading cause of disability and difficulty among young people today. Since 1990, rates of depression have increased by over 50% to epidemic proportions for those under age 30. More concerning, people born after 2000 show even higher prevalence of depression. One study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association reports the incidence of clinical depression has increased by approximately 60% for youth ages 5 to 22 in Arizona’s neighbor, Southern California.

Harvard social scientist Arthur Brooks noted last year that global research on happiness reveals “the United States dropped to its lowest ranking since that survey began—and that result was driven by the unhappiness of people under 30 in this country. So what’s going on?

What’s going on, indeed.

Family is definitely part of the story, both across the nation and in Arizona. Family instability is strongly associated with increased prevalence of depression in young people. As the figure shows, children in Arizona living in non-intact families are markedly more likely to be diagnosed with depression. Specifically, net of controls, girls are 60% more likely to be depressed and boys are 57% more likely to be depressed when they are raised in a home without both of their parents.

Figure 7. Percent of children ages 6-17 currently diagnosed with depression by family structure.

These findings are consistent with what Dr. Samuel Wilkinson, Professor of Psychiatry at the Yale School of Medicine and Associate Director of Yale’s Depression Research Program, has documented regarding the connection between family breakdown and the growing mental health crisis. As he wrote for the Institute for Family Studies, “Children, in particular, are more likely to experience mental health problems when they experience family breakdown.”

Arizona has a large minority of such children. And like kids across America, kids in Arizona are more likely to suffer emotionally when they do not enjoy the benefits of growing up in a stable home.

ACEs: Adverse Childhood Experiences

Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) are “potentially traumatic experiences and events” in a child’s life that significantly impact their physical, mental, and emotional well-being, from ages 0 to 17. These can be experiences of domestic violence, neglect, natural disasters, parental separation or divorce, homelessness, being involved in a serious accident, or losing a close family member to suicide, and more.

ACEs are deeply consequential for children and adults in America. The U.S. Center for Disease Control explains,

Preventing ACEs could reduce suicide attempts among high school students by as much as 89%, prescription pain medication misuse by as much as 84%, and persistent feelings of sadness and hopelessness by as much as 66%. Additionally, preventing ACEs could also reduce many health conditions in adulthood, including chronic diseases and behavioral health conditions. Estimates show that preventing ACEs could reduce cases of heart disease by 22% and depression by 78% for adults.

According to the Arizona Department of Health Services’ 2021 ACE report, “43% of children in Arizona experienced one or more ACEs.” They add this “is slightly higher than the national rate of 39.8%.”

Intact, married families are a clear and substantial protection against children experiencing one or more ACEs. Below are four ACEs experienced by family form for children ages 6 to 17 in Arizona. The protective effect of intact, married families is demonstrable. Net of controls, school-aged children in non-intact families are remarkably 274% more likely to experience at least one or more of the following ACEs compared to their peers growing up in an intact family in Arizona.

Figure 8. Share of AZ children ages 6-17 with ACEs, by family structure.

Arizona Governor Katie Hobb’s office rightly notes,

Arizona’s success and prosperity are fundamentally linked to our commitment to nurturing and safeguarding our children. Unfortunately, adverse childhood experiences can significantly hinder their development and potentially lead to more serious issues in the future.

Strong, thriving families are powerfully protective for kids across the state. Arizona’s government, community agencies, news media, schools, and houses of worship must move to publicize the value of stable, married families and to help parents forge strong relationships.

Child Poverty

It is extremely difficult for children to prosper in life when they live in poverty. Their schooling suffers. Their health lags. Their confidence declines. Their opportunities shrink. Their mental health and sociability decline. 

Poverty can even negatively affect the brain structure of children and adolescents in the regions supporting language, reading, executive function, and spatial skills. This decline is most pronounced for the most disadvantaged children. Poverty is a social cancer, slowly eating away at otherwise promising lives of vast potential.

Scholars and policymakers from diverse political perspectives have noted childhood poverty’s close connection to family breakdown or the family’s failure to form in the first place. Brookings Institution scholar Isabel Sawhill observed that the “proliferation of single-parent households accounts for virtually all of the increase in child poverty since the early 1970s.” Similarly, Marco Rubio, then U.S. Senator (R-FL), noted: 

The truth is, the greatest tool to lift children and families from poverty is one that decreases the probability of child poverty by 82%. But it isn’t a government spending program. It’s called marriage.

Thus, it is no surprise that in Arizona, children in married, intact homes are much less likely to be living in poverty. In fact, less than 1 in 10 children in intact, married families live in poverty in Arizona, compared to over 1 in 5 children with cohabiting parents, and  1 in 4 children in single-mother families.

Figure 9. Percent of children below official poverty line in AZ, by family structure.

Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Survey, we estimate that just 10% of Arizona children living in married, intact families fall below the official poverty line. This is far less than the 38% who live with single mothers, and 41% who live in cohabiting families. Therefore, it is not just the number of adults in the home, but the relationship between the adults and the children that seems most protective against child poverty in the state.

The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) accounts for unmarried partners who pool resources. Additionally, the SPM includes noncash benefits, adjusts for cost-of-living, and accounts for necessary expenses like taxes, child care, and child support payments. 

Using the SPM, we find that children from intact married families are less than half as likely to be living in poverty compared to children in single-mother or cohabiting-parent homes.

Figure 10. Percent of AZ children living in poverty, by race and family structure.

Family structure also explains much, but not all, of the disparities in child poverty across race and ethnicity in the state. 

Among White Arizonans, just 3% of children living in intact married families are in poverty, compared to 15% from unmarried or non-intact homes. Meanwhile, 14% of Hispanic, 20% of Native American, and 22% of Black Arizonan children living in intact married families live in poverty. This compares to 23% of Hispanic, 27% of Native American, and 31% of Black Arizonan children living in unmarried or non-intact families who are impoverished. So, even though there are racial and ethnic variations in the story, across the state, kids from a range of racial and ethnic backgrounds are less likely to endure the scourge of poverty if they live in an intact married family.

Figure 11. Changes in odds of poverty for children in AZ, by family structure, education, immigration.

Using data from 2005 to 2025, we estimated socioeconomic determinants of poverty, excluding income, in a multivariate analysis. Controlling for a child’s race, age, parental education, and parental immigration, we find that children from unmarried or non-intact homes are 104% more likely to be living in poverty. Children without a college-educated parent in the home are nearly 300% more likely to be living in poverty than those with a college-educated parent. Native American children are 163% more likely to be living in poverty than their White peers. These results indicate that family structure is one, but not the only, significant predictor of child poverty in Arizona.

Figure 12. Relative odds of family poverty in AZ, unmarried/nonintact vs. married intact families, by year.

We also conducted a multivariate analysis with an interaction term between family structure and year in the state. We discovered that in the past 15 years, family structure has become a stronger predictor of child poverty. In the late 2000s, Arizona children from unmarried or non-intact homes were 54% more likely to be living in poverty than their peers living with married parents. Remarkably, that number has risen to 136% for 2020 to 2025. In other words, family structure matters more than ever when it comes to protecting against child poverty in Arizona today.

But marriage does not only benefit children. Marriage benefits adults as well. This is what we examine next.

Section II. Successful Adults

There is no question that the Arizona Dream—the prosperity consistent with the state’s motto (“Ditat Deus”)—depends not only on children growing up in strong and stable families but also on adults forming such families. Just as marriage benefits children in Arizona, we also find that it benefits adults in much the same way.

A veritable mountain of research has demonstrated over the past half century that marriage boosts almost every important measure of physical, emotional, financial, and relational well-being for men and women. In fact, it would be impossible to capture all the benefits of marriage for Arizonans in one report. We know, for instance, from the broader research—including Brad Wilcox’s book, Get Married—that marriage surpasses health, money, education, and work as a predictor of adult happiness in America.

Among married people, who is happiest of all? That would be married couples with children—and by notable margins. This chart from Get Married breaks down the different relational categories.

Figure 13. Percentage of U.S. adults who are happy, by marital and parental status.

Beyond this happiness story, thousands of social science studies demonstrate that married men and women live longer, have healthier lives, earn and save more money, recover more quickly and successfully from illness, stay out of trouble with the law, are dramatically less likely to attempt and commit suicide, and are more likely to be emotionally healthy. In Arizona, for instance, medical research conducted at the University of Arizona College of Medicine–Phoenix demonstrates that those

who were divorced, widowed or never married had a 42 percent greater risk of developing cardiovascular disease and a 16 percent greater risk of developing coronary artery heart disease compared with people who were married.

Let us now move to another important well-being indicator: financial security.

The Financial Benefits of Marriage

There is no question that men and women who are married in the United States are better off financially. They enjoy higher household incomes, save more, and accumulate more assets over time. Across America, as married women and men head towards retirement, in their fifties, for instance, they “have a staggering ten times more assets than their divorced or never-married” peers with all other things being held equal.

One important financial factor that most people consider essential in realizing the American Dream is homeownership.

Homeownership

In the latter half of the twentieth century, homeownership surged in Arizona. This was a key mark of the state’s success in advancing the Arizona Dream. But homeownership has been on the decline among middle-aged adults in Arizona in the last four decades. In 1980, over 4 in 5, or 83%, of Arizonans ages 35–55 owned their home.

Figure 14. Percent of adults who own their own home in AZ, by year.

However, homeownership among middle-aged adults bottomed out in 2017 with 53% of adults ages 35–55 owning their home. Since then, homeownership has ticked up. Today, 62% of middle-aged Arizonans own their home.

Figure 15. Percent of AZ adults ages 35-55 who own their own home, by marital status.

But the post-1980 decline in homeownership was concentrated among unmarried Arizonans, who are markedly less likely to own a home, and increasingly so over this period. Consequently, the homeownership gap has clearly widened in favor of the married in recent decades.

If we wish to boost Arizonans chances at realizing the American Dream through owning a home, one way to do so would be to promote marriage. That’s because, by increasing income and assets, marriage dramatically strengthens the odds that men and women have the means to buy a home.

Figure 16. Percent of AZ adults ages 35-55 who own their home, by education.

This dynamic is clearly visible across educational lines in Arizona. Among married Arizonans ages 35–55, 84% of college-educated and 68% of less-educated adults own their home. This is dramatically higher than the 43% of unmarried college-educated and 25% of unmarried less-educated adults who own their own homes. 

Marriage also increases the likelihood of homeownership for those across various income groups in Arizona.

Figure 17. Percent of AZ adults ages 35-55 who own their home, by marital status and household income.

Among Arizonans ages 35 to 55, 51% of married adults in the bottom income quartile own their home, compared to just 36% of unmarried adults in the top income quartile. This demonstrates that across all income levels, married Arizonans are more than twice as likely as their unmarried peers to own their own home. 

Figure 18. Change in odds of homeownership in AZ by various characteristics

Indeed, in a multivariate model, being married is by far the strongest predictor of homeownership in Arizona among adults ages 35 and up, surpassing factors like income, education, and race. 

Homeownership is not just a personal benefit, either. It is clear that greater homeownership strongly improves the lives of others. It stabilizes and improves entire communities. It seems to foster the educational attainment of children in demonstrably positive ways. Few things determine the safety, quality, and security of Arizona’s neighborhoods more than owning a home. Thus, where marriage is stronger, so, too, is the fabric of communities across Arizona.

Marriage and Public Benefits

If homeownership is an indicator of prosperity, welfare receipt is an indicator of material want. Not surprisingly, marriage powerfully predicts lower public assistance, as measured by the receipt of food stamps, Medicaid coverage, cash welfare, or Social Security disability insurance in Arizona. While marriage protects both men and women from welfare dependence, it is a more powerful protector for women. This is because unmarried women are more likely to be caring for children than unmarried men. Specifically, only 15% of prime-aged (25-55) married men and women in Arizona receive welfare compared to 24% of unmarried men and 34% of unmarried women.

Figure 19. Share of AZ adults ages 25-55 receiving public benefits by marital status and sex.

These numbers likely underestimate total benefits received. National surveys tend to underreport the number of Americans who are receiving public benefits.

Arizona Families and the Common Good: The County Story 

Marriage doesn’t just benefit individual children or adults in Arizona; it also delivers fiscal savings and strengthens entire communities. We have already seen that children do better, at the district level, when they live in communities where marriage is the dominant norm. We see similar patterns when we look at county trends in family structure, crime, and poverty.

At the county level, Greenlee, Yuma, and Yavapai are most likely to have married prime-aged adults (25-54). These counties have, respectively, 61%, 59%, and 55% of such adults who are married. By contrast, Apache is least likely to have married adults, with just 35% of its prime-aged adults married. Mohave and Graham are tied at 51%, and Gila, Navajo, and Coconino are tied at 49 percent. The remaining counties, Pima, La Paz, Pinal, Maricopa, Cochise, and Santa Cruz, have between 50% and 54% of prime-aged adults who are married.

Figure 20. Percent of married adults ages 25-54 by Arizona county.

Research by economists Raj Chetty and Joseph Price indicates that communities marked by greater family instability across the United States have more incarceration and less economic mobility. We see parallel trends in Arizona. With the exception of Apache county, the county data generally indicate that violent crime is lower in counties across the state that have more married adults (ages 25-54).

Figure 21. Violent crimes per 1,000 AZ county residents against the share of married adults ages 25-54. 

Likewise, poverty is lower in counties with more married adults. For instance, in Maricopa county, 53% of men and women ages 25-54 are married, and the poverty rate is just 9 percent. By contrast, in Apache county, 35% of men and women in this age group are married, and the poverty rate is 29 percent. 

Figure 22. Share of prime-aged adults below poverty and share married by county in Arizona.

For a more prosperous Arizona, where communities and individual men, women, and children are happier, stronger, safer, better educated, less dependent on welfare, and better protected from poverty and abuse, we must promote a greater appreciation and respect for the power of marriage and healthy family life in the state. Increasing rates of marriage are essential for more Arizonans to realize the American Dream.

The State of Arizona Unions

We have made a research-based case for the ways that strong and stable families elevate well-being for men, women, and children across Arizona. But what is the state of Arizona families as a whole? The Family Structure Index, developed by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) in collaboration with the Center for Christian Virtue, tracks three key family metrics: marriage, fertility, and intact families. Specifically, we look at the share of prime-age adults (25 to 54) who are married, the number of children women will have in their lifetime, and the share of teens who will grow up with married parents.

With these three key metrics, we calculate a family structure score, which is then used to provide a ranking among states each year. Arizona has, unfortunately, consistently trailed most other states in the Family Structure Index. Using the latest data from 2024, we find that Arizona ranks 35th in the Union.

Figure 23. Arizona family structure rank among the 50 states.

Arizona’s consistent ranking over the years between 33 and 39 hides some nuance in the state’s changing family landscape. Relative to the whole United States, Arizona has a smaller share of prime-age married adults and teens in intact homes. Since 2020, the gap between the rest of the U.S. and Arizona has shrunk on these metrics, if just slightly. As we will show later in the report, the share of all children in Arizona living with married parents has been rising steadily since 2010.

Arizona’s total fertility rate has fallen at a significantly faster pace than the U.S. over the past 15 years, though it has remained near national levels since 2020. Together, these trends mean Arizona has jumped four places on the Index, from a rank of 39 to 35, since 2020.

Figure 24. Arizona and U.S. Family Structure Index.

Each of these components of the Family Structure Index—marriage, parenthood, and intact families—contribute to the health and flourishing of Arizona. We will now take a closer look at the underlying dynamics driving these trends, beginning with marriage.

Marriage Rate

Unfortunately, the marriage rate has fallen in the United States in recent decades. The same is true for Arizona.

In 2000, there were 45 newlyweds for every 1,000 single adults in Arizona. The marriage rate fell to about 30 in 2013 before flattening out for the next decade, following national trends. Overall, this means that fewer Arizonans are now able to take advantage of the benefits that marriage provides to men, women, and their children of all races and socio-economic classes than was the case at the turn of the century.

Figure 25. Arizona newlyweds per 1,000 single adults by year.

Divorce Rate

At the same time, Arizona’s divorce rate, like the rest of the nation, has been declining steadily since the mid-1980s. Is this because marriages in Arizona are more durable? 

Figure 26. Divorces per 1,000 married adults in Arizona by year.

In simple terms, yes. Arizona marriages have been more durable in recent years than they were at the turn of the century. This is partly because marriage has been declining, which makes the adults who do tie the knot more selective and intentional, and less likely to land in divorce court. This is good news for those Arizonans who are getting married. But the bad news is that dramatically fewer adults across the state are married.

Percent of Arizona’s Married Adults

Another way to measure marriage dynamics is the percentage of all adults living in married-headed homes. Nationwide, the  share of men and women who are married has recently declined to about 1-in-2.

Figure 27. Percent of AZ adults ages 18 to 66 who are married by year.

This flattening trend follows a broader U.S. pattern. It is up to Arizona’s various community institutions—churches, families, schools, city, county, and state governments, and individuals—to work toward the common goal of boosting the state’s marriage rates in order to elevate individual and collective well-being. 

One cause for the decline of marriage in Arizona is delayed marriage. In Arizona, as in the whole nation, young adults are often strongly encouraged to save marriage for their thirties. Additionally, a declining share of young adults report success in finding a partner. As a result, the average age of first marriage has steadily risen in Arizona. Using annual marriage data from the American Community Survey, we find that the average age of first marriage in Arizona rose from 28.8 in 2008 to 30.2 in 2024, following national trends.

Figure 28. Age at first marriage in Arizona.

As Brad Wilcox has recently argued, young adults are not benefiting from the movement towards later-in-life marriage. Encouraging marriage among young adults in their twenties is one way to build a strong marriage and family culture in Arizona.

Married and Unmarried Birth Rates

One of the most important indicators for child well-being is being born into a married home with one’s own mother and father and remaining there through adolescence. 

Figure 29. Percent of births to unmarried women in Arizona and U.S. by year.

The leveling off of nonmarital childbearing plus the decline in the divorce rate have important implications for the share of Arizona children who are living with married parents. The share of children living with married parents reached its lowest point in 2011 at 58 percent. Since then, Arizona has seen a small but steady trend upward. In 2024, 62% of Arizona children lived with married parents. This is an encouraging trend to be sure, but it is just under the trend for the nation,which is 63%, according to the 2024 ACS. Again, at least the trendline is going in the right direction. The state would be wise to boost it.

Thus, the share of children being raised by married parents is one of the most important indicators for future community growth and population well-being, as this drives so many other factors: physical and mental health, child longevity, educational success, behavioral problems at school and in the community, protection from abuse, and poverty.

One factor driving this trend is the unmarried birth rate in Arizona, which is 45.6% of total births, notably above the national average (of 40%).  However, following national trends, Arizona’s unmarried birth rate has leveled out since the late 2000s and remains generally steady. 

Figure 30. Percent of children living with married parents in Arizona and U.S. by year.

Unmarried Births by Race

Unmarried birth rates vary across race and ethnicity, both nationally and in Arizona. Arizona is just above the national average for unmarried births for Whites and Hispanics, and notably under for Black women.

Figure 31. Percent of total births to unmarried women by race and ethnicity for AZ and U.S.

As it stands now, White Arizonans make up the majority of the population. According to the 2024 American Community Survey, 51% of Arizonans are White, 31% are Hispanic, 4% are Black, 4% are Native American, and 9% are non-Hispanic of two or more races. 

Yet, the racial and ethnic character of the state is changing. Arizona is becoming more Hispanic by notable margins, while the White population is shrinking significantly with each decade. Among children, Hispanics are the largest group, followed by Whites. Other minority groups—Black, Native American, and Other races—are holding constant among Arizonans below age 50. 

Figure 32. Racial and ethnic composition of AZ residences by age group.

The changing racial and ethnic composition of Arizona will have an effect on future demographic outcomes, like the unmarried birth rate. Thus, the marital trajectory of births in the state will likely depend in large part upon whether or not unmarried childbearing among Hispanic women trends downward.

Unmarried Births by Educational Status

Trends in non-marital childbearing in Arizona also vary by education. A majority, or 85%, of children born to college-educated parents are born in marriage. But only 42% of children born to less-educated parents are born in marriage.

Figure 33. Percent of births in AZ to unmarried women by education.

The State of Arizona Family Structure

Still, most Arizona children (58%) live with their married, biological parents, although this is markedly below the national average of 65 percent. Overall, a majority of children in Arizona benefit from the premium of being raised by their own married mother and father.

About one-fifth of Arizona kids live with their single, biological mother, and just 6% live with cohabiting biological parents.

Figure 34. Percent of children in Arizona by family type.

When it comes to race, 69% of White Arizona children live with their married mother and father. Similar percentages of Native American and Black Arizona children (at 36% and 39%, respectively) are living with their own married mother and father. 

Meanwhile, 42% of Black children, 27% of Native American children, and a quarter of Hispanic children are being raised by single mothers.

Native American children in Arizona are twice as likely as Hispanic children to be living with cohabiting parents at 14% and 7%, respectively. Only 6% of Black children live with cohabiting parents, as do an even smaller percentage of White children.

Figure 35. Percent of children in Arizona by family type and race.

Hispanic children make up the plurality of children in the state, at 42 percent. White children make up 37% of the child population, followed by 8% who are Native American (subdivided into 5% who identify as Native American only, and 3% as two or more races), and 5% who are Black, 3% Asian, and 5% two or more races.

Where Do Arizonans Come From?

Just 39% of Arizona residents were born in the Grand Canyon State. Most of the migrants into Arizona hail from other American states—with 15% of those coming from the Midwest, while 18% are Westerners who decided they liked Arizona better. Just 7% came from the South, and 6% are from the North. 

But a large minority come from out of the country. According to the 2023 American Community Survey, 15% are foreign born, with 7% of those from Mexico, and 8% coming from elsewhere. These numbers, however, likely underestimate the share of foreign-born Arizonans, as response rates are significantly lower among Latin American immigrants and noncitizens ineligible for a Social Security number.

Figure 36. Percent of Arizona residents by birthplace.

Nativity and ethnicity are also related to family structure. Hispanic children in Arizona who have two U.S.-born parents are less likely to be in a married-intact family and more likely to be in single-father households, or to have no parents present, compared to those with one or more immigrant parents.

Figure 37. Percent of Hispanic children in AZ by family type and parent nativity.

Hispanic children with at least one foreign-born parent are more likely to be living in a married family than their peers with only U.S.-born parents. Something about being born and raised in the United States for Hispanic adults may be discouraging marriage as a foundation for their children’s lives.

Arizona Population Dynamics

As early as 2003, the Arizona fertility rate was well above the national average. Since then, the total fertility rate has plummeted and is about equal to the national level at 1.60.

Figure 38. Births per woman in Arizona and U.S. by year.

Fertility is a critical indicator of future well-being for Arizona. A state that is failing to have tomorrow’s children is one that will soon have a disproportionately mushrooming elderly population without the next generation of doctors, nurses, caregivers, farmers, business owners, inventors, innovators, teachers, and police officers—not to mention taxpayers and social security benefactors—that Arizona will need. 

Babies grow into the adults that make society work better in the future. States with a fertility rate as low as Arizona’s will have to rely heavily on outside immigration. The bad news is that nearly all developed countries (including Mexico), as well as surrounding states, are also now experiencing fertility rates well below replacement. They will be fighting to keep their own young adults from emigrating.

Sadly, peak fertility in Arizona was reached in 1990, after which the fertility rate dipped until a brief rise in 2007 to near 1990 levels. After 2007, it dropped significantly, resembling the slope of a daring playground slide. There will likely not be as many children born in Arizona as were born in 1990 for any time in the foreseeable future.

Figure 39. Average age at first birth for women in AZ and U.S. by year.

As with national trends, one cause of the fertility increase is the rising age of first birth. In Arizona, women typically become mothers around age 27—a steady increase from historical levels and 2.5 years older than in 2007. 

Drastically declining fertility is a very real and pressing problem for Arizona and its dream of a prosperous future. That’s because a thriving tomorrow requires plenty of babies being born today. That is clearly not happening.

Migration

Given these fertility trends, in this millennium, the majority of Arizona’s population growth will have to come from domestic and foreign migration. As shown below, foreign migration is powering population growth in Arizona right now, while domestic migration is falling. Census data indicate that the largest increases in international migration have come from Mexico and Latin American countries in recent years. But given today’s political climate and falling fertility in Latin America, it is unlikely that Arizona can rely on immigration to sustain its population indefinitely.

Figure 40. Components of changing polulation in Arizona (various) by year and income.

Section III: Policy Prescriptions

Arizona is a beautiful state with a profound outlook for the future. To fully realize its promise, Arizona must do the following to strengthen families: 

  • Increase the rate of marriage formation, as well as improve the health, stability, and longevity of its marital unions;
  • Make marital childbearing and childrearing important personal and civic goals, while also making parenthood and homeownership more affordable for all working couples;
  • Increase positive (e.g. involved family time, shared meals, books read, and games played together) and reduce negative (e.g., domestic violence, addiction, infidelity) aspects of family life;
  • Increase the time that parents are able to spend with their children; and
  • Educate the rising generation about the value of marriage and parenthood.

What steps can the state take to strengthen marriage and family life to advance these goals? The first step Arizona should take is to teach and promote what social scientists call the “Success Sequence.”

Success Sequence Education

The social sciences have discovered that some paths are more conducive to flourishing than others for today’s young men and women. One path, called the “Success Sequence”— advanced by Brookings Institution scholars Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill—is especially valuable for young adults.

The Success Sequence is a very basic and specific set of milestones in life associated with avoiding poverty and moving into the middle class or beyond. It is based on three basic life choices that can be accomplished by most people:

  1. Graduate from high school 
  2. Get and maintain a full-time job in one’s twenties
  3. Marry before having any children 

Young adults who complete these three steps are substantially more likely to realize the American Dream. In fact, they are nearly guaranteed  to do so.

Social science research informs us that a stunning 97% of young men and women who follow this simple sequence succeed in avoiding poverty in their late twenties and thirties.

Specifically, over 90% of Black, Hispanic, and young adults from poor families will avoid poverty as they move into young adulthood, if they follow this sequence. Finally, 86% of Millennials who followed the Success Sequence reached at least the middle class as young adults.

This makes the Success Sequence something that every young Arizonan should learn many times over throughout their developing years. They should learn it from their parents, schools, pediatricians, communities of faith, coaches, and extended family. The power of education, work, and marriage to lift people out of poverty is not widely known. Children and young adults in the Grand Canyon State deserve to learn this recipe to success.

This is especially true because the benefits of the Success Sequence extend beyond financial gain. Recent research by Wendy Wang at the Institute for Family Studies and Samuel Wilkinson at Yale University finds that the sequence is also associated with the emotional well-being and family stability of young adults. Young men and women who have followed all three steps are significantly less likely to be emotionally distressed and are substantially happier than those who have not. Isn’t that what we want for all Arizonans, young and old?

Specifically, young adults who follow each of the three steps have 50% lower odds of being emotionally distressed than their peers who have not, even after factors like race, ethnicity, education, and income are considered. They also enjoy more stable family lives.  For example, young women and men who followed all three steps were twice as likely to still be married in their thirties compared to their peers who had a child before or outside marriage, even after controlling for a range of sociodemographic factors.

Arizona’s young people deserve to know how education, work, and marriage are tied to greater financial security, emotional well-being, and family stability as they move into adulthood. The Success Sequence will give them a profound boost towards a happy and successful life, and each step in the sequence is relatively easy to follow. Arizona has the resources to do this. 

A range of curricula and programs convey the time-tested wisdom of the Success Sequence for young adults. Groups like the A&M Partnership, The Dibble Institute, The Ridge Project, Encompass Connection Center, and the Center for Relationship Education provide valuable resources that incorporate the sequence into curricula and programs providing relationship education to children and teens. 

For instance, outcome research on Love Notes from the Dibble Institute indicates that teens who participated in the program were 46% less likely to be become pregnant, significantly less likely to be sexually active, and more likely to avoid multiple sexual partners compared to similar teens who did not participate in the program.

What is more, opinion polling indicates that a clear majority of Americans—including a majority of Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites—support teaching the Success Sequence in public schools.

Accordingly, the Arizona Department of Education, along with local Arizona school districts, should incorporate the Success Sequence in various ways throughout schools across the Grand Canyon State. 

First, the Success Sequence ought to be incorporated into family life instruction in middle and high school. It should also be added to financial literacy instruction, which often occurs in high school. Schools should specifically explain how:

  1. A high school education, full-time work, and marriage before having children substantially decrease young adults’ odds of being poor and maximize their likelihood of moving into the middle class or higher;
  2. Marriage is associated with less loneliness, more meaning, and greater happiness for men and women today;
  3. A stable marriage increases the odds that children flourish educationally and socially, minimizing the odds they have trouble in school and with the law; and,
  4. Sequencing marriage before parenthood increases the odds that young men and women forge stable families and enjoy greater financial stability.

To do this, the Arizona Department of Education should consider the following policy suggestions as they incorporate the Success Sequence into public schools across the state:

  • Require high school students to complete, at least one course fully explaining the Success Sequence prior to high school graduation or receiving any general education degree. They should also demonstrate an understanding of the social science research on its links to poverty, economic success, happiness, and family stability;
  • Create a state-level committee that includes members of school boards and parents of children attending Arizona’s K-12 schools to review the grade-level standards, expectations, and instructional content that covers the Success Sequence; and,
  • The Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction should solicit evaluations that measure how well students are learning the three steps. The Superintendent should also sponsor evaluations of Success Sequence-related curricula to measure the influence on adolescent relationships, teen pregnancy, and marriage and family attitudes.
  • Schools should have older young adults who have followed and benefited from the Success Sequence regularly visit and speak at events,  and create social media resources featuring these adults to explain how following the sequence helped them attain a rewarding Arizona middle-class lifestyle.
  • Finally, the state and/or nonprofits should fund a Success Sequence PSA campaign that targets adolescents and young adults. This campaign should focus on offering compelling messages about the benefits of the sequence on social media platforms viewed by young adults.

Young Arizonans deserve every opporunity to realize the American dream. The Success Sequence is one of the most powerful, fiscally-responsible, achievable, and well-calibrated tools to give them.

Strengthening Marriage in the Grand Canyon State

As we have shown, marriage is associated with essential and substantial benefits for men and women, children, and the entire state of Arizona. Unfortunately, in recent decades, dramatically fewer Arizonans are choosing or able to marry. The reasons for this retreat from marriage are complex, encompassing culture, policy, and economic factors. 

In response to this retreat, the Arizona State Legislature should act to strengthen marriage in a variety of ways, including by educating  the public about the value of marriage for child well-being and human thriving, reducing the barriers that cause Arizonans to delay or forego marriage, and partnering  with community nonprofits that are doing relationship education for youth, as well as nonprofits that are counseling engaged and married couples. These efforts could be funded by allocating 10% of the state’s Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) budget to these activities, given that TANF is charged in part with promoting marriage and two-parent families.

Specifically, we recommend that the Arizona State Legislature:

1. Create a $20 million public education and media campaign focused on increasing the Arizona’s marriage rate and promoting strong and stable marriages.

This campaign should focus on young people, helping them to learn that marriage not only improves their lives, but the lives of any children they have, and the community at large. This campaign should particularly spotlight the emotional, financial, and social benefits of marriage for young adults, but also spell out the ways that strong and stable marriages benefit children and communities.

2. Address marriage penalties that discourage lower- and middle-income Arizona couples with children from marrying. 

In a whitepaper on fixing broken incentives in Arizona’s welfare system, the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity observed, “Arizona’s existing social welfare system can actively discourage work” by dramatically cutting back on means-tested benefits when family income rises, “impeding an important element for getting out of poverty.” Their point also applies to marriage. 

Consequently, the legislature should direct the state government to detail any marriage penalties associated with programs run by the state, including the Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG), Medicaid, and TANF. Then, where the state has authority to adjust program eligibility, it should minimize marriage penalties by doubling thresholds for married couples with children under the age of 5 (compared to single parents with the same number of children). Where the state lacks authority to adjust program eligibility, it should seek a waiver from the federal government to allow Arizona to make changes to programs like Medicaid to minimize their marriage penalties for lower-income families in the state. Finally, the state should use TANF funds to grant $1,000 to any married families with children under 5 who can document a net marriage penalty (based on potential lost child care subsidies, food stamps, housing, and Medicaid), using a platform like the Tax Policy Center calculator at the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. 

3. Reform the state’s standard deduction to be more marriage friendly.

To be fair, the state avoids several common structural features that penalize marriage. The flat personal income tax ensures couples are not bumped into a higher bracket if they get married. The Dependent Tax Credit, modeled on the federal Child Tax Credit, sets the phaseout threshold at a very high level and avoids marriage penalties by doubling the threshold for married parents ($400,000) relative to single parents ($200,000).

But Arizona has one major provision that penalizes marriage for single parents. Like many other states, it uses the federal standard deduction to set its own standard deduction. The value of the standard deduction varies based on filing status. In 2026, the standard deduction is $16,100 for single filers and $32,200 for married filers.  By doubling the standard deduction for married filers relative to single filers, Arizona avoids penalizing marriage for those without children. The problem is that Arizona also provides an additional filing status for single filers with dependents—Head of Household (HoH)—that provides a more generous standard deduction ($24,150 in 2026) relative to single filers without dependents. This creates a unique marriage penalty for single parents who are likely to see their taxes go up if they get married.

Simply eliminating HoH filing status and having parents file as either single or married would eliminate marriage penalties—but also make single parents worse off and do nothing for struggling married parents who have been facing rising costs for years. Instead, the legislature could pair HoH elimination with an increase in the Dependent Tax Credit from $100 to $305 for children under age 17, to ensure all families are made better off by focusing tax relief on hardworking parents raising the next generation of Arizonans. 

4. Create new and boost existing programs that help couples create strong, thriving marriages, from the start.

This can be done by improving premarital education and promoting it to the public. First, the Arizona legislature should pass a law waiving all marriage license fees for couples who show proof-of-completion of an approved premarital education course. This can be implemented through a website that helps Arizona couples find and connect with religious and secular providers of premarital education in their local communities. Connecting individual couples with others in their communities who can serve as teachers, champions, and cheerleaders for their marital success is essential to building a pro-marriage culture that succeeds. Indeed, research shows that couples who receive premarital education are more likely to forge successful marriages. 

Second, Arizona should publicize the value of premarital education for married couples and the marital license discount they receive by taking it. This can be part of a multifaceted public education and engagement campaign to promote marriage across Arizona. In boosting premarital counseling, Arizona should look to the experience of neighboring states like Utah, Oklahoma, and Texas. 

These states have enacted policies to encourage and incentivize couples to engage in premarital education. Each have met with varying degrees of success. A study examining the effectiveness of these state programs found that oversight and implementation were the key factors influencing their success. For instance, one study found that Texas’s early efforts at providing formalized premarital education programs, which began in 2007, were successful and correlated with a 1.5% decrease in the divorce rate statewide. The authors of the study noted that while the decrease in divorce rate may seem small, the measure focused on all marriages, including those that began before the state implemented its premarital education policies. Based on this, the authors conclude that the actual divorce-rate reduction effect attributable to the Texas program is likely higher. Arizona has the benefit of being able to learn from both the successes and failures of states that have done important marriage innovation before them.

Spreading the Word. One lesson from this research is that Arizona should launch a public campaign to promote the benefits of premarital counseling and the locations where it can be accessed. Utah launched such a campaign in 2008 and focused on “18- to 29-year-olds with a strong (but not exclusive) emphasis on promoting increased use of premarital education services.” Based on data from market research, the firm contracted to run the campaign developed ads for television, radio, print, and internet sites targeted at the key demographic. A study of the campaign’s effectiveness published in the Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy discovered that over the course of five years, the effort:

  • Increased awareness of the program from a baseline of 17% at its inception to 38% at its apex. Young couples became two to three time more likely to be aware of the program and the services it provided through this media campaign.
  • The percentage of persons who participated in premarital education increased from 32% to 39% over a five-year period.

Clearly, a well-designed and implemented public education ad campaign can have a measurable effect on the public, influencing citizens to take a desired action. Arizona should launch an effort to do just this when it comes to premarital education. 

Arizona has been a world leader in business innovation and development. It can grow beautiful, world-class golf courses in the desert, after all. It can certainly take the lead in promoting marriage and family. 

The Grand Canyon State can help its young people rise above poverty and soar into middle class life with creative thinking and a strong drive to not only raise awareness about the value of marriage among diverse populations but, like Utah, also direct the public to accessible, research-backed premarital education resources that propel them to sustained success. 

Bridging Arizona’s Gender Gap

One of the reasons marriage and family life are in retreat across America today is the decline in the fortunes of young men.  As the Brookings Institution’s Richard Reeves documented in Of Boys and Men, too many men are floundering in school, work, and life. Subpar academic performance, lower rates of college enrollment, and rising rates of idleness and underemployment among young men matter not only for them but also because they make them less “marriageable” in the eyes of young women. Today’s growing gender gap—where young women are doing comparatively better at school, work, and life, while young men are doing worse—is a recipe for disaster when it comes to family formation and human happiness. 

This gender gap is also playing out in Arizona. For instance, 67% of the lowest GPAs for school children in the state are among boys, versus 33% among girls,  and 60% of full-time college students are female, whereas only 40% are male. To bridge this gap, and lift the fortunes of adolescent and young adult men, the state legislature, Arizona Department of Education, and schools should take three steps:

  1. Make schools more boy friendly. Schools should hire more male teachers, extend recess time for children in elementary school, and revisit their pedagogy and curricula with an eye to creating an educational context where boys are about as likely as girls to do well. The state should also introduce single-sex charter schools. All of these measures would give boys in K-12 schools a chance to see their performance and attachment to education rise.
  2. The Arizona legislature should also double the funding for Career and Technical Education (CTE) and apprenticeship training. Right now, the state devotes markedly more money to conventional 4-year colleges and universities than it does to CTE for high school-aged and young adults. But the evidence suggests that high-quality CTE can boost the employability, wages, and marriageability of young men. Moreover, most Arizona young adults, especially young men, will not earn a 4-year degree. Accordingly, the Arizona Department of Education should double the funding it spends on CTE and apprenticeship training and, if necessary, take that money out of the budget it devotes to conventional higher education in the state.
  3. Finally, the legislature should target the gaming industry, given the role that gaming plays in degrading the social and human capital of teenage boys and young men. Arizona should tack a 20% sin tax on gaming platforms, gaming software, gaming apps, and in-game purchases. This money could then be spent on a public campaign to educate teenage boys and young men about the costs of excessive gaming and to motivate them to turn their time and attention to real-world activities. Hopefully, the added costs of gaming and this public campaign would discourage adolescents and young men from wasting excessive amounts of time on gaming. 

Young women across the ideological spectrum have expressed frustration with how few of their male peers measure up to their expectations regarding education, employment, and maturity. Taking steps like these would help Arizona boys and men flourish, which would be good for them, the women in their lives, and the fortunes of dating, marriage, and family formation in the state. 

Family Friendly Technology in Arizona

The last decade-and-a-half has witnessed the rise of “electronic opiates”—social media, video shorts, gaming, and now, AI companions—that are degrading our children’s capacity to concentrate, read, and learn, inhibiting the development of their social skills, and polarizing them ideologically by sex. These developments have had profoundly negative consequences for the quantity and quality of parent-child relations, dating, and marriage.

Arizona has already passed important laws to protect children from the negative effects of Big Tech, including requiring age verification of pornography sites, as well as a law to ban smartphones during school time. These are critical steps to keep children safe in the digital age and to recover a freer, more beautiful childhood. Arizona can build on these gains in four ways.

  1. Require age verification for users of human-like AI and restrict access to adults. AI systems are intrinsically unsafe, with "alignment," the technical challenge of ensuring that AI systems pursue pro-social ends, being currently unsolved. It may never be solved. But whatever the case, we have already seen that AI chatbots, especially those that are marketed as AI "companions," have willingly fed into the delusions of the mentally unstable and have preyed upon the depressed, even going so far as convincing young Americans to commit suicide. In fact, Google and Character.AI recently settled a major lawsuit brought by the parents of Sewell Setzer III, who, at age 14, killed himself to be with a Character.AI companion forever, after it had tricked him into becoming romantically enmeshed with it. IFS has endorsed the Young People's Alliance Human-like AI Framework for regulating AI that is designed to evince human-like features. This would protect Arizona's kids from predatory AI chatbots.
  2. Pass the App Store Accountability Act (ASAA). In 2023, IFS co-produced the first paper ever to argue for the value of requiring age verification through the app store. Many of the fundamental problems that children face online come through apps—not on the free internet—most of which are accessed through the app store. Furthermore, because data is the most precious commodity available online, the app store is structured to convince children to give away their data with the downloading of every app, which they agree to do when they perfunctorily agree to the terms of service. That is, app stores are systematically facilitating the formation of contracts between underage Americans and Big Tech companies, often at the price of their extremely sensitive personal data. ASAA disrupts this system by requiring formal age verification and informed parental consent for every app download and in-app purchase. This addresses the root causes of childhood addiction to apps. 
  3. Arizona should build on its policy to remove smartphones from schools by also advancing policies to minimize screen time in the classroom. Arizona is one of 21 states (and counting) that have passed laws to remove smartphones from schools. This is common sense legislation that will pay enormous dividends for kids, families, and schools. But a growing body of research is showing that educating children by screen, through school-issued Chromebooks, is driving steep declines in reading and math scores. It also is the open door to pornographic material for many kids, who, as research by Common Sense shows, are accessing porn on school-issued devices. Recently, Utah passed legislation to become the first state in the country to limit access to classroom technology to prescribed times and tasks. This cutting-edge policy is likely to foster a far richer (and safer) educational environment in Utah, and Arizona should do the same. 
  4. Bonus: Follow Australia's lead and ban adolescents under 16 from accessing social media in Arizona. This is a narrower policy than the App Store Accountability Act, which covers apps in general, not just social media apps, but it would save many kids in Arizona from succumbing to anxiety, depression, and worse.

The Faith Factor: Religious Participation and Family Stability

Strong, stable families do not form in a vacuum. They are sustained by institutions and communities that provide support, guidance, and a normative framework for navigating the challenges of marriage and parenthood. Among these institutions, religious communities play an outsized role. 

A substantial body of research demonstrates that regular religious participation—particularly weekly church attendance—significantly strengthens marriage, family stability, and child outcomes across all the metrics examined in this report. Adults who attend religious services regularly are more likely to marry, less likely to divorce, and less likely to have children outside marriage. Their children, in turn, show better educational outcomes, lower rates of depression and adverse childhood experiences, and reduced poverty rates.  Weekly church attenders have divorce rates 25-50% lower than those who rarely or never attend religious services, and women who attend religious services weekly are 60-75% less likely to have a nonmarital birth compared to women who never attend. For children, the benefits are equally pronounced: those whose families attend religious services regularly are more likely to excel academically, with higher GPAs and test scores, and adolescents who attend religious services regularly report 30-40% lower rates of depression and anxiety compared to non-attending peers. Analysis of Arizona's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data shows that adults who reported weekly religious attendance during childhood experienced nearly one full ACE fewer on the 10-point scale—representing approximately a 40% reduction in adverse childhood experiences compared to those who never attended religious services as children.

The mechanisms through which religious participation strengthens families are multifaceted. Religious communities provide clear teaching that prioritizes marriage, discourages divorce except in extreme circumstances, and emphasizes parental responsibility.  They create dense social networks of families with similar values, providing practical support—child care, meals, financial assistance—along with accountability, mentoring, and modeling of healthy relationships. Many congregations offer evidence-based premarital counseling, marriage enrichment, and parenting classes that strengthen relationship quality and family functioning. Religious teaching emphasizes forgiveness, humility, and reconciliation—skills essential to navigating marital conflict and preventing divorce. For struggling families, churches often provide material resources through benevolence funds, job networks, and housing assistance that reduce economic stress, a major threat to family stability. Arizona counties with higher rates of religious congregation membership show 6-9 percentage points lower child poverty rates, after controlling for education, race, and family structure, suggesting religious communities provide economic support beyond what family structure alone predicts. In short, religious participation operates as a form of social capital that partially compensates for economic disadvantage and reinforces the family commitments essential to child flourishing.

Yet Arizona's religious landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for family strengthening. According to the Pew Research Center, 58% of Arizona adults identify as Christian, while 31% are religiously unaffiliated and rarely or never attend religious services. Approximately 27% of Arizona adults attend religious services weekly, slightly below the 31% national average. More concerning, religious participation is declining among younger Arizonans: only 22% of Arizona adults under 30 attend religious services weekly, compared to 35% of those over 50. This generational decline threatens future family stability, as the protective effects of religious participation cannot operate if young adults are disconnected from faith communities. At the same time, Arizona's approximately 4,000-5,000 religious congregations represent a vast, largely untapped infrastructure for family support—with thousands of locations across every community, built-in trust relationships with families, volunteer networks for mentoring and counseling, and economic resources for material assistance.

Any serious effort to strengthen Arizona families must engage, equip, and empower these faith communities—not through government funding of sectarian activities but through partnership, recognition of their irreplaceable role, protection of their religious liberty, and celebration of their positive impact on family outcomes. The data is clear: religious participation is one of the most powerful predictors and protectors of family stability in Arizona. Reversing the decline in religious engagement, particularly among young adults, should be a priority for policymakers, community leaders, and all Arizonans committed to building strong families and realizing the Arizona Dream.

Conclusion

Arizona stands at a crossroads. The research presented in this report demonstrates unequivocally that strong, stable families—particularly those anchored by marriage—are powerful engines for realizing the Arizona Dream. From the classrooms of Higley to the neighborhoods of every county across the state, we see that children raised in intact, married families perform better in school, experience less poverty, suffer fewer mental health challenges, and are dramatically better protected from adverse childhood experiences. Adults in strong marriages enjoy greater financial security, higher homeownership rates, and less government dependency. Communities with more married families generally see less crime and poverty. 

The marriage premium is real, substantial, and essential for Arizona's future prosperity. Yet marriage rates have declined, nonmarital childbearing remains stubbornly high, and too many Arizona children are growing up without the stability that married parents provide. In fact, even though the family story is improving for children in the state, kids across Arizona are still less likely to enjoy the shelter and security of a stable married family compared to kids across the United States. The question before us is simple: Will Arizona leaders act decisively to increase the odds that men, women, and especially children across the state enjoy strong and stable families, or will the Arizona Dream slip away for future generations?

The path forward requires courage, creativity, and commitment from every sector of Arizona society. State government must lead by implementing the Success Sequence in schools, removing marriage penalties from welfare programs, reforming tax policy to support families, investing in premarital education, and protecting children from predatory technology. But government cannot do this alone. Schools must educate young Arizonans about the proven pathways to success. Businesses should support working families through family-friendly policies. Faith communities should do more to champion marriage and provide couples with the tools to build lasting unions. Media should tell stories that celebrate marriage and the virtues that make for thriving families. And individuals must bravely follow the harder but more rewarding path of the Success Sequence—getting an education, working full-time, and embracing marriage before parenthood—as they move into adulthood. 

Arizona has always been a frontier state—a place where pioneers came to build something better. Today's frontier is not geographic but cultural and social. By strengthening marriage and family life, Arizona can once again become a beacon of the American Dream, proving that "Ditat Deus"—God Enriches—remains more than a motto but a living reality for all who call the Grand Canyon State home.


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